Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Summer Sun]

Hello spring it is nice to see you again

Edited April 10, 2018 by Summer Sun

[stodge]

Morning all

Plenty of signs for something drier and much warmer next week though for now the painfully slow transition from winter to spring continues in lowland East London.

This morning the medium term analysis takes us up to Friday April 20th:

Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240:

The trough close to or over the south of the British Isles dominates the rest of this week but next week an LP stalling and deepening to the west forces heights in front of and to the NE over the British Isles which becomes a new centre of HP over Denmark but it's not going to last according to ECM as the above chart shows the HP declining as a new LP developing to the west of the British Isles moves in. The trough is negatively tilted so will it dive SE or will it brush through Ireland ? Fine and warm weather for much of the east and south under a SE'ly flow but signs of more unsettled conditions coming into Ireland.

GEM 00Z OP at T+240:

Something very different from GEM this morning. Heights develop not to the NE but to the SE over Europe which is something we've not seen for a fair while. The flow is still a mild or warm SW'ly with the best weather for southern and eastern parts but the HP though broad is quite shallow while the LP is stationery to the west of Ireland so you'd think more unsettled the further west you are.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

After being on its own yesterday, GFS joins the ECM party with HP to the NE but the evolution couldn't be more different. ECM inflates the HP from the Azores with heights from the SW while GFS brings heights westward from Russia into Scandinavia. The HP starts sinking south from central Scandinavia to Denmark and tilts to orient NW-SE and this allows energy from the Atlantic to start to edge SE into south western parts of the British Isles so while it's a warm and increasingly breezy and fine picture for many the south west will start to see increasingly unsettled conditions with showers.

Further into FI the trough eventually settles SE just to the south of the British Isles with heights to the north but at the very edge of FI the flow shifts more SE and much colder air starts to encroach from Scandinavia.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

The Scandinavian HP starting to decline but the Atlantic energy split both north and south. The British Isles remains warm and fine under a benign SE'ly flow. Further into FI that doesn't last and it turns very much colder as heights build from the NW and a NE'ly flow sets up over the British Isles. A real temperature contrast would be on offer if this verified.

The GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

Strong agreement on heights to the east or NE of the British Isles and a warm SE'ly flow. Some divergence over the exact position and orientation of the HP which is to be expected this far out but the overarching message is the same.

Further into FI and all I'll say is fans of cold may yet have one last shot with plenty of Members showing heights to the NW and a NE or a variant of that setting up.

We'll see.

 

[Summer Sun]

Very nice 7-day forecast mean into the 20's next week for some areas without a doubt if the models are correct

 

 

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Very nice 7-day forecast mean into the 20's next week for some areas without a doubt if the models are correct

 

 

Surely there cannot be another cold spell now, can we finally say winter is over?

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Surely there cannot be another cold spell now, can we finally say winter is over?

Always the chance still of some cooler conditions until mid-May especially if we picked an easterly though cold such as that of Beast 1 and 2 is pretty much over and done with now bar something really exceptional

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Very nice 7-day forecast mean into the 20's next week for some areas without a doubt if the models are correct

 

 

Here's hoping Summer, been a long Winter. Let's hope this is the pattern for the next four months.

[Frosty.]

Judging by the latest models i'm pretty confident we are heading towards our first nationwide very spring-like / early summery spell next week with low pressure out in the atlantic acting to scoop up tropical maritime air from the azores and high pressure then becoming the dominant feature to the east enabling increasingly warm continental air to waft north across the uk..so temperatures next week look like rising above / well above average inland with widely high 60's / low 70's F and for some favoured parts of the s / se..approaching mid 20's celsius...let's hope the strong potential turns into reality!???

[Frosty.]

Just to add, the GEFS 6z mean looks increasingly awesome next week with temps widely into the low 70's F with high pressure to the east and a warm / very warm Sly / SEly airflow from the near continent..fingers crossed it all works out for us!?

