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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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My fellow coldies may call me a traitor but I don't care, it's april now and I would like some proper warmth!!..the Ecm 12z supplies it!:D🌞🌞🌞🔥

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My fellow coldies may call me a traitor but I don't care, it's april now and I would like some proper warmth!!..the Ecm 12z supplies it!:D🌞🌞🌞🔥

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Wouldn't call you a traitor lol. You have and most on here have a magic switch that changes your brain from wanting cold to wanting warmth. I'm just not made right (literally) as I don't have that switch.

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Posted (edited)

Another brilliant update from GFS 

The 7-day forecast mean is slightly above average for England and Wales

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.cc27da935f7fcab39ab82229c1d0078a.png

As for the 7-day trend chart, next weekend is it quite simply sensational more than 10c above average for some parts

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.26264b56925ddca175104044831a40d4.png

giphy.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted (edited)

Maybe a nice surprise easterly from ECM?

image.thumb.png.529ff292c127be9a14f56fdd65ff0eb3.pngimage.thumb.png.cf9bdec9d148197e2d56ccece981abb3.png

image.thumb.png.af7969ff4e03c53f6b86008db05115d8.png

Specially for the traitorous Frosty!

:rofl:

 

Edited by Purga
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Posted (edited)

After the initial burst of warmth, we might have to go through a few cooler days whilst the high get's sorted and back into position, this was something that was showing on GEM 12z yesterday

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89471-model-output-discussion-after-the-beast-what-next/?page=100&tab=comments#comment-3844328

ECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.1a65d76471935d6b88dddc2ba67dd25b.pngECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.cb89ca92ac3a192df3bbfce5fa89f434.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.fb5d60114747409de8486bd169c6fca4.png

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted (edited)

Nice end to the Ecm 12z with high pressure taking centre stage, hopefully it would continue to drift slowly eastwards beyond day 10..fingers crossed we see a decent settled spell soon, it's looong overdue!!🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

As for the 7-day trend chart, next weekend is it quite simply sensational more than 10c above average for some parts

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.26264b56925ddca175104044831a40d4.png

giphy.gif

I'm not sure that's quite how those charts work Gavin, they're a temperature trend chart - so it's the difference between the temperatures at day 1 (which in those regions under cloud and rain/sleet/snow tomorrow will probably be rather depressed) and those at day 7 - so a very good trend and nice to see some warmer temperatures on the way, but 10c above average would be a bit extreme - that would put those parts of Northern England under the most extreme trend anomaly there at around 20-21c (which will not be happening we can quite safely say!).

They instead show that the temperature will be 10c warmer in a week's time, which will be pretty welcomed for many 

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice end to the Ecm 12z with high pressure taking centre stage, hopefully would drift slowly eastwards beyond day 10..fingers crossed we see a decent settled spell soon, it's looong overdue!!🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞:)

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2

With no major blocking to our east, it shouldn't have many issues drifting that way I'll take a few cooler days after the initial warmth if it means a more sustained spell of high pressure can develop

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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Another brilliant update from GFS 

The 7-day forecast mean is slightly above average for England and Wales

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.cc27da935f7fcab39ab82229c1d0078a.png

As for the 7-day trend chart, next weekend is it quite simply sensational more than 10c above average for some parts

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.26264b56925ddca175104044831a40d4.png

giphy.gif

I suggest you go to Siberia for some real warmth for the next 3 months ! :wink:

image.thumb.png.be32c23d92e125fc5e0dae3e07aeeb31.png

Looks average to cool at best in the UK :laugh:

 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, snowking said:

I'm not sure that's quite how those charts work Gavin, they're a temperature trend chart - so it's the difference between the temperatures at day 1 (which in those regions under cloud and rain/sleet/snow tomorrow will probably be rather depressed) and those at day 7 - so a very good trend and nice to see some warmer temperatures on the way, but 10c above average would be a bit extreme - that would put those parts of Northern England under the most extreme trend anomaly there at around 20-21c (which will not be happening we can quite safely say!).

They instead show that the temperature will be 10c warmer in a week's time, which will be pretty welcomed for many 

Considering it reached 22C in early April last year here, it certainly could happen.. though I don't think it will. 20C in April is really not that uncommon.

