Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

So... those suspicions knocking around are bearing fruit all at once this evening. Too far out at this time to consider it a victory of course.

We'll almost certainly have a smaller prize to play for this time, but it should also be much less inclined to 'overshoot' the UK like the last one did; better chance it's followed up by blocking Greenland-Iceland as opposed to Greenland-Canada.

Usually I dislike cold spells mid-March onward, but if 850s could get to -10 or below while the high is not too close by, the large snow/hail shower potential is of interest given that even with the unusually dry imported air and weaker sun that we saw to end February, some showers did manage to initiate over land.

You see, having seen a half-foot of level snow last week, I am not so worried about whether much accumulates (more than very briefly like I saw in March 2013; gone within half an hour). For this reason chasing this 'child of the beast' will not cause me anywhere near as much tension. Very nice to take a more relaxed approach for a change .

The extended eps continue to be solidly mid Atlantic ridge/euro trough.  

[Purga]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

So... those suspicions knocking around are bearing fruit all at once this evening. Too far out at this time to consider it a victory of course.

We'll almost certainly have a smaller prize to play for this time, but it should also be much less inclined to 'overshoot' the UK like the last one did; better chance it's followed up by blocking Greenland-Iceland as opposed to Greenland-Canada.

Usually I dislike cold spells mid-March onward, but if 850s could get to -10 or below while the high is not too close by, the large snow/hail shower potential is of interest given that even with the unusually dry imported air and weaker sun that we saw to end February, some showers did manage to initiate over land.

You see, having seen a half-foot of level snow last week, I am not so worried about whether much accumulates (more than very briefly like I saw in March 2013; gone within half an hour). For this reason chasing this 'child of the beast' will not cause me anywhere near as much tension. Very nice to take a more relaxed approach for a change .

Oh yeh...?

Singularity at the end of next week

C'mon Beast pleeeeaasseee don't miss us - pleeeeaaseee !

[Bottled Snow]

15 minutes ago, snowray said:

It would seem to me looking at that chart that UKMO are running with the ECM at day 7. Wouldn't it be fun if the 18z were to come on board this evening?

Been hints for a dew days for The Beast Part 2 in my opinion. GEFS have been sniffing around an easterly last few days. On Tuesday ECM showed an incoming easterly at day 10 and dropped the idea but brings it back today at earlier timeframe. UKMO yesterday and today looked good and last but not least, the King of Beasterly modelling The ICON has come on board today. Not a done deal by any means but we are in the game once again. We waited years for a true beast and would be ironic if got two in a few weeks. I will take a beasterly at any time of year so bring it on.....

[shotski]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The extended eps continue to be solidly mid Atlantic ridge/euro trough.  

Also strong anomaly over Greenland @270 hours. Maybe a link up. 

[Purga]

3 minutes ago, shotski said:

Also strong anomaly over Greenland @270 hours. Maybe a link up. 

Hints are there in the METO extended text forecast.

[Frosty.]

Hmmm just looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean tells me something wintry could be lurking in the woodshed during the second half of march or at least the last third!..I'm looking NE and there is plenty of cold there..here's hoping!

[ICE COLD]

ECM Day 6 

GFS 18z Day 6 

Differences already at day 6 

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM Day 6 

GFS 18z Day 6 

Differences already at day 6 

I know where I’d put my eggs lol! Encouragingly UKMO is somewhat alongside ECM low pressure disrupting southeast into the mainland WAA shoots up. Interesting times.  

[ICE COLD]

Talk about blocking across the Northern hemisphere. We get close to a beast on the 18z , but doesn't  quite get there . 

[Allseasons-Si]

W.T.F has happened tonight!!!,just come in from work to view some more juicy charts,have i stepped into a time machine and gone back to last week lol

i didn't get much snow from the last beast,i just hope beast number 2 delivers

other models are toying with heights pushing to our NE and the latest 18z gfs also toying with this scenario at day ten

then drops a trough down the uk at the end of the run

i didn't think i was going to post some more wintry charts this late on but WOW there is and will be plenty to discuss this week i would feel.

ok!,who's gone off on one

a trend

 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Talk about blocking across the Northern hemisphere. We get close to a beast on the 18z , but doesn't  quite get there . 

1-3 months ago, this thread would have been busy on this alone. I wouldn’t be complacent, winter can pounce back in March I often think of it as a changeover month from winter to spring. No sign of changeover yet.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Can't believe this is happening lol ?. When I see the Icon , GFS and UKMO earlier I just New the easterly was coming on the ECM . We haven't had an easterly in years , are we about to get 2 in 2 weeks ? Let's hope so ?

