Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[claret047]

Good Evening Summer Sun

What would those 850's equate to for us in the southeast please? About 21C or more?

Thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z 2m temps showing the warmth slowly but surely moving further north from the end of next week

 

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, claret047 said:

Good Evening Summer Sun

What would those 850's equate to for us in the southeast please? About 21C or more?

Thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

2m temps just updated (see my above post) you'd certainly be looking at high teens to low 20's dare I say it but maybe even mid 20's in the favoured spots cloud permitting

[Frosty.]

Even though I'm a coldie, I post all year round and those of you who read my posts will know I like warm  / hot weather too and there's no doubt the Ecm 12z is an upgrade and shows summery charts later in the run..hope it verifies..these charts have a WOW factor!???

[stodge]

To provide some balance, the GFS 12Z OP doesn't really go in for a warm snap or spell.

Things start to get more interesting at the very end:

Anyone fancy an Arctic blast to end April ?

[Mike Poole]

Interested in this low pressure in the Atlantic that  comes up against the higher pressure to the east,  JMA ramps this one up, result massive southerly, let's see where it goes in future runs.

Edited April 7, 2018 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

Certainly looks like the whole omega upper ridge pattern is retrogressive in the 6/10 day period as it brings itself over nw Europe and we finally see a spell of springlike weather. 

thereafter, it looks to slowly continue its journey west with temps slowly returning back towards normal late week 2. This continued retrogression is clearly too far out to be secure - can spring hang on and the uk avoid the developing scrussian upper trough ?? 

[huntso]

Looks like its getting progressively warmer from the east, but we still look to be on the cusp.

I'm off to Berlin for a few days and it looks quite warm there this coming week hope its arrived here by the time I return

 

[Summer Sun]

00z ECM 2m temps showing temps beginning to rise from Europe towards the end of the week under that warmer air higher teens would be likely with low 20's certainly possible cloud permitting. Until you get the warmer air some places in the north could struggle to make double digits where you're plagued by cloud and or mist from the north sea

[stodge]

Morning all

No time for the detailed analysis this morning - back tomorrow - but some consistency starting to appear in medium term.

The coming week's easterly now looks to be more short-lived than had been envisaged in earlier output but the incursion from the Atlantic also gets watered down and there's a strong signal for a re-emergence of heights to the NE by T+240:

GEM 00Z OP:

ECM 00Z:

GFS 00Z OP:

GFS perhaps a shade less progressive than the others. However, persistent as the signal for heights to the NE is, so is the signal for the trough over or just to the south of the British Isles so the Scandinavian HP keeps things fine for the north and west while the south and east are always under threat from rain or showers. Not sure we're going to get the sun-kissed spring nirvana some on here seem anxious to forecast.

[stodge]

Looking at the GFS 06Z OP illustrates the problem:

If the Scandinavian HP moves too far east, the warm plume of air from the SE passes to the east and north east of the British Isles and instead the trough returns to southern areas bringing back a risk of rain or showers and re-enforcing the slack flow off the North Sea.

[Summer Sun]

Spain and Portugal finally getting hotter not too bad for the UK either though closer to the coast could always be that bit cooler

[stodge]

Wouldn't it be fun to get that nice blue blob a few hundred miles further west ?

[huntso]

35 minutes ago, stodge said:

Wouldn't it be fun to get that nice blue blob a few hundred miles further west ?

No it wouldn't, especially bad for wildlife and lets just have what we expect for spring

[Summer Sun]

The 06z London ens on Wednesday showed the mean heading down closer to average towards the end of the coming week

Today's London 06z shows the mean now remaining above average until at least the 23rd

Hope these upgrades for the warmer air continue

Edited April 8, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Atmogenic]

1 hour ago, stodge said:

Wouldn't it be fun to get that nice blue blob a few hundred miles further west ?

No thanks I've had enough of the cold now its time for us warmies to get our treat. 

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, huntso said:

No it wouldn't, especially bad for wildlife and lets just have what we expect for spring

Indeed all wildlife would cease to exist if cold weather returns in April.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, huntso said:

No it wouldn't, especially bad for wildlife and lets just have what we expect for spring

Indeed. Coldies need to give up the ghost and admit that winter is over. Come back again in November.

[Polar Maritime]

And back to discussing the Models please, Thankyou all.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z ends with warm high pressure centred to the east..I really think after the week ahead we will see above average temperatures widely as the MO are again indicating which is very good news.???

Edited April 8, 2018 by Frosty.

[049balt]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 00z ends with warm high pressure centred to the east..I really think after the week ahead we will see above average temperatures widely as the MO are again indicating which is very good news.???

Great to see your posts Frosty.Looks like a we are in for a taste of Summer, at least for a while.

[Midlands Ice Age]

For all you 'cold junkies' out there,  (and others with an interest), I have finally produced a report which I promised about 3 weeks ago on the 850's associated with our coldest weather.

Initially I used the work of bringback1962-63, which contained about 20 different events.

More recently Weatherhistory has been producing reports showing all CET events of 5 days or more where the CET was below 0.0C.

This is a much more extensive selection of the data available.

 

I  have used this data and also used the NCEP reanaalysis archive facility  on Meteociel  to go back to 1870 in my for my review of the 850's.

 I have 'published' the report on my Dropbox. Anyone can keep a copy of the report for their own use.

The link is provided below -

https://www.dropbox.com/s/hcnnc12ncl77puj/Winter review 13 Final.pdf?dl=0

MIA

[John Cox]

Thank you so much for this report.

I note with pleasure 6th Jan 1982 (showing my age). It was my most memorable snow event.

You state"

A slight trend to more severe weather in 'late winter' is more obvious. The last 10 years now shows this trend extending into March"

Have you any information as to why we are generally now having the most cold periods in late winter/early spring?

[Mike Poole]

Quiet in here.  Spoiler alert, maybe people have seen the GFS T240.

Before we get to that, here's UKMO and GFS at T144.

GFS the cleaner of the two, UKMO looks a bit messy, GFS looks quite pleasant re temperatures in the southeast at least

Although some showers can't be ruled out.

Then the aforementioned T240, just vile!

Edited April 8, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Midlands Ice Age]

33 minutes ago, John Cox said:

Thank you so much for this report.

I note with pleasure 6th Jan 1982 (showing my age). It was my most memorable snow event.

You state"

A slight trend to more severe weather in 'late winter' is more obvious. The last 10 years now shows this trend extending into March"

Have you any information as to why we are generally now having the most cold periods in late winter/early spring?

John..

 Thanks for the note.

I am afraid that I did not carry out examinations as to the reasons, I just noted the common occurrences as I was scanning through the historic re-analysis. If I had got side-tracked I would never have finished!

Typically, I examined up to  168 hours, after the initial date.

I did notice the straight Northerlies of the 19th Century, the fact  that the  Scandy high was south in the 1930's, and afterwards I realised how little cold we had in the earlier years for the period March onwards.

 The interesting thing would have been if we had the data going back to the 17th and 18th Centuries. 

Ah well..

Anyone fancy looking at the 'hot' outbreaks to see a similar pattern?

 I get the impression they are not so numerous, but who knows... 

MIA

Edited April 8, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age