Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[mb018538]

ECM also rebuilds high pressure again this morning. We can afford a dry summer this year after all the rain we've had!



GFS showing Friday as the warmest day of the week - a 26c around the London area, so 80f isn't out of the question yet..ECM by the same token doesn't have 850s nearly as high on the same day.

[Summer Sun]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Great to see high pressure making a fairly quick return on the 18z

Following on from this we have the same happening on the 00z with ECM now joining in

Hope this is a new trend which gathers pace over the coming days

[Summer Sun]

Super duper 00z in the short to mid range once more

Edited April 13, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

There's some really gorgeous weather on the way next week in complete contrast to this week's dismal cold north sea cloud / mist...the improvement arrives tomorrow with the easterly cut off and winds changing to a southerly direction with temperatures into the mid teens celsius with sunny spells and a few heavy showers but really all eyes are on next week as these charts from the Gem / Ecm 00z show as high pressure becomes centred to the east and temperatures soar into the low / mid 20's celsius..the Ecm 00z ends on a positive note too following a cooler less settled blip there is a reboot as the azores high starts building in and warmer temps would soon return!? 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is a cracking run again this morning

[Summer Sun]

00z ECM mean offers plenty of hope that any less settled weather might well be a very short blip

[Summer Sun]

Great to see the 06z bringing the warmer air very quickly after a minor blip

[Milhouse]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

ECM also rebuilds high pressure again this morning. We can afford a dry summer this year after all the rain we've had!



GFS showing Friday as the warmest day of the week - a 26c around the London area, so 80f isn't out of the question yet..ECM by the same token doesn't have 850s nearly as high on the same day.

And the great thing about the upcoming spell is the nationwide warmth predicted. Even the onshore breezes around North Sea coasts cant be as cold ad this week. 

[Summer Sun]

As you were on the 06z in the short to mid range

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Plenty of people salivating at the prospect of some warm, sunny weather which is understandable after a long winter and one of the slowest starts to spring I can remember. From some of the talk, it seems however we will miss spring and go straight to summer.

Not much sign of spring, it has to be said, in my part of the world this week.

Never mind, let's see where we may be on St George's Day, Monday April 23rd and let's kick off with what seems to be everybody's favourite model at the moment for some reason, the ECM, the 00Z at T+240:

Not hard to see why this should be so popular. ECM has been the most bullish about a short-lived warm spell for some day and is now bringing back renewed HP from the SW so fine and dry weather for most though perhaps not quite as warm as it's due to be next midweek with the air coming off the Atlantic but nonetheless very pleasant. The far NW still at risk from Atlantic systems and some drizzle perhaps and note the LP over North Africa helping to prop up the new HP push.

GEM 00Z at T+240:

A rather different evolution. By this time next midweek's HP has declined to the SE but while there's a weak LP over Biscay winds are light over the British Isles in a col. There's a weak ridge pushing north and a sense that heights could well be developing to the north of the British Isles with the Atlantic moribund but we'll see.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

Closer to ECM than GEM but with a different evolution again. Heights to the east eventually break down as a deep LP comes in to northern Scandinavia. This enables a height rise over the British Isles but the trough is still over Iberia so the HP is inflated to the north. Further into FI, Atlantic LP comes back into control and the run ends quite unsettled and much cooler with a NW'ly flow.

GFS 06Z OP at T+234:

More like the morning's ECM with a renewed push of HP from the Azores. Further into FI and the pattern of heights to the north and the trough to the south re-asserts so a messy evolution with occasional E'ly interludes but always more unsettled to the south.

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

Something very different. Heights to the NW, a large tough over Scandinavia and a slack N'ly driving out the warmer air and returning colder conditions for all. Further into FI and a NE'ly interlude before a new LP develops near Iceland and disrupts SE over the British Isles.

The 06Z GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

In my view, the Control solution has far more support than the OP and indeed fans of warmth should look at P19 if they want to choke on their lunch. Others raise heights to the NE and offer a NE'ly flow while the OP's desire to remove heights to the south of the British Isles isn't widely supported in the ENS at this time. The path beyond is much less certain but northern blocking is well represented as well as the tough sitting over the British Isles with warm, settled conditions in the minority.