[Summer Sun]

00z NASA

Spring we have lift off

[Summer Sun]

Great to see UKMO joining the party

[Faronstream]

I have to agree with the rest in here the charts are ******* fantastic and there is no real cold air getting even close to the most northern parts of europe

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is shaping again up to bring some very welcome warmth next week those in the west will see some rain and stronger winds at times but the further east you are the better it will be

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z turns summery next week with temps into the low 20's celsius..gorgeous charts for mid April..perhaps even a thunderstorm risk later as humidity increases..BBQ weather!?

Edited April 10, 2018 by Frosty.

[Milhouse]

From one extreme to another it seems like. From unseasonably cold conditions through March to the extremely wet spell recently then on to the first warm and dry spell of the year. It will certainly come as a welcome change. Low pressure doesn't look like moving very far during next week at all but the crucial bit is that its centred a couple of thousand of miles to the west of the UK instead of parked directly lover us like recent weeks. The upshot of that is a continuous feed of increasingly warm southerlies with less of an easterly component than was previously indicated. Good news for most, if not all to benefit from the fine conditions!

[Daniel*]

55 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

I have to agree with the rest in here the charts are ******* fantastic and there is no real cold air getting even close to the most northern parts of europe

Well a cooler end to April looks likely to me, the warmth of next week unlikely to make it through weekend fairly short lived Thursday in particular looks very warm mid 20s possible in London and low 20s widely maybe 20C in Scotland enjoy your summer.

A taste of summer, I can’t see it lasting seems westerly airstream is going to pounce through turning wetter and cooler.

Edited April 10, 2018 by Daniel*

[ANYWEATHER]

55 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

I have to agree with the rest in here the charts are ******* fantastic and there is no real cold air getting even close to the most northern parts of europe

But given the very inaccurate and poor model output as of late ,I would not put any money on it

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, Faronstream said:

I have to agree with the rest in here the charts are ******* fantastic and there is no real cold air getting even close to the most northern parts of europe

At least you can see the -20c has returned outside of western Greenland besides the point not too sure on this but it's seems quite warm (for most of Greenland) is this due to the SSW?

On our British Soil and most of western europe we seem to have our first go at summer  for you guys that like the warmth enjoy  

[A.J]

44 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 12z turns summery next week with temps into the low 20's celsius..gorgeous charts for mid April..perhaps even a thunderstorm risk later as humidity increases..BBQ weather!?

 

you're not wrong there Karl, according to that chart my temp in my little chunk of the M4  corridor is 222222C....bloody warm in my book 

Edited April 10, 2018 by ajpoolshark

[Mike Poole]

Just before posting the ECM, it's worth comparing output from the other models at T192, or slightly earlier in the case of the ICON, GFS first:




Well, the CMA doesn't get a run out very often, so with weather prospects next week good, why not?!
This is good cross model agreement for the warm spell, and what happens after is subject to uncertainty, we know that high pressures like this can stick around so I am not buying any breakdown from GFS in FI until we've got the high in place, then we'll see.
Rarely do we get a reasonable consistency for the UK across the whole lot at 8 days out, ensembles seem to point the same way too; here's ECM op at T192:

Edited April 10, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

ECM is brilliant again this evening

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z this evening turns into a BEAUTY, gets better and better!?..sun cream and BBQ next week, especially the second half...very summery charts developing as high pressure becomes centred to the east enabling us to import a very warm continental air mass across the whole of the uk with temperatures soaring into the low to mid 20's celsius..glorious.?

Edited April 10, 2018 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Let’s hope there’s no downgrades here...a few dry days in the high teens/low to mid twenties would be lovely now, spent most of my easter break (bar Saturday) dodging rain! Bring it on!

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean at T192, good confidence in erecting an amber member towards the UK and Scandinavia:

850s:

Edited April 10, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows strong support for a much warmer more settled spell developing next week..dare I say, an early taste of summer in mid april!?

[Summer Sun]

The ECM mean is brilliant again this evening