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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
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Message added by Paul

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15 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 18z operational hints at a colder more blocked patterrn towards the end of March with high pressure to the north / northwest so hopefully for coldies the longer term signals will continue to show encouraging signs for a cold sting in the tail to march to help us through the mild unsettled crud in the short / medium range!:) 

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56 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

Very old news.

I wouldn't even bother with even entertaining this tweet days old 7th of march.

Although little shallow blocks floating around on the ECM one south Greenland and one cutting through to our north it really is pointless.

Cool and wet so far is the best we can hope for.

Wintry weather in mid march and April is just a waist of spring.

I'd be extremely surprised if we get anything all that exciting regarding cold will coming along.

We're stuck in a very messy pattern ATM.

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Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

The question will it be enough to wake The Murrmeister from his spring/summer slumber. lol

Well the UKMO and GFS are starting to climb aboard the Siberian express anyway.

UN144-21_xnz0.GIFgfsnh-0-210_uwy7.png

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well the UKMO and GFS are starting to climb aboard the Siberian express anyway.

UN144-21_xnz0.GIFgfsnh-0-210_uwy7.png

I think its a strong possibility that we could get some form of an easterly later in the month. Its been something that has been seen regularly during previous cold starts to Spring. 2013, 2006, 2001 and 1996 for example all saw additional attempts of cold easterlies after cold starts to each respective month.

Spring is unsual in that the North Sea temperature anomaly is quite persistent. For example a cold February is more likely to mean a cold March and April and vice versa.

So I wouldn't be surprised if 2018 followed suit. A few minor changes could leave us poised by T144 and give us a much colder then average March.

It'll be time to update the swingometer soon...

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Could be a good few days of model watching coming up 🙂. 

GFS 12z nearly gets the beast in , are we heading for another easterly??? 

IMG_1883.PNG

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Comes close on this run but doesn't quite make it.

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No comment on the Icon?

iconnh-0-180_ppo9.png

I will be watching the icon closely over the next few runs , it did pretty well on the lead up to the height rise over scandi the other week . Looking interesting again 😁

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The UKMO looks likely given its evolution upto T144hrs to develop a Scandi block earlier and further west than the GFS.

The GFS has that more rounded troughing near the UK at T120hrs , the UKMO sharper and then at T144hrs is already building heights nw ahead of that .

I wonder if we’re seeing the slowing zonal winds beginning to show up.

A reversal is forecast although not to the extent of the recent SSW and we saw what a mess the models made of that in the run up to the very cold spell last week.

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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO looks likely given its evolution upto T144hrs to develop a Scandi block earlier and further west than the GFS.

The GFS has that more rounded troughing near the UK at T120hrs , the UKMO sharper and then at T144hrs is already building heights nw ahead of that .

I wonder if we’re seeing the slowing zonal winds beginning to show up.

A reversal is forecast although not to the extent of the recent SSW and we saw what a mess the models made of that in the run up to the very cold spell last week.

Only the operationals though, the ensemble means were pretty much rock solid.

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2/3 Ensembles now going for deep cold from the East ( PTB 8/13 )

Look for that to increase - !

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only the operationals though, the ensemble means were pretty much rock solid.

This wont be quite as conclusive as the high pressure block isnt quite as prominent as it was in the last scenario...

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only the operationals though, the ensemble means were pretty much rock solid.

Do you remember there was a lot of drama , at one point some ops dropped the idea and we had a couple of rubbish ECM runs.

That was a stronger signal this time it might be the final warming. Sometimes that doesn’t deliver much although it’s often later than what’s expected this time.

I think if we’re to see a mini beast it will accelerate with the drop in the zonal wind starting on the 11th and the reversal around the 16th helping it further west.

So landing date around 17/18 March, if it happens ! 

Edited by nick sussex
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Do you remember there was a lot of drama , at one point some ops dropped the idea and we had a couple of rubbish ECM runs.

That was a stronger signal this time it might be the final warming. Sometimes that doesn’t deliver much although it’s often later than what’s expected this time.

I think if we’re to see a mini beast it will accelerate with the drop in the zonal wind starting on the 11th and the reversal around the 16th helping it further west.

So landing date around 17/18 March, if it happens ! 

Which reversal nick?  we are soon seeing a complete reversal top to bottom north of 70 so seeing the modelling heading into wedges and blocking is no surprise. The final warming at 10hpa predicted for around 20th March 

interestingly, the gefs at 60N have a slightly stronger zonal flow than average in the trop for most of the next fortnight. 

Still think the nwp is unclear re Scandi height rise or mid Atlantic height rise

maybe one leads to two as per last time though not many runs have a Scandi high for more than a couple days

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37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

2/3 Ensembles now going for deep cold from the East ( PTB 8/13 )

Look for that to increase - !

Here are the London and Berlin ens, it seems to me something very cold is brewing to our east with upgrades in the next couple of days for us looking likely.

graphe_ens3.gif

graphe_ens3-1.gif

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The Gfs 12z came very close to being Epic with Beast No2 making it as far west as the north sea..who knows..maybe winter isn't finished with us yet!!..I hope:):cold-emoji:

12_240_mslp850.png

12_240_preciptype.png

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Looking back at the last incursion from the east, we saw the initial deep cold pool head to our south with the second deeper cold push making a direct hit. On the eps spreads from this morning, the initial cold pool heads toward se Europe and the broad pool then expands from Germany towards us. 

All eyes on the ec op dribbling out 

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Something's brewing....

with tonight's UKMO continuing from the 00z and the Icon looking seriously poised at 180 a slimmed down (but still potent) repeat of the beast is not out of the question.

Icon 180

IMG_3421.thumb.PNG.c5a9ce6878315ebbff005cbd0d785620.PNG

UKMO 144

IMG_3419.thumb.PNG.acd318d5cc1cfcbd55cb3ee92b05d1a2.PNG

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ooooh yes

655696FD-2BCE-4F98-BA89-669BDFB2A9E4.thumb.png.b568ea102bed0e8437c7fc3eb64e6bd1.png

 Not sure of the model lol, but some much needed vertical WAA there !

Edit...

ECM on one lol

IMG_3422.thumb.PNG.346dd91328db67db2e4796eb63393571.PNG

Edited by chris55

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Aye guys, things are indeed looking up...I'll remember to clean my windows for this one, too!:yahoo:

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Just now, chris55 said:

 Not sure of the model lol, but some much needed vertica WAA there !

 

ECM !!!

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