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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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The far north still clinging on to colder air for a few more days but by the weekend signs of something warmer from the south as finally the flow veers from the continent.

UW96-21.GIF?03-07

The effects of euro ridging and the upper trough just to our west.

The Gefs charts show the warmup  comparing days 2-4 and then 5-7

viewimage.pbx?type=cfsvens;date=20180403viewimage.pbx?type=cfsvens;date=20180403

With the path of the Atlantic systems still tracking a way south though we are still looking at further changeable weather with rain or showers moving east from time to time but as others have commented certainly feeling somewhat warmer than recent weeks- at last.

Short term Thursday looks about the best for outdoors this week as a weak transient ridge moves across before the next set of fronts approach the west during Friday

  fax60s.gif fax84s.gif

It seems NW Europe and in particularly the UK is a magnet for the track of the lows into next week.

ECM mean chart day 8

EDM1-192.GIF?03-12

So we continue to wait for signs of the first settled and warm spell this Spring and in the meantime it looks like the best we can expect is the odd drier brighter day between those Atlantic systems.

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59 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

So we continue to wait for signs of the first settled and warm spell this Spring and in the meantime it looks like the best we can expect is the odd drier brighter day between those Atlantic systems

The 06Z OP was a big step away from previous runs, Phil. Here's the Control at T+192:

gens-0-1-192.png

More akin to what we saw through the winter with the energy heading SE and heights building to the north. The modelling of Greenland and the North between OP and Control couldn't be more different with the Control suggesting a strongly negative NAO (at times west based so milder for us) but ending with a strong ridge SE from Greenland.

The GEFS at T+192:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

Two distinct clusters to my eye - one represented by the OP, one by the Control.

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t120 on ICON 12z and the Azores high looks a bit stronger than the 00z

12z

icon-0-120.thumb.png.341b4529062b711759c99f578cde7c51.png

00z

icon-0-132.thumb.png.43b4e77303e0cf30de956fca94178948.png

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Slight difference between GEM and GFS this afternoon you can either have an easterly or a westerly

gem-0-192.thumb.png.6ecda352c3c2bbdf7dc987cbac529549.pnggem-1-192.thumb.png.7e7a3c1e8c7b2126c5e7b7108d4b01f7.png

gfs-0-192.thumb.png.f3c012548fa54216c53aa0dc07b71ceb.pnggfs-1-192.thumb.png.da23525d595b2ed2bc2a3739e0fc6e68.png

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Let’s not sugar coat it...output still looks rubbish, the settled signals are disappearing fast, and it looks like more rain on the way. Settled spring weather truly on hold.

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Posted (edited)

The deep low GFS develops mid next week isn't able to move east due to the high which means it sits out west throwing bands of rain our way as it gradually loses intensity

gfs-0-192.thumb.png.fd5e2377a35d6493e1cdd7ef74e738b8.pnggfs-0-264.thumb.png.d26f171a4cb05db044146113b168c8eb.pnggfs-0-300.thumb.png.b450d78c11b49b45f4f9eb857ccc76e7.png

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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Quite a while since the snow row on the London ens showed 0 throughout

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.fb0f834e0c9998affd48f9d2411b9b0a.png

 

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Evening all :)

Plenty of interesting output around this evening. I thought earlier in the day as per the 06 GEFS clusters we had two distinct routes - one involved a return of the Atlantic while the other kept northern blocking and a trough over Europe or to out it very crudely - westerlies vs easterlies.

GFS 12Z Control at T+192:

gens-0-1-192.png

A beautifully negatively tilted trough sliding SE into Europe with heights to the north.

GEM 12Z OP at T+192:

gem-0-192.png?12

Not much comment needed.

ECM 12Z OP at T+192:

ECM1-192.GIF?03-0

A halfway house of sorts ?

GFS 12Z OP at T+192:

gfs-0-192.png?12

Following the westerly theme of the 06Z OP - will be interesting to see if it maintains this in the morning but ECM and GEM are keener on building a European trough leading to a potential standoff between HP to the NE and SW and LP to the SE and NW .

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I must be honest, even though dry and settled looks unlikely. I would probably take the GFS evolution which keeps a trough close to our west so we would have showers or longer spells of rain but the temperatures would not be too bad.

gfs-0-192.png?12   gfs-0-240.png?12

The ECM evolution looks pretty chilly with a lot of cloud moving in from the north sea and always the risk of rain towards the south east portion of the country.

ECM1-192.GIF?03-0   ECM1-240.GIF?03-0

 

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UKMO extended looks like it has winds coming in from the east with some rain in places with the Azores moving a bit further north keep the deep low at bay a bit longer

ukm2.2018041012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4a51cfbf1a3e7bfffb51e16ce1d97e83.png

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Certainly firming up on another easterly (trending colder over time if the euro trough stays solid). Well supported on spreads, ens and ops. 

