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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
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For more focused short-range model discussion:
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Don't post on here much.

However I found this fascinating since I feel that it  puts into pictures the words of people like Tamara and co, when they talk about the various forces and torques changing in the Pacific and how they  then traverse the globe in response.

I found it truly fascinating, and almost mesmerizing.

I do not know whether it would be worthwhile putting onto the thread that Bringback set up to explain the technical details.

I know it is on WUWT, but it sure does  display exactly how the atmosphere is responding to the forces over the Pacific.

Link of atmospheric movement

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

The Beast from the South East looks highly likely now. Exceptional warmth for April - wonder if the 29.4C record is under threat? I know it’s too early to tell, but who knows?

I would say no because normally we need Iberia to be baking hot before we go baking hot too - and we're also a bit early in the month.

But maybe not that far off. I do love breaking records :)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Some amazing output again today, the Ecm 12z operational becomes very summery next week, no exaggeration..these are summer charts in mid april!..not often you see 564 dam thicknesses reaching the uk so early!..bring it on:)??????  ???

168_mslp500.png

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169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

That is just heavenly. The warmth will feel so good. 

Does not appear to be weakening and pretty much all the charts are in agreement so a very good chance of verifying. 

There have been charts like that in April, as previously mentioned by someone, 2007 comes to mind (eeek) and I do seem to remember a very warm day or two in April 2015. Around 24-25c I recall. But generally, to see charts like that in April is fairly rare and should be savoured. 

I do get the horrible feeling that it will be short lived, almost always is in the UK. Would love 2-3weeks of it but I’m not a expert at reading the charts so don’t know how to gauge the potential longevity. 

Edited by matty007
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

No change this morning - still looking warm or very warm into the middle of next week - GFS showing max temps of 25c at present, with the very warm days shown as Tuesday-Friday.

138-582UK.GIF?12-0162-582UK.GIF?12-0186-582UK.GIF?12-0210-582UK.GIF?12-0

Lovely :D

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

I would say no because normally we need Iberia to be baking hot before we go baking hot too - and we're also a bit early in the month.

But maybe not that far off. I do love breaking records :)

 

The current April record was set on the 16th in 1949, much earlier in the month than one might expect.

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Amazing run from 00z ECM once the high to our east loses its grip a euro high then forms which extends up to around northern England initially

ECMOPEU00_120_2.thumb.png.5ab28d2a05803dd2757548a9484d7739.pngECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.9864b51068ecb6a2ed6d70f18e80c955.pngECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.dbd9defe5b8b93e5435431060acaad74.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.ad3114b337fe3e4142f94436ac080f68.pngECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.236a6e5a615566408c1557a185c9e979.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.d337aa8f9d0b62ec1d10d0bd248c0d81.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The 00z 7-day forecast mean is superb once again with temps significantly above average for quite a few parts of the country

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.3a665dcc08aba49a7f3500a5eaf01c77.png

:good:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
5 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

GFS0z flips from mid-simmer to mid-winter in a space of 5 days!!

 

 

summer.png

winter.png

Looking at the main 3 further out at D10 it is 2 to 1 in favour of high pressure remaining at least over part of the country

GEM and ECM

ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.8c7edc11b3b53867efc769449cbc71af.pngGEMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.de25ec0472b37d1e1ceff114ef3cb907.png

GFS

GFSOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.bfef7f272d671cc38a3eeae7e4930db2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended shows the high moving further west which means virtually all of the UK and ROI become dry

ukm2.2018041900_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.eb0e6a77a1483e2eaadd78df7c5a098b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z shows winter returning for a last hurrah, wonder if steve is lurking!:shok::cold::D❄❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄⛄

00_276_preciptype.png

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b4a1da991a5c03539e371bb60a54aa40.jpg

winteriscoming.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Heaven forbid!

The 6-10 day outlook seems pretty solidly set with a marked upper ridge east of the UK (Europe into Scandinavia) and a deepish trough west of this giving a southerly 500 mb flow into the UK. The NOAA 8-14 drops all this and shows a weakish Atlantic flow into a sllght trough just west of the UK. All 3 have shown this over the past couple of days or so which gives good confidence in it occurring.

