Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends on an increasingly warm note with the added risk of some rain in the far south possibly thundery?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is very close to bringing up some milder air as well might take a few goes until the high over mainland Europe gets into position properly

[jvenge]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM ends on an increasingly warm note with the added risk of some rain in the far south possibly thundery?

Stunningly beautiful. I think that should bring some surface temperatures to 20-21 to my part of the World next weekend.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z turns into a cracker towards the end, never mind flaming june..more like flaming April! ??????

[Dr cat]

London ENS

[Summer Sun]

ECM for Monday shows the rain moving north as it gets into Wales and the Midlands it turns to snow during the day it continues to move north as it does so milder air gets into the south turning it back to rain here

GIF if you prefer to view it that way ?

Edited March 31, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

06z has cancelled the warm-up

 

[Leon1]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

06z has cancelled the warm-up

 

Maybe I wouldn't mind, but being in the south is just going to be more horrid weather. For me now, it's bring on the warmth or proper cold. Definitely nothing in between.  

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Maybe I wouldn't mind, but being in the south is just going to be more horrid weather. For me now, it's bring on the warmth or proper cold. Definitely nothing in between.  

Might just be a rouge run though it does show what could happen if the high doesn't sit in the right place

[Frosty.]

Amazing Gfs 6z operational with cold air fighting back again and again with snow, frosts and ice at times well into early april!❄❄⛄⛄

Edited March 31, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Model..Gfs 6z operational

Date involved..10th April 2018

Reaction...Oooh matron!

Edited March 31, 2018 by Frosty.

[Leon1]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Model..Gfs 6z operational

Date involved..10th April 2018

Reaction...ooh matron!

Wow! What a stonker!

[Summer Sun]

The 06z ens is still on course to build pressure as we move through towards mid-April

 

 

Edited March 31, 2018 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

The odds on a surface high sitting to our nw, n or ne as we head through week two pretty good now. I would favour ne at the moment. how low will pressure be to our south?  that will dictate how flabby the high would be on its southern flank. 

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters D12 - still looking mainly blocked to the east, probably leading to something warmer but a few possible flies in the ointment.

[Frosty.]

Interesting GEFS 6z mean, cold air is pushed away northwards early next week but then there is a suggestion it could return southward again after midweek before being pushed north again and returning south again..(yo-yo effect)..so, there could be a spell of snow early next week across the central swathe of the uk, especially across higher ground spreading north to scotland on mon night and through tuesday and followed by milder air and rain / showers from the south but as I said, that might not be the last of the wintry weather...looking further ahead towards mid April, there are signs that we may see high pressure for a welcome change bringing a spell of pleasant spring weather to most of the uk, at least for a time!???

Edited March 31, 2018 by Frosty.

[Derecho]

Swingometer updates

Not much has changed in the forecasts since midday yesterday when looking at the ensembles on the whole:



- Another cyclonic start to next weekend looking increasingly likely
- Many of these show a big clash in airmasses, quite the temperature gradient
- If we get lucky a high may sit over us. Although we would be in the cold air we need some dry weather. Yesterday saw 50mm of rain here in Southampton alone!
- No obvious trend in mid April yet, it was looking as though it could turn notably warm yesterday perhaps. That signal has now faded somewhat.
- It would be great if the ECM occurred but I think it went off on one!

[damianslaw]

On balance the models continue to paint a rather unsettled cool outlook, the dominant force remains strong heights over northern lattitudes and a southerly tracking jet, with the trough setting up shop over the UK and finding it difficult to tear itself away from us, not surprising given the forcing in place due to the features mentioned.

As we move further into April, we may see stronger ridge development to our NE and pull in a more settled continental feed, but nothing overly mild it would seem, and I suspect we will continue to see low heights languishing to our SW which could mean a quick return to cyclonic conditions overhead. These kind of synoptics are very common in April, fine margins between cold and mild are often evident, and strong contrasts can occur in short distances. Monday will be a case in point, southern parts might squeeze maxima into the teens, northern parts will struggle to get much above 3 degrees, with many hovering around freezing under any snow that falls.

[Summer Sun]

For most of England and Wales mild and wet looks to be on the way on Easter Monday northern England and especially Scotland looks most at risk of some heavy snow at times

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

12z GFS has a more prolonged spell of snow, more especially for Scotland. The front takes quite a while to make any progress, giving a few hours of heavy snow if you're in the right place (me hopefully ). 

Temps barely rise at all from Northern England northwards, dewpoints also remain around freezing or just below for a good while as well. 

 

Some folk might get a surprise on Monday morning, because with evaporative cooling taken into consideration the freezing level might not be that far from sea level (for a while at least). 

Edited March 31, 2018 by Ross Andrew Hemphill
Grammar

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z looking warmer than the 06z next Saturday

12z

06z

[Mike Poole]

First a take on the snow potential for Monday, here's the HIRLAM cumulative snow in the next 48 hours:

So really for Wales and the north only.

At T144 looks like a promise of spring, various takes on it, here's GFS 

Looking good, GEM not quite as good

UKMO could go warmer here:

I still think the smart money's on a warmer settled mid month, let's see what happens.

Edited March 31, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

Good news GFS 12z has not brought that cold air south like the 06z

12z

06z

[Frosty.]

I want to see plenty of charts like this from the Gfs 12z through this summer as it would deliver some major heat ?????..

[Summer Sun]

GEM is also moving to the milder and more settled picture though it requires a couple of goes to get there with some rain at first

1st attempt at the milder air away from Scotland brings some rain

Cooler air then spreads south as the high begins to move in

Once the high is in the air cold air moves away

On this dull and wet Easter Saturday, we an eggcellent chance of an improving picture from the back end of next week