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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
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A fresh model thread as we enter a new phase of weather post-beast. 

As always please keep it to the models in here. 

Want to view the model outputs?
You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:

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GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
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NetWx-MR
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Snow forecast and precip type
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This mornings eps firming now up on a mid atlantic upper ridge which is likely to become a marked wedge through week 2

how that manifests itself in nw Europe will depend on the east euro upper ridge. It it establishes then a jet on a sw/ne axis will likely keep us close to or under troughing. If it doesn’t then the jet will run into se Europe and we will become prone to sliders as the wedge forces the Atlantic trough to disrupt and run se.

The gefs playing with this evolution but not with any gusto yet. 

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Day 7 this morning we have ECM with a deep low to the south-west whilst UKMO has a deep low much further north

ecm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4cc43801ed98cff523acc53e36e4fd00.pngukm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ce0071e6d2dd3c31e65952b06bd55435.png

Either way no desperately cold air in sight this morning

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.09e2abca2de2f73e20455b6468240fdd.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.d9a9b6bc2652b357b4088f2520d6fe6a.GIF

:)

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13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 7 this morning we have ECM with a deep low to the south-west whilst UKMO has a deep low much further north

ecm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4cc43801ed98cff523acc53e36e4fd00.pngukm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ce0071e6d2dd3c31e65952b06bd55435.png

Either way no desperately cold air in sight this morning

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.09e2abca2de2f73e20455b6468240fdd.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.d9a9b6bc2652b357b4088f2520d6fe6a.GIF

:)

Yes that's great news isn't it gavin, if you're looking for further cold, look away from the Ecm..it's probably best just to go with the flow, even if that flow happens to be southerly!:D

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Maybe I'm looking at the charts wrong but towards the end of next week the GFS is trying to get us back to the east again but not as before.

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23 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Maybe I'm looking at the charts wrong but towards the end of next week the GFS is trying to get us back to the east again but not as before.

There is a good few options still on the table in the GEFS for mid Atlantic and HLB’s still... Spring doesn’t look like going out like a lamb! No significant warm up modeled yet.

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Posted (edited)

My take on the next 6-15 days below, after a good look at the 500 mb anomaly charts

 

Sunday  4 march 2018 and the end of the deep cold under way

Ec-gfs and not total agreement between them but both show troughing more in charge than blocking, no block to the e/n but still such over greenland into northern n America; ec shows more marked troughing w of uk=flow s of west into uk with gfs showing a more w’ly based trough and stronger than ec idea, air still on coldish side for both

Noaa also shows –ve heights centred wsw of uk with contour trough just w also along with +ve heights similar area re ne n America/Greenland but no actual contour ridging. Contour heights into uk some 10-15 dm higher than last week, so less cold especially further south one is in uk

Some suggestion of n-s split re cold/less cold, cold chiefly n’ern half Scotland I would say.

General weather more unsettled than settled around normal T for areas away from n’ern half Scotland?

For my area this is Mn 2-3 to Mx 7-9 early march

The 8-14 also shows a general westerly 500 mb flow with no sign of any blocking N/S/E/W  with still some indication of -ve heights over the SW of the UK

charts below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by johnholmes
deleting file not uploading
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Interesting reading the Scottish thread, still pretty snowy for many up there, here just a slushy mess, cold and raining and foggy!

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22 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Interesting reading the Scottish thread, still pretty snowy for many up there

I suspect not for much longer, latest models show less cold / relatively milder air spreading up across all parts of the uk..

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Whilst things do look milder a crisp cold couple of mornings can’t be discounted. Here’s Thursday early

044594C0-2236-4E96-826D-8CA8D4393E30.jpeg

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Not liking the idea of the low tracking through the Azores stalling out across the UK as the HLB attempts to make a return; that's a recipe for a lot of rain with that nagging chance of a sudden turn to snow should the HLB become better-defined to our N/NE rather than being vague and spread out across a wide area as the models currently show (seems unrealistic?).

Still running with the assumption that this less cold weather is an 'interlude' before the next round of lagged SSW impacts, but at this point in time it's looking quite a bit larger than I had ever imagined it would be. Whether that will actually be the case remains to be seen.

