Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Mike Poole]

ECM out to T24 and it looks like the head of a giant hippopotamus is slumped right across the country

And the weather feels like that too, roll on a warm up 

[Purga]

P11 is a corker...

[phil nw.]

A few posts have been hidden.

Please be friendly to each other when disagreeing.

There is no need to dwell on opposing views,just add your comments politely maybe with a chart or some other data to make your points?

Remember this is a hobby we all share so let's get on,

Ta.

Edited April 2, 2018 by phil nw.

[stodge]

ECM 12Z OP at T+168:

The HP then moves east into Scandinavia as the trough to the south of the British Isles eases back north so the worst of the rain or showers to southern areas. 

GFS 12Z OP at the same time:

GFS 12Z Control at the same time:

GFS slightly more progressive than ECM but the trend is the same. The HP moves into Scandinavia and the trough moves back across the British Isles albeit as a shallow feature so showers rather than rain.

NAVGEM 12Z at the same time:

A more amplified option with a tighter gradient over the British Isles. Beast 4.0 over Scandinavia but NOT coming our way (probably).

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM at T216, looks good for high pressure to the eastnortheast, this mid month settled spell will be most welcome.

I'm taking a break from posting in here for a while.  My brother is getting married on 14th, I am weather watching for that.  Will be back on here first sign in the models of a genuine plume or heat wave.  Regards, Mike.

[Frosty.]

A pretty mild Ecm 12z this evening with temps into the low to mid teens celsius at times across the southern half of the uk, especially further south, this thursday looks the exception with a cooler day and northern uk (scotland / n.ireland) is generally cooler than further south with some chilly nights although it does become mild up there next week but for england and wales overall it looks like reasonable temps during the next 10 days according to this run,  it does look generally rather unsettled but with some fine spells at times.

 

 

Edited April 2, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Actually, I can't let go without posting the ECM T240 temps at 850, just look at that red porpoise, want to see much more of him over the summer, and much closer!

[Purga]

Still a possible cheeky easterly setting up?

[bluearmy]

Those low euro heights proving very tough to shake off, especially to our south which keeps us away from any decent period of more settled conditions for the next ten days at least. 

The gefs mean storm track is pretty Mediterranean but at this time of year it doesn’t take much to generate showers without high slp. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by bluearmy

[Summer Sun]

The 00z 7-day forecast mean once again shows England and Wales trending a bit above average with the coolest conditions mainly in northern Scotland

[Summer Sun]

After the weekend 00z GEM doesn't have that much rain for the UK Monday sees a bit of cooler air for a few days milder air moves in again with temps getting back towards the mid-teens quite widely

[Summer Sun]

Week 1

The ECM weeklies show above average temps up to about Humberside this week coldest in Scotland where it remains well below average slightly below average for northern England

Week 2

Scotland loses the really cold air though the east coast could still remain a bit below average away from here temps more widely a bit above average

Week 3

Possibly the best week of the month UK wide with temps slightly above average for just about all

Week 4

Cooler than average temps again in the north but nothing as cold as this week

[johnholmes]

An interesting upper air pattern being predicted on all 3 anomaly charts, see below. I have to confess I am unsure what the surface weather would be under such a pattern?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[SLEETY]

still the models want to develop high pressure over Scandinavia again,in a weeks time,depending exactly where it settles ,could turn warm,or another very cold blast for the time of year.certainly interesting to see repeated high pressure cells in that region.Will that trend continue throughout the year.

And how sad all the posters dissappear,or only post if cold is showing,pathetic really ,no point having a forum after March  

 

 

[stodge]

Morning all

An interesting Easter Weekend for many weather wise. Plenty of rain and indeed snow for some with LP never far away. Some, it seems, are now craving spring and warmer temperatures. The weather of course doesn't care what you or I think. Inevitably it will get warmer and drier but how, when and where is as always up for grabs.

This morning time to look ahead to the middle of the month with the synoptic summary for Friday March 13th and I'll start with the ECM 00Z OP for T+240:

The change in pattern likely from this weekend takes us in a different direction into the second week of April. The LP fills and disrupts to the south and west of the British Isles allowing heights to build to the north which in turn lowers heights over Europe and the British Isles gets various flavours of an E'ly flow. Some were claiming it would be a balmy or warm SE'ly and were heralding the arrival of spring but the ECM this morning is much less convincing. 850s are around or just below zero and the really warm air is well to the SE.

Southern areas have a cool ENE'ly flow likely to contain rain or showers but fine under light winds further north with perhaps night frosts in Scotland.

