Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Mike Poole]

This is really not a bad mean chart at all from ECM at T240:

It does look now that some kind of settled spell around mid month is much the form horse, and we need it after all this rain.  Very difficult to forecast where we might go after that though, for another day!

[Purga]

36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Depends which model you're looking at, the Ecm 12z would be a lot warmer than 14c next saturday, at least further south / southeast!

 

Nope - ECM showing max about 58F (14.4C) at 1pm Sat next week.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-f/20180407-1800z.html

Probably due to extensive cloud cover

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/total-cloud-coverage/20180407-1800z.html

Edited April 1, 2018 by Purga

[Daniel*]

58 minutes ago, Purga said:

 

Nope - ECM showing max about 58F (14.4C) at 1pm Sat next week.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-f/20180407-1800z.html

Probably due to extensive cloud cover

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/total-cloud-coverage/20180407-1800z.html

Erm.. no way it would only reach that! 

It doesn’t 64F = 17.7C and that’s not even the warmest part of the day I reckon a chance of 20C on Saturday in east. 12C uppers possible, the air is very warm from n Africa, March was a very warm month there.

Will feel warm irrespective of cloud and likely humid too with some Atlantic air too in mix.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

 

Nope - ECM showing max about 58F (14.4C) at 1pm Sat next week.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-f/20180407-1800z.html

Probably due to extensive cloud cover

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/total-cloud-coverage/20180407-1800z.html

What about if the sun comes out?..predicting extensive cloud cover six days ahead is on shaky ground..anyway, hope next weekend is warm, it at least has the potential to be warm!???

Edited April 1, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

ECM 00z shows the high drifting east as we move into next week

[Summer Sun]

GFS 00z remains pretty similar to the previous few runs on the 7-day forecast mean with England and Wales seeing temps getting slightly above average but remaining a bit below in Scotland and NI

[bluearmy]

Strong sceuro ridge seems certain now. Atlantic upper trough pushing se into Iberia on its western flank presents possibilities for us to draw up some warm air for more than the odd day. However, if the lows get further east into Europe then we see a flow which is more east than south and the North Sea will get involved re suppression of temps and sunshine amounts. 

then we have to wait to see if the sceuro ridge remains to our east or tends west over time

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows a generally unsettled and mild week ahead, mildest further south, the weekend looks even warmer, especially across the southeast where temps could reach 18 / 19c 65f...beyond that, quite a slow moving pattern continues with predominantly changeable conditions with some decent fine spells at times and temperatures overall a big improvement on spring so far, especially further south but still with some cold days and occasionally frosty nights, mainly further north.

[frosty ground]

11 hours ago, Frosty. said:

What about if the sun comes out?..predicting extensive cloud cover six days ahead is on shaky ground..anyway, hope next weekend is warm, it at least has the potential to be warm!???

Predicting sunny spless 6 days in advance is equally on shaky grounds is it not?

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows a band of rain moving slowly across the country during Friday by Saturday the rain stalls for a time as it moves towards the SE before fizzling out later in the day

Sunday we have rain moving up from the south fizzling out the further north it gets. Monday we have further cloud and some rain in the south but a better chance of something brighter developing further north

Tuesday the high has drifted a bit further east allowing the cloud to thin and break a bit more widely with only the south-west still at risk of some showers. Wednesday sees a bit more cloud developing again but some breaks are possible with the risk of further showers in the south-west

[Summer Sun]

GEM 00z shows some showers or longer spells of rain at times with the milder air but it isn't a complete washout by any means

Edited April 2, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters for mid-month - high pressure slightly to our north still favoured. Dry and average temperatures is the best guess, though could suck in colder air if the NE track is long enough, and western parts at risk of rain at times on cluster 1.

  

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

Predicting sunny spless 

 

sunny spless?..that's a new one on me

Anyway, the models show some very mild weather this week and the weekend could see temps into the high teens celsius across the s / se..very spring-like indeed!?????

Edited April 2, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Some consistency from GFS with the 7-day forecast on the 06z again showing temps a bit above average for England and Wales closer to average for ROI away from the NW and slightly below average still for NI and Scotland

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters for mid-month - high pressure slightly to our north still favoured. Dry and average temperatures is the best guess, though could suck in colder air if the NE track is long enough, and western parts at risk of rain at times on cluster 1.

  

It would be just our luck to get yet more cold air dragged in- it really has been a miserable spring so far. OP runs today are not as good for warmth at the weekend or after unfortunately.

[frosty ground]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

sunny spless?..that's a new one on me

Anyway, the models show some very mild weather this week and the weekend could see temps into the high teens celsius across the s / se..very spring-like indeed!?????

Typo..... 

Why do you post charts then ignore what they say.... i know the models have moved on but saying you can't predict cloudy sky's 6 days out then saying it will be sunny is a bit hypocritical is it not?

[Skullzrulerz]

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters for mid-month - high pressure slightly to our north still favoured. Dry and average temperatures is the best guess, though could suck in colder air if the NE track is long enough, and western parts at risk of rain at times on cluster 1.

  

Good news for cold fans ? Mild fans not so much 

[Summer Sun]

Big change from ICON with the high now to our east Monday week much better for the warmth moving further north

12z

00z

Edited April 2, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Mike Poole]

Models at T144

UKMO has high pressure to our east, main thrust of warm air also missing us to the east

GEM not dissimilar

GFS for comparison going maybe further east with the ridge

All in all, would put some warm air to draw on if the high moved further north as suggested by recent output.

 

Edited April 2, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

then saying it will be sunny is a bit hypocritical is it not?

For the record, I didn't say it will be sunny so you have misquoted me!..I said what if the sun comes out, that's all..

Anyway, good news about the ICON as Gavin said above..hopefully a proper warm spell to come!???

 

Edited April 2, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GEM 12z shows very little rain after Monday and temps responding especially IF it is sunny if you're under cloud in the east temps could struggle into low double figures but in any sunshine, the mid-teens to upper wouldn't be out the question. Before then weekend looks mild and at times wet

Edited April 2, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Mike Poole]

GEM ends at T240 with a UK high 

This is what we need to see, with this mid month settled spell!  Not saying it will be long lived but we need a rest from all this cold rain!  High WAY further northeast on GFS at same time

Interesting to see where this goes in future runs.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z there is quite a bit of support for a direct hit of warmth from the south at the weekend, especially saturday when temps could really respond, reaching the high teens celsius across central, southern and southeast england.

[Summer Sun]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z there is quite a bit of support for a direct hit of warmth from the south at the weekend, especially saturday when temps could really respond, reaching the high teens celsius across central, southern and southeast england.

I certainly wouldn't rule out 18c to 20c in the London area on Saturday if skies cleared for long enough

 

Edited April 2, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Purga]

In the more reliable timeframe a chance of more snow for the north, Wales & W country moors as early as Thursday!

Edited April 2, 2018 by Purga