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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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Needless to say, almost the entirity of the ECM, GFS and GEM are neither particularly mild nor cold, with each only having fleeting visits to the UK. As stated above, rainfall looks to be the main player with snow always a possibility further north. So on that, there shouldn't be any need for coldies or mildies (horrible word for spring) to bicker in the near term at least.

Can't say I'm particularly surprised at this week's outlook. In years gone by, unsettled starts to March have been more common that not, whether by means of a strong jet with gales that peters out and moves north as the month progresses, or with general cyclonicity where lows aren't particularly strong but hang around dumping a lot of rain. Thinking back, all of the colder Marches in my lifetime have also had low mean pressures e.g. 2001, 2006, 2008, (2010 - the second half cancelled out the first half), 2013 and maybe now 2018. Let's just hope it's not incessantly dull, given how sunny February was (and to a certain degree January).

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4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

What did we learn from the cold spell? Well the GFS isn't totally useless, cold blocks can be pushed away quickly and never trust one run on a model which shows you what you want to see.:nonono:oh and don't knock those who tell you it's going to get milder:wallbash: when they are telling you the facts. As for March, it is looking damp and cool from this morning's  model output, but I still see another surprise in store later this month, for those who like cold and snow.:good:

I agree I mean just look at the uncertainty in the longer range! 

graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=0&ville

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Well after having a couple of weeks aniticipating the beast from the east and the ups and downs of model output on the way to it's arrival.

We are now left with operational runs at least which all seem a bit meh in comparison.

Some of the extended ensembles seem to hint at hieght rises to our northeast or north west but will they be close enough to nudge

the troughing over/close to the UK into a more favourable position.. once again as so often with the weather its a waiting game.

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Models are just so boring after this snow event. Low pressure just flip flopping around, nothing to really get the juices going. Maybe everyone has got model fatigue after the last month, but I’d say the next 10-14 days are going to be pretty boring.

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Well I suppose we are now on Spring watch which will probably mean storm watch as well, which would be next weekend.

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The current pattern is very flabby with lots of low pressures meandering around 

The story of the next couple of weeks could be a very wet first half of march with an associated flood risk down in the south west and Midlands!

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Models are just so boring after this snow event. Low pressure just flip flopping around, nothing to really get the juices going. Maybe everyone has got model fatigue after the last month, but I’d say the next 10-14 days are going to be pretty boring.

Yup unless its excessive rainfall and high winds you are after then there's nothing to really appeal to anyone at the moment. The storm next weekend looks a concern to me as its drawn from the Azores region. Could be nasty although I can imagine there will be four potential scenarios which could play out and this is the subject of my next ensemble swingometer.

image.thumb.png.451626356b13cf70f381cb8c0cff00f7.png

So a deep low crossing the UK appears likely according to the GFS ensembles. 1 or 2 members keep the low further south due to blocking over Greenland. This would lead to a cold UK with the potential for a snow event.

The ideal scenario for mildies would be for the low to stay out west, reducing the amount of rain and keeping the UK locked into a milder pattern.

Alternatively the low doesn't develop and the UK is stuck in the same repeating pattern of cool and showery weather (doesn't appear likely now).

The major majority have the low coming straight into the UK from the SW/SSW meaning the potential for rapid cyclogenisis is there with heavy rainfall and a pronounced mild sector for a short time.

Interestingly following on from the wake of a deep low many ensemble members follow this up with a SLP increase over Spain so the Atlantic could be slowly awakening from its slumber. Mind you its never usually that active in March...

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Comical differences between the Ecm 00z / 12z at T+240 hours, the 00z showed a long draw warm southerly from north africa and the 12z shows a Northerly starting to set in from the arctic!!..that really inspires confidence doesn't it!:D

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Posted (edited)

Looks like back to square one on the output, west based setup returns again.

ECH1-0_ath5.GIFECH1-216_gco6.GIF

 

However, I like the look of that shortwave to the North West at 240.

 

ECH1-240_axf9.GIF

 

This is one type of setup best from mid march onwards if we are to get a pasting.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted (edited)

The ECM develops more amplitude upstream towards day ten and earlier still a chance for some snow in the far north .

The track of the low to the sw and the angle of attack still to be nailed down , really depends if any cold air is mixed out before the precip.