On then to GEM 00Z at T+240:

The evolution is very different. The LP this weekend disrupts and sinks south to Iberia and HP sets up over the British Isles but that in turn starts to sink SE as the trough starts to return north over France so the British Isles is left in a warm SE'ly air flow and dry for most with the increasing threat of showers from the south. Note the jet kept a long way north.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

Unusually for GFS, a messy and complex evolution through this week and into next. After a brief warmer spell this weekend, the LP slides SE into Europe but keeps the trough trailing along the Channel. Heights build into Scandinavia from the NW and a chilly E'ly sets up early next week after which the Scandinavian heights retreat north allowing a very cold flow into Scandinavia while a complex trough sets up over NW Europe and the British Isles so very light winds but showers by day and chilly at night with a risk of frosts.

Further into FI and as it often does, the GFS brings back the Atlantic with deep LP and SW winds returning to the British Isles.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

A complex trough covers the British isles with rain or showers likely for many under light winds. Further into FI, the Control follows the OP in bringing back Atlantic dominance.

The GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

P4 would give any self-respecting fan of spring the wobbles. It's about as good a chart as any cold weather fan could wish for at this time. Nonetheless, it's on its own though it's fair to say a significant number of E'ly sourced charts in the suite. A few SW'lies and one or two warm HP set ups but a mixed bag overall as you'd expect and the trend for heights to the east or north east still looks strong at this time.

Beyond that I sense no strong signal for anything at this time and a vast array of synoptic options on the table.

In summary, as I've said for weeks now, the transition to spring is the battle between competing warmer and colder air masses. This past weekend has seen the British Isles as part of the battle ground and the result has been copious amounts of rain. With a recent SSW and no strong jet signal, the colder air masses have been stronger and more entrenched and in the next 7-10 days, the struggle continues as a brief warmer spell at the end of this week looks set to be followed by a return to chilly E'ly winds next week. Whether the Atlantic will win out as we reach the middle of the month remains to be seen but as long as we have heights to the north east and a trough over Europe it's not going to get warm quickly.

That being said, some now want dry more than warm and the problem with the absence of a strong jet and little sign of the Azores HP coming into play this morning is that it leaves the trough to sit aimlessly close to the British Isles keeping the rain and showers going.

[stodge]

The 06Z OP going in a completely different direction to the 00Z OP at quite short range:

No sign of any northern heights on this - instead, the Atlantic moves back in but also note a much stronger Azores HP trying to ridge NE across southern parts.

Edited April 3, 2018 by stodge

[Summer Sun]

06z GFS has hit the buffers at t144 seems to be an issue at the moment

[stodge]

Very different evolution to the 00Z OP:

The T+234 chart shows much stronger Atlantic influence and unsettled with LP close to Ireland. Not cold by any means but no sign of anything settled or warm from this but it's a major change of direction from GFS and we'll have to see if it is picking up a new trend (MJO passing through 7-8-1 more quickly and into phases 3 and 4 perhaps ?)

[Summer Sun]

As you were for the 7-day forecast mean

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

still the models want to develop high pressure over Scandinavia again,in a weeks time,depending exactly where it settles ,could turn warm,or another very cold blast for the time of year.certainly interesting to see repeated high pressure cells in that region.Will that trend continue throughout the year.

And how sad all the posters dissappear,or only post if cold is showing,pathetic really ,no point having a forum after March  

 

 

Generally happens spring/autumn and after a decent winter re modelling it’s no surprise peeps need a break !

 

[lassie23]

4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

still the models want to develop high pressure over Scandinavia again,in a weeks time,depending exactly where it settles ,could turn warm,or another very cold blast for the time of year.certainly interesting to see repeated high pressure cells in that region.Will that trend continue throughout the year.

And how sad all the posters dissappear,or only post if cold is showing,pathetic really ,no point having a forum after March  

 

 

there's the storm hunting lot that surface in April but they have their own thread

[cheese]

52 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Generally happens spring/autumn and after a decent winter re modelling it’s no surprise peeps need a break !

 

I think the forum is a better place when the winter-only posters have disappeared anyway, because they're really just snow enthusiasts rather than weather enthusiasts. 

[Purga]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

I think the forum is a better place when the winter-only posters have disappeared anyway, because they're really just snow enthusiasts rather than weather enthusiasts. 

There's only so much enthusiasm (very limited!) that one can muster for rain & drizzle after a couple of tasty Beasts - LOL

 

[cheese]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

There's only so much enthusiasm (very limited!) that one can muster for rain & drizzle after a couple of tasty Beasts - LOL

 

You're quite right, though at least the rain is now mild rather than cold as it has been for the past month (bar the short-lived cold snaps).

[BlueHedgehog074]

As much as I’m enjoying reading the conversation above, let’s get back to the models please guys. Tar!