Not happened yet but i want it too

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The gefs 18z wanting to build heights to our NW at day ten,was bluearmy onto something,he said this in his post earlier.

and in FL,cold air flooding down from the NE,yes please

followed by a runner low,what more can we ask for

Edited March 9, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Philbill]

Are we seeing the northern hemisphere climate struggling to recover from such an epic SSW?

Factor in the solar output diminishing over the next few years. Maybe this will become the norm for the coming winters. 

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Philbill said:

Are we seeing the northern hemisphere climate struggling to recover from such an epic SSW?

Factor in the solar output diminishing over the next few years. Maybe this will become the norm for the coming winters. 

A final SSW is taking place and the NH would take some recovering after this i would of thought Bill.

 

as for the ecm,it was a cold outlier in the eps as with the gfs op and control,lets see if there is more solid output on this in the morning.

 

Edited March 9, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, let's have an encore, the 12z runs have reignited hopes of a wintry spell in less than 10 days!..fingers crossed etc

After the Beast, what next?..another Beast hopefully!!

Frosty...

Have you hired the London buses to provide power for computers that run the models.? 

MIA

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18 hrs run has a less favourable start point re the troughing near the UK between T120 and T144hrs hrs and still manages to develop the Scandi block although it doesn’t manage to get the deeper cold sufficiently westwards .

I’d take that as a good sign rather than a negative suggesting the signal is growing for changes towards mid month .

If we’re to have one last colder spell it would be great to see that go out with a bang.

 

[jethro]

54 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gefs 18z wanting to build heights to our NW at day ten,was bluearmy onto something,he said this in his post earlier.

and in FL,cold air flooding down from the NE,yes please

followed by a runner low,what more can we ask for

Beastie be gone, your time is up

I'm looking for sun, my Pimms to sup

You had your fun, you made me shiver

I confess at the thought of you, I was all a quiver

But I'm dreaming of roses and bare feet on grass now

So beastie be gone, you can bugger off, take a bow

 

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, jethro said:

Beastie be gone, your time is up

I'm looking for sun, my Pimms to sup

You had your fun, you made me shiver

I confess at the thought of you, I was all a quiver

But I'm dreaming of roses and bare feet on grass now

So beastie be gone, you can bugger off, take a bow

 

Beasties come fourth, your time is near 

I’m looking for some snow, to make sidney bundle in fear 

A white March veneer, so queer. Oh put the kettle on....dear  

Mm enough there losing the plot should have been a poet! To make this on topic, all models now latched on height rises to north east a very recent trend. With trough digging se, very interesting mean at T168.

Not far out we’re talking.. I’d way rather it see it go cold than this crud. 

[Eastnorthwest]

Ma mama morning all 

After a run of a few days of early spring like conditions with shed loads of rain ECM puts in a return of the beast next weekendwhich best surprise given the AO is showing no real signs of going positive at the moment ,as daniel s quoted March is nature's transfer month from winter to spring and sometimes can be colder than December 

The severe cold at this stage is hinting at being brief from the east but as it's far out  at 7 days time from  now this could develop or be a non starter/one off run and needs to be cep an eye on in the coming days 

[Eastnorthwest]

GF'S 00Z run is hinting of heights building over Scandinavia but at this stage as you would expect not as strong feed of cold air from the east by 192 hours but the signs of a pattern change are there

That low moving into France only has to intensify on future runs and a not so angry beast might make it to our shores, 

Still a long way off but the foundations for another cold spell have been concreted, now we need them to set ,then wait for the brickie s to arrive and start laying some blocks in the coming days 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The extended eps continue to be solidly mid Atlantic ridge/euro trough.  

Yes, definitely the most likely route to cold, even more defined signal on the 0z GEFS.

P6 the best example - blizzards galore.

Edited March 10, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, definitely the most likely route to cold, even more defined signal on the 0z GEFS.

P6 the best example - blizzards galore.

There were a few clusters on the eps so no surprise to see the op on an alternative route. 

the ens in general show too much westerly momentum for the scandi ridge to gain anything but transient traction but this looked the case yesterday morning and the 12z suites changed the trend somewhat. Whilst the mid Atlantic ridge continues to look the most likely route forward, how this actually manifests is unclear. Low heights and slp over Europe centred Italy seems more clear. However, the Azores ridge will not be absent as occurred a couple weeks ago so this is another variable to take into account. 

likely to stay on the cold side but with the Azores ridge able to push ne, couldn’t rule that out either. 

[Summer Sun]

Better support between the ECM Op and ens this morning now the Op has dropped that cold air from last nights run between the 17th & 19th D10 the op is on the warm side

 

Edited March 10, 2018 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

Just watching the 06z come out and occurred to me that the polar high which is drifting towards scandi on this run doesn’t have any high heights associated with it so this could be a further difficulty looking at the means/anomolys and spreads on heights.