The shallower the low to the sw the better for those chances, the UKMO mixes out the cold so there is some disagreement on this.

The current risk is currently far north of England and Scotland. It’s just a transitional event even if it happens unless there some trough disruption to the low.

Moving forward towards day ten we’d like to see the pattern adjusted se because of high pressure over the Med , really need low heights to dig  further into central southern Europe.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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UKMO extended is very unsettled with rain and strong winds widely the best chance of something drier is limited to northern Scotland

ukm2.2018031112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.b4ee7f5e67b8cd3da4f611941564d7f3.png

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Atmosphere needs to settle down after the beast.  Hopefully models will show a northly toppler soon with potent snow showers from increased convection.

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26 minutes ago, Winter80s said:

Atmosphere needs to settle down after the beast.  Hopefully models will show a northly toppler soon with potent snow showers from increased convection.

Hopefully, they won’t 😉

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6 minutes ago, Winter80s said:

Atmosphere needs to settle down after the beast.  Hopefully models will show a northly toppler soon with potent snow showers from increased convection.

Evening ,! Well LOLS!:rofl: Its Spring now , and most are jaded with cold ,well I am anyway.!:cold: As it gets milder ,the only talking point will be ....Wait For It ....RAIN:wallbash:

dad.png

dadx.png

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12z ECM London ens has fairly good agreement up to the 12th the gap on the 10th is hardly anything if we are honest the colder end to ECM has more clear split

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.34b7d3258eb10c07b381f585bcd5afaf.png

The split at the end highlighted on the charts

Op                                                                    ens

ECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.d09b84a98a5a5644ba2e00f8425640c2.pngECMAVGEU12_240_2.thumb.png.96d9a9bd0e9f1a65fe49f538b02c99a2.png

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Comical differences between the Ecm 00z / 12z at T+240 hours, the 00z showed a long draw warm southerly from north africa and the 12z shows a Northerly starting to set in from the arctic!!..that really inspires confidence doesn't it!:D

Sure is the ideal time to start using, down to 144 h, comparing like with like to see if either show any real consistency. Then favour, if they both do, the one that looks most like the anomaly charts at 500 mb that is!

The lastest NOAA charts,see below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Make of it what you like but it is rather different to the one I posted this morning, just 24 hours apart. It needs a couple being consistent to believe what it shows in my view.

Definitely losing my marbles, ignore, it is much the same as the one I showed so some consistency for a 500 mb flow from north of west!

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted (edited)

Next Thusday anyone:D

gfs-2-204.png?18gfs-2-210.png?18gfs-2-216.png?18

gfsnh-0-216.png?18

Edited by Allseasons-si
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2 big snow events on the 18z GFS.

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very interesting GFS run at the moment ,lets see where we are this time tomorrow after 4 more runs and 2 ecm runs ,dont think winter is quite finished yet , well i,m turning in now with dreams of a bit more Snow ,cheers gang :hi:

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Followed by a Northerly to preserve snow cover for ages - March 1995 anyone?

gfsnh-0-216_bag2.png

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

2 big snow events on the 18z GFS.

The first one you talking about from 144 hrs Feb?,looks a bit marginal though and mainly for the hills,but this is a better run from the 18z.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The first one you talking about from 144 hrs Feb?,looks a bit marginal though and mainly for the hills,but this is a better run from the 18z.

This one -

gfsnh-0-162_hca3.pngNetweather GFS Image

Another tonking for Wales.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, legritter said:

very interesting GFS run at the moment ,lets see where we are this time tomorrow after 4 more runs and 2 ecm runs ,dont think winter is quite finished yet , well i,m turning in now with dreams of a bit more Snow ,cheers gang :hi:

It's nice to see you posting again Legritter,i hope all is well my friend and i hope you are coping well after your loss,cannot be easy for you,and we are here for you with every support should you need it:)

yes the gfs is a good run and was showing this in previous runs over the days as was ecm at one point,it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and we get one last blast of winter before spring comes(although i don't know when that will arive)

sweet snow dreams buddy:D

Edited by Allseasons-si
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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This one -

gfsnh-0-162_hca3.pngNetweather GFS Image

Another tonking for Wales.

Yes,it's this one that sends the LP west to east instead of SW to NE on previous runs dragging that bit more colder air behind it then the next system(second snow event) runs on a more southerly track,could be game on again at the end of the week:)

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