Edited by cheese

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice end to the Ecm 12z with high pressure taking centre stage, hopefully would drift slowly eastwards beyond day 10..fingers crossed we see a decent settled spell soon, it's looong overdue!!🌞🌞🌞🌞🌞:)

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Yep - should get a decent frost out of that with these uppers in place

image.thumb.png.74100c6008c33e63e6d49249eb6a8c41.png

:D

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

With no major blocking to our east, it shouldn't have many issues drifting that way I'll take a few cooler days after the initial warmth if it means a more sustained spell of high pressure can develop

Yes absolutely, and at this time of year even with colder uppers, in the strong sun it will feel pleasant. If the ECM run comes off in its latter stages, that high will inevitably drift east and there is plenty of heat building in the Med for us to potentially tap into if we get a southerly.

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4 minutes ago, Purga said:

I suggest you go to Siberia for some real warmth for the next 3 months ! :wink:

image.thumb.png.be32c23d92e125fc5e0dae3e07aeeb31.png

Looks average to cool at best in the UK :laugh:

 

sounds wonderful. might actually be able to sleep this summer

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Always a good indication of higher pressure about is the precip spikes we can clearly see 2 spells where they are very low 5th to 8th ish and 13th onwards

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.9f072c97406e00dee656776fb68fb8f9.png

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I'd be happy with an average summer if it also meant we had average sunshine, ie every month from May to August getting at least 200 hours.

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24 minutes ago, Purga said:

Specially for the traitorous Frosty!

:rofl:

 

Steve Murr was looking for plumes recently so I'm not traitorous at all:D it's reasonable for even coldies to look for warmth from now on and there is good support from the models for a significantly warm few days from friday and peaking next weekend with temps in the high teens celsius and maybe a notch higher!:)

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20 minutes ago, cheese said:

Considering it reached 22C in early April last year here, it certainly could happen.. though I don't think it will. 20C in April is really not that uncommon.

Ohhh I'm not suggesting that it's impossible to reach 20c in April, far from it. Just that it's not in the current scope of forecast modelling :)

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I think barring an 81 redux (which is statistically even rarer than episodes like 47 and 63), I think its time to accept that the closed season is now upon us and retire from the thread, at least we now know that the second attempt at contemporary winter theory has failed and we can get big easterlies again, i told you all that we just needed a reduction in solar activity and it would come eventually, here's to a cool showery 15c July and August while we wait for business to resume later in the year again.

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The warmer air has been squeezed tonight back to 1 day on the ECM & potentially the UKMO to be replaced by a cold high pressure.

Max here today 7c- A cold start to the month!

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Settled it certainly looks, ECM at T240

ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

How warm is another matter, I still think it might be a slow gradual progression towards summer.  T850s at same time

ECM0-240.GIF?01-0

Beats all this rain though!

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Evening All . ! At last something to look forward to , Proper Spring looks like coming at the end of this week , A dramatic warm up looks quite likely as I mentioned last night , and this is gaining momentum , if these charts verify we could see our first 21c/70f by the weekend .the first time since October 16th last year. May just get the shorts out....:yahoo::yahoo::yahoo:

ELO.png

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Settled it certainly looks, ECM at T240

ECM1-240.GIF?01-0

How warm is another matter, I still think it might be a slow gradual progression towards summer.  T850s at same time

ECM0-240.GIF?01-0

Beats all this rain though!

Wouldn't it be great if an Ecm day 10 chart verified for once!..if it did it would show the high slowly drifting eastwards into a more favourable position with temperatures gradually rising after a cold start..as I keep saying, hopefully we will see a pleasant anticyclonic spell towards mid april..I think most on here would agree.:)🌞🌞

Edited by Frosty.
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26 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Steve Murr was looking for plumes recently so I'm not traitorous at all:D it's reasonable for even coldies to look for warmth from now on and there is good support from the models for a significantly warm few days from friday and peaking next weekend with temps in the high teens celsius and maybe a notch higher!:)

Mmm... looks like peaking at about 14C at best with a lot of rain about acc. to the precip spikes.

image.thumb.png.405be00b272df30565ce08a381f0ba1d.png

Personally I'd prefer the cold / cooler weather with some decent sunshine and chilly nights with nice low dewpoint air over us.

:good:

 

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ECM monthly issued on March 1st

Seasonal_Anomalies_T2m_20180301_m1.png

And the final assessment for March

ANOM2m_CFSR_GFS_1803_monthly_europe.thumb.png.e31577388d21ce3fb92850f22f6f73e8.png

A pretty good effort it has to be said

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Purga said:

Mmm... looks like peaking at about 14C at best with a lot of rain about acc. to the precip spikes.

image.thumb.png.405be00b272df30565ce08a381f0ba1d.png

Personally I'd prefer the cold / cooler weather with some decent sunshine and chilly nights with nice low dewpoint air over us.

:good:

 

Depends which model you're looking at, the Ecm 12z would be a lot warmer than 14c next saturday, at least further south / southeast!:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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