Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended at t168 is brilliant for warmth

[damianslaw]

Very much still feeling the effects of the Feb SSW at moment, hence not surprised to see a more blocked outlook holding sway, with no sign of atlantic zonal onslaughts any time soon - more par for the course in April mind, as I've said, now is the quietest period atlantic wise.

Last year we had a shot of early summer warmth 9-11 April temps climbed to 24 degrees, so yes similiar temps quite possible next week in favoured spots in the SE if today's synoptics verify as shown. 

Just a hunch but wouldn't at all be surprised to see the warmer drier theme quickly exchanged for something much colder from the north - as often happens in April and May when we are not under the claws of the atlantic - spring switcharound territory, we will see quite a bit of WAA pumping north through east atlantic as the trough is held in situ. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a very pleasant spell of weather developing during next week across most of the uk..compared to the generally chilly spring so far, next week looks positively summery in mid april..hopefully just a taste of what's to come in the months ahead!??

[bluearmy]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Very much still feeling the effects of the Feb SSW at moment, hence not surprised to see a more blocked outlook holding sway, with no sign of atlantic zonal onslaughts any time soon - more par for the course in April mind, as I've said, now is the quietest period atlantic wise.

Last year we had a shot of early summer warmth 9-11 April temps climbed to 24 degrees, so yes similiar temps quite possible next week in favoured spots in the SE if today's synoptics verify as shown. 

Just a hunch but wouldn't at all be surprised to see the warmer drier theme quickly exchanged for something much colder from the north - as often happens in April and May when we are not under the claws of the atlantic - spring switcharound territory, we will see quite a bit of WAA pumping north through east atlantic as the trough is held in situ. 

The extended has been playing with the scrussian upper trough backing west and the latest 46 continues this theme. Decent to the back end of April but then the pattern gets far enough west to bring us under the upper trough and the whole of may is below av temps. 

Of course, three weeks ago, the whole of April looked to be below average so not necessary to point out the failings of this longer range modelling. Exeter’s 30 dayer will no doubt continue to push the uncertainty. 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z gives the uk an early taste of summer next week with temperatures soaring into the low 20's celsius..very nice?

[Frosty.]

Ditto the Ecm 00z, becoming settled and very warm next week with temperatures widely into the low 20's celsius and for favoured spots, edging closer to the mid 20's c and then later becoming more humid with a risk of thundery showers, mainly across the sw / w..absolutely gorgeous charts I think most will agree, more like summer than spring!.?

Edited April 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

I'd say on the current modelling - if it verified - somewhere will get close to 25c.



Back in 2003 this set up gave 27.4c. I know you can't compare the two - and in 2003 winter had been very dry and sunny, and pretty warm. You'd have to feel in a southerly flow with 850s a bit higher than back then it won't be too far off in any sunshine.

[johnholmes]

25C wow, here it would be good to reach double figures!

[Summer Sun]

I think somewhere in or around the London area has a very good chance of getting close to the mid-20s at some point next week if conditions are right

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM 00z is another corker of a run the temps begin to pick up during Saturday then next week is absolutely brilliant with high teens widely by mid-week and locally into the 20s

[Northernlights]

48 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

25C wow, here it would be good to reach double figures!

Yes here as well  we have just  had 12 hours rain overnight,its currently 5.5c, overcast, I have  had to cancel a lime spreader as  the fields are too wet to travel on this morning and we are running about two weeks late with spring work. Lots of east coast farmers will be in same boat.

[DR(S)NO]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM 00z is another corker of a run the temps begin to pick up during Saturday then next week is absolutely brilliant with high teens widely by mid-week and locally into the 20s

Just checking SS.... is this warmth accompanied by sunshine.... my phone weather has rain and 21c for next Thursday!

[Summer Sun]

9 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Just checking SS.... is this warmth accompanied by sunshine.... my phone weather has rain and 21c for next Thursday!

Best of the sunshine looks to be further east in the west some rain is possible as you'll be closer to the low

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Just checking SS.... is this warmth accompanied by sunshine.... my phone weather has rain and 21c for next Thursday!

Just looked at the Gem 00z, the warmest and sunniest weather next week would be further east with temps as high as 24 / 25c during the second half of next week whereas further west, atlantic low pressure is closer than the Gfs / Ecm shows and therefore it would be windier, cooler and cloudier with rain at times across the west..my feeling is we will have a middle ground where all the uk becomes warm / very warm with the best of the sunny weather and highest temps away from the far west where there could be some thundery showers later next week.

[johnholmes]

22 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Yes here as well  we have just  had 12 hours rain overnight,its currently 5.5c, overcast, I have  had to cancel a lime spreader as  the fields are too wet to travel on this morning and we are running about two weeks late with spring work. Lots of east coast farmers will be in same boat.