To conclude, a fine and warm snap lasting 2-3 days next week looks certain but the breakdown of the HP to the east and what follows is far from clear. Fans of warmth will draw heart from ECM and the GFS 06Z OP while GEM and GFS 00Z both pointed to an alternative which kept LP to the south and seemed to suggest new heights to the north. The GFS 06Z Control has thrown a spanner in the works with an evolution which is not without support in the ENS and raises heights to the NW.

An intriguing evolution beyond the warmth of next week and as we often see at this time of year, with a generally moribund Atlantic, the position and orientation of HP becomes of more significance.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO 12z shows an improving picture for those in the west after the chance of rain/showers at the start of next week

[Summer Sun]

Looks like a fairly rapid return for the high on GFS 12z

Edited April 13, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Lovely stuff from GFS 12z as our dear old friend the Azores high returns

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Lovely stuff from GFS 12z as our dear old friend the Azores high returns

Two months too early. Go home Azores your not due to start work for another two months.

[cheese]

6 hours ago, Milhouse said:

And the great thing about the upcoming spell is the nationwide warmth predicted. Even the onshore breezes around North Sea coasts cant be as cold ad this week. 

The immediate coast still looks much cooler though. Looks like 22-23C here but 12-13C in Bridlington. A fairly common occurrence though.

Edited April 13, 2018 by cheese

[Interitus]

3 hours ago, stodge said:

 

Plenty of people salivating at the prospect of some warm, sunny weather which is understandable after a long winter and one of the slowest starts to spring I can remember. From some of the talk, it seems however we will miss spring and go straight to summer.

Not much sign of spring, it has to be said, in my part of the world this week.

 

Despite the coldest March 1st in the 247 years of the daily CET, and the 2nd coldest March 2nd and March 18th, the spring to April 11th at 5.69°C is only 0.3 degrees below the long term average of 5.99°C.

This seems cold in the context of warming springs in recent years, however it is a full 2.65 degrees warmer than the same period just 5 years ago in 2013.

2006 and 1996 were cooler also whilst from the 1980s, of the four years 1984-7, 1985 was marginally warmer and the other three were colder than this year.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

27 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Two months too early. Go home Azores your not due to start work for another two months.

for 38.5 degrees yes, but many peoples ideal summer weather coming up, early to mid 20's, least it's timed for April and not Dec to early Mar

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for 38.5 degrees yes, but many peoples ideal summer weather coming up, early to mid 20's, least it's timed for April and not Dec to early Mar

Agreed, even a coldie like me can't stand this cold cloudy north sea muck any longer, good news is the weekend looks much milder and then a real taste of summer developing next week, especially from midweek..models look great for next week ???..as far as I'm concerned, the azores high is welcome from now until october!

[Summer Sun]

Ohh t168 from ECM is a fantastic UPGRADE

I always knew Friday 13th could bring some luck

[Summer Sun]

t192 is also excellent great to see a breakdown getting shunted away

Hope this is a new trend great news if it is

[Summer Sun]

What an amazing 12z ECM is about time we had a good spell of warm, sunny & dry weather long overdue

 

[Summer Sun]

No sign of an imminent breakdown from UKMO extended either

[Frosty.]

I'm not sure if anyone has mentioned the Gem 12z but it really is magnificent for much of next week in marked contrast to this week's cold and gloomy dross!

As for this weekend, warming up with sunny spells, increasing southerly breeze and a few heavy showers but it's really all about next week..in summary, it's becoming summery??

[Summer Sun]

On 06/04/2018 at 17:48, Summer Sun said:

Nice turn around from GFS this afternoon

Hope this continues  

One week on

GFS was close for tomorrow

Didn't do so well for Sunday

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for 38.5 degrees yes, but many peoples ideal summer weather coming up, early to mid 20's, least it's timed for April and not Dec to early Mar

Its good the Azores has arrived here earlier and people want it to set up a prolonged summer pattern and strengthen for the rest of Spring but if that's going to be the case then things will only start to deteriorate by time we get to mid-June. Good patterns don't normally last long. Hence why I said it should go home and come back in two months as it would be better timed. If people want a good summer then ideally the Azores should arrive to set up its pattern in June.