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Posted (edited)

A cold end to the Ecm 00z with another Easterly!:shok::cold:..the excitement in here is...non existent!!:laugh:

216_thickuk.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850.png

b4a1da991a5c03539e371bb60a54aa40.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Yes Frosty it's interesting we keep seeing these repeated attacks from Scandi/Siberia .is this still being caused by the SSW. at end of Feb? Seen more in the last few weeks than the last decade,very unusual.

 

Shame most posters disappear in early spring to witness it.Respect to you and Summer Sun for posting throughout. the year.

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Certainly seeing how a SSW in late February then ruins the early / mid part of spring when it comes to average / warmer weather. 

Some members did warn of this back in Feb. Whilst repeated Easterlies is interesting from a synoptic point of view, I am over cold now personally. Give me 20c and sunny.....please!

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Posted (edited)

GEM also shows some colder air right at the end of its run this morning

GEMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.ebfdd46db2e7e076231ee343a7449557.pngGEMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.f462b5b5cc3e9b7acd0875c900021c9a.png

On the other hand, GFS has temps not far away from the seasonal average

GFSOPEU00_252_1.thumb.png.b0e00e1870756c2e10024f36907d77bb.pngGFSOPEU00_252_2.thumb.png.bd9a503b8d745ce6b100a16ffac03e29.pngGFSOPUK00_252_5.thumb.png.9a8746573d372ad5edeace5dab804750.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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52 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Certainly seeing how a SSW in late February then ruins the early / mid part of spring when it comes to average / warmer weather. 

Some members did warn of this back in Feb. Whilst repeated Easterlies is interesting from a synoptic point of view, I am over cold now personally. Give me 20c and sunny.....please!

Is it only the SSW though? I think the quiet sun and the east QBO may be playing their part.

I wonder for how long we can hold on to the east QBO...

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If we compare the 850's at t144 UKMO certainly looks warmer than ECM for western Europe the best temps for the UK would be closer to average towards the SE corner elsewhere probably a bit below normal

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.8129efceb9e67ee27fde5f34a4d4f4c6.GIFECM0-144.thumb.GIF.b972a5f4d9b3bc33a297c33bf0e446ce.GIF

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Certainly firming up on another easterly (trending colder over time if the euro trough stays solid). Well supported on spreads, ens and ops. 

Not enough EPS members back the actual depth of cold showing on the op judging by the mean to be confident of another potent cold spell though unfortunately.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If we compare the 850's at t144 UKMO certainly looks warmer than ECM for western Europe the best temps for the UK would be closer to average towards the SE corner elsewhere probably a bit below normal

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.8129efceb9e67ee27fde5f34a4d4f4c6.GIFECM0-144.thumb.GIF.b972a5f4d9b3bc33a297c33bf0e446ce.GIF

Yes it's absolute pants!..I either want deeper cold as per Ecm 00z or much warmer..which isn't showing..yet!:)

Edited by Frosty.

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The 7-day forecast mean shows England and Wales around or a bit above average more of Scotland becomes closer to average though still a bit below normal in places

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.7b8b438bd0c78e64b58e6d21db1c8337.png

Some of the warmest temps are shown to be in Germany, Poland, Czech Republic & Slovakia

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Thank goodness the 00z EC was a cold outlier at day 10, not sure many would relish the cold easterly it offers for mid-month

EC00z_graphe.thumb.png.ef8ad69762b3c4587aa2dec4f37a3e33.png

Fairly good agreement from GFS + EC ops and ensemble guidance for a block to develop to the north and trough over mainland Europe allowing easterly to develop from day 7

test8.thumb.gif.730f4f505ab13a23c0ebbb09af89f6a5.gifeps_z500a_nh_37.thumb.png.d7fde4a56c7810c2bc9dcc0902d098ad.pnggefs_z500a_nh_37.thumb.png.55d1832044503713d50b1c643f659396.png

But hopefully the easterly will drag in milder air sourced from SE Europe rather then cold air from NE Europe!

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Easterlies in April are generally horrible affairs with cool grey conditions, drizzle and murk!

For any hardened coldie still seeking something wintry a northerly is preferrable.

Thankfully the ECM op isn’t supported towards the end of its run, of course in winter we’d like its op run and want it to verify but now this late I’m hoping no!

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Easterlies in April are generally horrible affairs with cool grey conditions, drizzle and murk!

For any hardened coldie still seeking something wintry a northerly is preferrable.

Thankfully the ECM op isn’t supported towards the end of its run, of course in winter we’d like its op run and want it to verify but now this late I’m hoping no!

Although tbf it is supported to a certain extent on the GEFS with a cold clustering, here's to a cold showery outbreak and hopefully 15c maxes in summer with slate grey skies and a raw nagging breeze.

graphe3_1000_252.14999389648437_31.56999

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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