Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Scorcher]

Just looking at the GFS 12Z run...all I can say is WOW. One of the best runs I've ever seen in April for warmth. This run extends the warm spell right out into low res- this block is going to take some moving by the looks of things.

This chart for next Friday really stands out to me- a long way off but a realistic evolution. This to me is close to the perfect summer chart- to get it in April is amazing:

Get the shorts ready!

[Summer Sun]

Great to see GFS 12z upgrading the warmth

12z

06z

Hope these upgrades continue

[snowray]

Yes warm spell extended and some very mild air coming up from the south east on the 12z, I can see the high 20's could be on the cards if this verifies, lovely stuff.

Edited April 11, 2018 by snowray

[Frosty.]

Those of us in the east and north enduring a cold dull easterly need not worry, warmer times are coming!..the Gfs 12z shows an improvement spreading north during the next few days with temps into the mid teens celsius along with brighter skies and scattered heavy showers BUT the big news is next week which on this run shows an early taste of summer with high pressure and exceptional warmth becoming widespread...charts are amazing, they speak for themselves..hope it's right, if it is right we will be looking at something very special and not just a brief warm-up as someone said this morning!..it's looking really encouraging to me.????fingers crossed!?

[Dancerwithwings]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Great to see GFS 12z upgrading the warmth

12z

06z

Hope these upgrades continue

Oh yes

Edited April 11, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[Leon1]

 

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 month before: It was snowing loads! It's crazy how quick it can all change!

[Summerstorm]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Those of us in the east and north enduring a cold dull easterly need not worry, warmer times are coming!..the Gfs 12z shows an improvement spreading north during the next few days with temps into the mid teens celsius along with brighter skies and scattered heavy showers BUT the big news is next week which on this run shows an early taste of summer with high pressure and exceptional warmth becoming widespread...charts are amazing, they speak for themselves..hope it's right, if it is right we will be looking at something very special and not just a brief warm-up as someone said this morning!..it's looking really encouraging to me.????fingers crossed!?

 

 

 

 

Yep looking quite nice Karl liking the look of the storm potential on this run as well which could be fun  

The GFS could be doing it's usual trick of overestimating the cape, but even so there still might be some potential for some fun and games come the end of next week if you love a good thunderstorm. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Great to see GFS 12z upgrading the warmth

12z

06z

Hope these upgrades continue

Yes, about time too SS, getting tiring now this winter, different of course if it was snowing, but this is best

[Mike Poole]

Now that this warm spell seems to be by some margin the form horse, do we have any idea from the 12s as to the longevity?
Main models at T144 first:



Some consistency here.  Moving to T240:

GEM keen on a quicker retrogression than GFS, we've seen this evolution on a couple of GFS runs earlier if memory is correct, but not many. Be interesting to see the ECM T240 today.  Any road, after recent weather, end of next week will feel amazing for many!

Edit GEFS out, wholly backing the warm up at T144:

Supportive for high pressure to remain close by at T240:

 

Edited April 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Derecho]

Sorry I haven't been able to contribute as I have been busy in Vienna but wow! what a set of charts to greet my return back to the UK on Sunday.

The trigger for this cold is the release of a deep cold pool of air over N America into the Atlantic which encourages a deep Atlantic low and helps whip up some warm southerlies.

Then we probably get the best pattern for April with warm southerlies and a high to our east. Temperatures probably getting into the early mid 20s for quite a few.

It could last quite a while too! but when it does end, fingers crossed its a plume!

I do enjoy this time of year, warm spells can deliver some pretty potent storms and it doesn't usually feel too uncomfortable as minima can still drop at night.

Bring it on.

Edited April 11, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Summer Sun]

Wonderful 12z again

[Frosty.]

Fascinating end to the Gem 12z with what would be a potent cold shot for the time of year about to bring a dramatic end to our warm spell.just for fun!

[Summer Sun]

12z ICON turns into a beautiful run as the low pulls away

[Frosty.]

As means go, this from the GEFS 12z has to be right up there by mid april standards, next week looks exceptionally good unless you hate high pressure, warmth and sunshine..surely there can't be too many of you can there??

[Mike Poole]

ECM goes for the jackpot, prolonging the warm spell, here at T240.  No sign of the retrogression as per GEM, route to Greenland looks blocked off for now

Edited April 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z is sensational if anything the warmth is upgrading around the middle part of the week!! if things remain this way I wouldn't rule out somewhere getting to around 27c next week

Great to see it prolonging the high as well

The driest weather will be in the east initially with the west joining in from midweek as the low pulls away

Really can't wait for next week now it is going to be amazing

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM goes for the jackpot, prolonging the warm spell, here at T240.  No sign of the retrogression as per GEM, route to Greenland looks blocked off for now

Yes Mike it's incredible, an upgrade on the Ecm 00z..real taste of summer next week now looks extremely likely..stunning!?

[Djdazzle]

The Beast from the South East looks highly likely now. Exceptional warmth for April - wonder if the 29.4C record is under threat? I know it’s too early to tell, but who knows?

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The Beast from the South East looks highly likely now. Exceptional warmth for April - wonder if the 29.4C record is under threat? I know it’s too early to tell, but who knows?

Would really depend on sunshine amounts in the favoured areas

[mb018538]

I’d say no for something at 30c at this stage, but mid twenties is certainly on the cards as things stand. We’d need 850s near 15c for a 30c max.

[Mike Poole]

The ECM ensemble mean rock solid for the warm up at T144 (as was the GEFS to be honest):

We're really going to feel this as a change after the dreadful weather since Beast 2 (which was wonderful, by the way, it's just the weather since that's been pants!) bring it on!  Should dry up some of this awful standing water!   Still uncertainty towards T240, need to watch future runs to see how long it will last, sometimes these highs stick around longer than initially modelled.

Edited April 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z really is sensational for increasing warmth next week it just get's better and better as the week goes on

Edited April 11, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like we could hit 25c by the end of next week. Possibly touching 80f in favoured spots if the warm air advection is clean enough (we need 850s of 12c+ probably to get there).

Still the outlook seems to be increasingly settled and warm/very warm with high pressure taking control to our east with winds from a generally south easterly direction.

[Cheshire Freeze]

So we at last look like we will see an early taste of summer as we get an Atlantic troughing- Sceuro HP set up. In high summer this would be a pretty unbearable set up heat wise, but in April it should just be warm and pleasant with maximas for most at 24-27C

Longer term?

I think that it is all still to play for...however my hunch (as I alluded to the other day) would be for the jet to head S and for pressure to rise in general to the N of the UK...possibly focused more to the NE.

 

 

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The ECM ensemble mean rock solid for the warm up at T144 (as was the GEFS to be honest):

We're really going to feel this as a change after the dreadful weather since Beast 2 (which was wonderful, by the way, it's just the weather since that's been pants!) bring it on!  Should dry up some of this awful standing water!   Still uncertainty towards T240, need to watch future runs to see how long it will last, sometimes these highs stick around longer than initially modelled.

Indeed Mike it's exceptional..so excited about next week???