As shown on the synoptic models then the awful easterly looks like going by the weekend and the southerly upper flow takin over into next week Obviously the 00z GFS idea shown above by Fristy is always a possibility in April but hopefully IF it does occur no more than a 24-36 hour event.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Morning All. Well it's nice to see a warm up for next week in stark contrast to this week as it looks and feels like mid Winter. A long way off but it looks like the ecm and gfs show the peak of the temperatures  between Wednesday and Friday,  but along with that a possible breakdown as early as late Thursday into Friday wit potential thunderstorms from the southwest. Whatever it will be a welcome change for not just humans but for the animal life and the flora and fauna and even though it looks to be a short warm snap ,I will enjoy with what seems to be the longest winter I've ever lived through :yahoo:

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h850t850eu-18.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I'm seeing lots of similarities to the mid-April 2003 spell in the models at the moment. That April overall of course was a good deal better than this one so far but we transitioned from a very non-descript no man's land as we are currently stuck in now, to a very summery spell of weather with a notably warm Good Friday (18th). 

archives-2003-4-11-12-0.png archives-2003-4-13-12-0.png archives-2003-4-15-12-0.png archives-2003-4-17-12-0.png

Worth noting however, that an abrupt switch brought much chillier air from north of east not long after, followed by a much more unsettled end to the month and a return to westerlies into May, a common feature these days. Instead, FI showing an equally dramatic turnaround of fortunes via a trough moving in from the southwest followed by a back door northerly into the final week of April, this seeming to be a recurring theme in more recent years. 

All in all, lots of interest showing from the weekend onwards, and thank heavens, because this last week has been a weather enthusiast's nightmare!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Nice to see the 1025 line further west on the 06z

06z

gfs-0-132.thumb.png.39f3d4662c198c879416bcda27c36e47.pnggfs-0-150.thumb.png.b5198a45a1c28a099d7ca2cf6a7ed41b.png

00z

gfs-0-138.thumb.png.ca2112deaa4268cc5841c65e04a5a551.pnggfs-0-156.thumb.png.e5e89ad4e3128ffcaa545007ce4b0606.png

:)

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
48 minutes ago, MP-R said:

this last week has been a weather enthusiast's nightmare!

Absolutely agree, the current cold cloudy north sea filth is abysmal and I will be glad to see the back of it..happy to say the models look increasingly spring-like this weekend and then more summer-like next week, what a transformation is in store..can't wait!:)?

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

Continued excitement at the prospect of two or three days of very warm weather next week and certainly 21-22c next Thursday will be much higher than the 12c currently on offer.

Let's see where the end of next week finds us so today the medium term takes us to Sunday April 22nd.

Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?12-12

The orientation of heights changes from the east to the SW of the British Isles but it remains fine for many albeit probably a shade cooler with air sourced off the Atlantic. It's likely northern and western areas will turn more unsettled as the LP approaches.

GEM 00Z at T+240:

gem-0-240.png?00

The principal difference between GEM and ECM is ECM removes the trough to the south of the British Isles while GEM keeps it. The presence of the trough means heights are pushed further north so there is a light residual E'ly across southern areas while northern and north western parts keep fine conditions with little or no Atlantic influence.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

GFS breaks down the warm spell slightly more slowly but slightly more completely with LP spreading up from the SW to cover the British Isles bringing in rain or showers for many by this time. No sign of an Azores ridge at this time but a strong ridge holds around Greenland and this dominates the weather into FI as the trough drops into Scandinavia and across the British Isles bringing much colder and more unsettled conditions for all.

GFS 06Z OP at T+234:

gfs-0-234.png?6

A cooler NE'ly flow as HP has retrogressed toward Greenland but still fine for most. Further into FI heights remain to the North or North West and in time the wind becomes more N'ly introducing much cooler air.

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

HP to the NW and keeping things settled for most. Heights remain close to or to the NW of the British isles further into FI but with signs of a more N'ly incursion later.

The 06Z GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

Broadly anticyclonic though the position and orientation of the HP far from resolved though the majority keeping the centre to the north of the British Isles. Further into FI a signal for the heights to move more to the NW and the trough to drop into Scandinavia so much cooler conditions with a N'ly component to the sourced air flow.

In conclusion, if you want spring/summer to continue, ECM is the form horse as it looks to rebuild heights from the south. GEM goes a similar route but keeps residual LP to the south so tempering things a bit but if you want something else, head for GFS. The 00Z OP is a real slap in the face for warm fans and while the 06Z keeps things settled for longer, the signal for a change to a colder more unsettled outlook with heights retreating NW and the trough dropping into Scandinavia is clear but far from certain at this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, given the thread's title and what we've had to endure since the Beast. And, given my growing-up with Benny Hill...Cobras!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The good news is the current cold cloudy / misty easterly filth off the north sea will very soon be cut off and the weekend will become a lot milder from the south with sunny spells and scattered heavy showers and then through next week the Gfs 6z shows summer warmth arriving with temperatures soaring well into the low 20's celsius quite widely!:)?

06_153_uk2mtmp.png

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06_177_uk2mtmp.png

06_177_mslp500.png

06_201_uk2mtmp.png

06_201_mslp500.png

06_225_uk2mtmp.png

 

Edited by Frosty.
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