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There's nothing of interest for coldies as such on the Gfs 6z op apart from some frosty nights here and there and a bit of wet snow, March 18th looks interesting but there is some mild weather too and overall it looks unsettled for all..the week ahead is a getting back to normal kind of week I would say!:)

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 7 this morning we have ECM with a deep low to the south-west whilst UKMO has a deep low much further north

ecm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4cc43801ed98cff523acc53e36e4fd00.pngukm2.2018031100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ce0071e6d2dd3c31e65952b06bd55435.png

Either way no desperately cold air in sight this morning

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.09e2abca2de2f73e20455b6468240fdd.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.d9a9b6bc2652b357b4088f2520d6fe6a.GIF

:)

Whilst I really wouldn't mind a warm up now, this isn't the way I'd like to see it. Such a synoptic pattern would see so much rainfall because the low runs a risk of getting stuck and has carried moisture all the way from the Azores too. Some damaging gusts as well.

I would much prefer a March 2012 type warm up or even just an anticyclonic outlook as the increasing strength of the sun makes the outdoors more pleasant. The above charts would be anything but with lots of rain during the day and anomalous warmth restricted more towards night time minima. Not ideal at all but it has backing from many ensemble members...

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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I think the EC clusters might be sniffing out a height rise to our NE around D12

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030400_300.

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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think the EC clusters might be sniffing out a height rise to our NE around D12

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030400_300.

Yes I posted that the Met were looking at that as a distinct possibility. Courtesy of Clare Nasir.

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, it's generally unsettled throughout and for most of the run it's pretty cold across most of scotland, at least the northern half but rather less cold / a little milder the further south you are but then temps rise a little nationwide beyond mid month..so, in the meantime, still potential for some sleet or snow, especially further north (mainly scotland) and on higher ground but we are all at risk of overnight frosts and icy patches at times..nothing severe like we've just had but nothing particularly springlike either..just my opinion of the 6z mean!:)

Edited by Frosty.

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There's a new trade surge and less MJO activity underway in the Pacific so for those wanting spring warmth to begin this may enhance the Azores High down and the line, equally it could produce zonality.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

What did we learn from the cold spell? Well the GFS isn't totally useless, cold blocks can be pushed away quickly and never trust one run on a model which shows you what you want to see.:nonono:oh and don't knock those who tell you it's going to get milder:wallbash: when they are telling you the facts. As for March, it is looking damp and cool from this morning's  model output, but I still see another surprise in store later this month, for those who like cold and snow.:good:

Particularly agree with the highlighted part above.

I get that people want to talk about the weather that interests them most, but it shouldn't be to the exclusion of other solutions that are being modelled.

Some of the posts attempting some objectivity were shot down so quickly and often rudely, that the thread became a place that was a bit unpleasant to be part of at times.

Hopefully, the site and its members have learnt something from the last couple of weeks.

On topic, models are a bit in no mans land really, with no firm signal emerging. Looks like the SSW has left everything a bit slack as we await a firm pattern to emerge.

For me that means, no more snow, but probably no golf in the next couple weeks :angry:

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Particularly agree with the highlighted part above.

I get that people want to talk about the weather that interests them most, but it shouldn't be to the exclusion of other solutions that are being modelled.

Some of the posts attempting some objectivity were shot down so quickly and often rudely, that the thread became a place that was a bit unpleasant to be part of at times.

Hopefully, the site and its members have learnt something from the last couple of weeks.

On topic, models are a bit in no mans land really, with no firm signal emerging. Looks like the SSW has left everything a bit slack as we await a firm pattern to emerge.

For me that means, no more snow, but probably no golf in the next couple weeks :angry:

 

 

Yes i was one of them who was shot down, it wasn't the model output discussion thread, more the, if it isn't going to stay cold then we don't want to hear it thread. It's looking pretty boring weatherwise, for the first part of March.

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Posted (edited)

ICON 12z showing some milder air in the south next Saturday but plenty of rain with it

icon-0-144.thumb.png.3548569a38a79d94fe4f5857807a9950.pngicon-2-141.thumb.png.c0bb5d2ba50f6945bef2c1e5e9321842.pngicon-9-144.thumb.png.64ed08643d8dfdc8214dd2aa395be37d.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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      Please continue with the model discussion here, as we perhaps head towards the hottest spell of what has already been a rare, very dry, very warm summer?
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      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
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      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
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      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
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