You make my moan seem so insignificant, I really feel for you farmers with this spring, it is much the same round here, fields waterlogged after the wettest March in a long time, and over an inch of rain again already this month, raining slightly again as I type this.

I hope things soon improve for you all.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended is brilliant again for the majority but out west towards ROI, NI and perhaps western Scotland some rain is possible still as you're closer to the low

 

[Frosty.]

Miserable cold cloudy day for many so far today but fast forward to next week it looks a lot better on the Gfs 6z doesn't it??

 

Edited April 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

I live in hope frosty, 6.2 C and overcast here, at least today it is not foggy but we have had slight rain.

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I live in hope frosty, 6.2 C and overcast here, at least today it is not foggy but we have had slight rain.

Chin up John, I think by this weekend it will be generally milder and brighter and then next week will be turning much warmer and settled away from the far west, solid cross model support now.?

Edited April 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Brillant charts for next week they are long overdue and most welcome

Can't wait

[MrNooo]

3 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Yes here as well  we have just  had 12 hours rain overnight,its currently 5.5c, overcast, I have  had to cancel a lime spreader as  the fields are too wet to travel on this morning and we are running about two weeks late with spring work. Lots of east coast farmers will be in same boat.

Same down here, no land work for over 2 weeks, ground is wetter than mid winter currently, a few on brash have done a small amount of drilling, would hazard 90% still to do, 2nd fert app not done yet (too wet) and WW and OSR need spraying (too wet). Have 150 acres of SB to drill and not turned a wheel in two weeks. Lets hope next week delivers the goods, saw my 1st swallows last week, heaven only knows how they must be feeling!!

Edited April 11, 2018 by MrNooo
spelling

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Lots of people getting excited about next week's brief warm up which is understandable after the long winter we've experienced. However, the weather doesn't care what we want or don't want and goes on its merry way.

Today I'll take the medium term analysis out to Saturday April 21st and start as always with ECM 00Z OP for T+240:

The evolution is different to yesterday's 00Z and more closely resembles the GFS 00Z from yesterday. The HP is basically an extension of HP over western Russia which shifts west as the Atlantic LP stalls but the warm snap isn't going to last as the HP quickly declines South or South East and a new trough develops to the SW of the British Isles developing into LP and frontal rain coming NE. The SE is likely to see only light rain but Ireland would get more noticeable rain.

GEM 00Z at T+240:

Something different from GEM as pressure rises NE from the Azores and the trough shifts north so a generally fine and dry prospect but with the wind shifting from the SE to a west or NW'ly temperatures would ease back from their midweek highs. The far NW would see rain or drizzle from Atlantic systems.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

Different again. The Scandinavian HP which was at one point a large and intense HP is declining but in situ so the SE'ly flow across the British Isles remains but the LP is now well into south western areas bringing rain and heavy showers to an increasing area while the north and east hangs on to something drier. Further into FI and the evolution remains messy but with heights to the west and later the north west it's a drier but cooler prospect.

GFS 06Z OP at T+234:

Well now, is that a retrogressing HP I see ? It's an interesting new development which I've not seen to now. The ridge keeps northern and eastern areas largely fine and warm but the LP is approaching the SW hinting at something less settled in terms of showers. Further into FI heights remain dominant to the north with the air flow over the British Isles ranging from a cool NE'ly to a warmer E'ly as we approach the end of the month.

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

Heights rising to the NW and more of an ENE'ly flow as pressure drops over Scandinavia. The LP is still well to the SW over NW Spain so the weather remains fair for most away from the east coast. Further into FI and signs of a return of Atlantic influence as LP develops to the west of Iceland and promotes a broad SW'ly flow over the British Isles.

The 06Z GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

Plenty of warmth and/or northern blocking. The orientation and position of the HP varies considerably across the suite and has a huge impact on the air flow reaching the British Isles (don't look at P6 if you're a warmie). I'd say more uncertainty than the past couple of days and the eventual "breakdown" of the midweek warm snap still hard to call with retrogression a clear option based on the OP.

Further into FI and the clusters are heading down two distinct routes - one favours a return of Atlantic influence while the other keeps northern blocking but more toward Greenland with a trough either over Scandinavia or closet to the British isles with a risk of a cold N'ly or NE'ly outbreak toward the end of the month.

In summary, next week's 2-3 day warm snap will be welcome by many but it doesn't look as though it will hold until the weekend. As the HP declines, LP encroaches from the SW bringing an increased risk of rain or showers from the SW. From there, the Atlantic might return or blocking could continue with more of an emphasis on Greenland or the NW in general which opens the door to something colder (potentially) but we are a long way from resolution on that as you'd expect.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM mean at D10 looks decent still

[Summer Sun]

Fantastic t144 from UKMO especially the further east you are - those in the far west will see some rain and stronger winds at first next week

Edited April 11, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Best dig the shorts out and get them washed summer is on the way!

Edited April 11, 2018 by Summer Sun