Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[danm]

For those looking forward to some warmer weather now (and I love cold and snow in winter as much as anyone), I actually think having the jet stream re-set into a typical zonal pattern may be a good thing for the medium to long term. 

Ever since both beasts from the East’s, we’ve had a southerly tracking jet and we’ve stayed on the cold side of it. It’s a sluggish pattern with low pressure meandering around the UK. This week has been a prime example of that. 

Hopefully with a more traditional west to east jet stream which is closer to the UK we will see low pressure systems moving through more quickly and possible pressure rises to the south. It will also hopefully allow pressure to rise over the Azores which is what we want longer term. 

[Summer Sun]

The 7-day forecast mean shows most of England and Wales getting closer to or just below average always cooler for Scotland, ROI and NI

[Interitus]

11 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Over the past few days, we’ve seen a neg AO accelerated for early/middle next week. No doubt related to the next downwelling wave from the ssw which again wasn’t picked too well by the nwp. the recipients of unseasonal cold look like being Canada and ne China

Don't think we're looking at SSW effects at this stage, the chart below of 60°N zonal winds shows that for the first time since the SSW, the 150mb level wind will be weaker than at 10mb - the reduction in zonal winds associated with the negative AO is from lower levels upwards allowing a brief return of the positive vertical wind shear characteristic of the winter vortex, before the summer easterlies return -

[mb018538]

Looks like something out of late autumn/early winter on the charts today, Atlantic firing up some deep lows and sending them our way. No signs of anything settled getting closer yet, still stuck miles out in FI as it has been for the last 5 days.

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The first plume of hopefully many  from the Gfs 00z which has got this coldie in the mood for much warmer times!????? 

And only 15 days away..... better get the BBQ out people..... 

 

Im hoping we get those charts in at closee range personally

[Midlands Ice Age]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like something out of late autumn/early winter on the charts today, Atlantic firing up some deep lows and sending them our way. No signs of anything settled getting closer yet, still stuck miles out in FI as it has been for the last 5 days.

Looks horrible (above) to me...

OK Its getting warmer, but most of the UK (apart from the SE) are getting between a further 50 - 100 mms of rainfall in 7 days,.

This is on top of large  rates of rainfall in March.

I agree with QS on this, Lets stay 'on the cold side', until we can get a decent Azores high to build and dry everyone out.

The other aspect is the effect on the blossom. This colder air is still holding it back around here.  The last thing we need is a faux warm spell followed by frost.

MIA 

 

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

And only 15 days away..... better get the BBQ out people..... 

 

Im hoping we get those charts in at closee range personally

It's model discussion so any timeframe is relevant and also the approach to mid april is the time when there is cautious optimism for warmer more settled weather..or a possible plume!???? 

[bluearmy]

28 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Don't think we're looking at SSW effects at this stage, the chart below of 60°N zonal winds shows that for the first time since the SSW, the 150mb level wind will be weaker than at 10mb - the reduction in zonal winds associated with the negative AO is from lower levels upwards allowing a brief return of the positive vertical wind shear characteristic of the winter vortex, before the summer easterlies return -

if that what the evidence shows then fine ....  interesting that we have seen the NAO making three drops into negative territory , each approx two weeks apart following the SSW and the AO doing similar (although mid March it was still negative following its post SSW drop). These ‘two weekly intervals’ are what we would expect to see following general expected post SSW trends. Of course if there is a different reason then so be it .......

[stodge]

38 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's model discussion so any timeframe is relevant and also the approach to mid april is the time when there is cautious optimism for warmer more settled weather..or a possible plume!???? 

Why not comment on this spring-like chart instead ?

Lovely chart from the GFS 00Z Control for so-called "coldies".

[Mike Poole]

There seems still considerable uncertainty over how quickly the cold air is pushed away north with the low arriving from the SW Sunday into Monday.  GEM at the colder end (T72):

ECM:

UKMO:

GFS at the warmer end:

So there could still be some surprises re snow on Monday.

[Frosty.]

Nice link up from the azores / scandi high (s) on the Gfs 6z into the 2nd week of April with a more settled and warmer few days, this would be welcome respite!..most (including me) would like this! ??????

Edited March 30, 2018 by Frosty.

[cheese]

10 hours ago, geordiekev said:

Totally agree, we are at that turning point when of course it's easy to predict things will warm up. Less chance of looking foolish now were into BST so no gold stars. However, it really gets my goat when people champion yellows on the charts without advising this means rain albeit not cold rain.

Of course at this time of year most want warmer drier weather but I wish people wouldn't just post warmer charts without mentioning rain. Those that want the Blues want snow not ice days. I would prefer honesty when those championing the warmth make mention of dull wet clouds when getting excited about warmer southerlies.

I don't know about anywhere else, but in this part of the world we have had nearly 100mm of precipitation this month - some of that is snow melt but most of it is just plain-old rain. It's already been a miserable wet month - just cold and wet. Mild and wet is certainly a big improvement over that.

Edited March 30, 2018 by cheese

[johnholmes]

42 minutes ago, cheese said:

I don't know about anywhere else, but in this part of the world we have had nearly 100mm of precipitation this month - some of that is snow melt but most of it is just plain-old rain. It's already been a miserable wet month - just cold and wet. Mild and wet is certainly a big improvement over that.

Over 90 mm here and more to come, need to check ny statistics to see how many Marches have had this total in 20 years.

I doubt if we will get snow here but the Peak District and Pennines may do quite well on Monday looking at the models.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, there are signs we could catch a break from the unsettled weather with high pressure building in towards mid april, at least across the southern half of the uk which is also indicated on some recent / current operational runs..surely it's not too much to ask for a spell of spring-like weather in April is it????

[Derecho]

 

Swingometers update

- Still the models are uncertain about early next week! The GFS is indicating that snow may be restricted to the NW on higher ground. 
- All GFS members now have milder air over much of the UK on Tuesday but a very unsettled picture
- However other recent model output is still varying from this to some extent
- A clear trend for the cyclonic picture to carry on through the first week of April, however these trends can flip, I hope they do....
- No trend as of yet into mid April, anything is a possibility at this point.

[winterof79]

Looking like the colder air which arrives over the weekend may push south later in the week once more

UKMO

GEFS Mean

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=262&y=34

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

 

Swingometers update

- Still the models are uncertain about early next week! The GFS is indicating that snow may be restricted to the NW on higher ground. 
- All GFS members now have milder air over much of the UK on Tuesday but a very unsettled picture
- However other recent model output is still varying from this to some extent
- A clear trend for the cyclonic picture to carry on through the first week of April, however these trends can flip, I hope they do....
- No trend as of yet into mid April, anything is a possibility at this point.

Looks like the strong e euro ridge will try and push its influence further west. Probably becoming sceuro and potentially scandi on occasions. The fate of nw Europe remains uncertain as we wonder how the Azores ridge and Atlantic trough play out. we could end up sitting in a bit of no mans land. 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

- No trend as of yet into mid April, anything is a possibility at this point.

Actually there is a trend into mid april towards high pressure which I showed on the GEFS 6z mean and has also been mentioned in the latest update from exeter which is for a spell of more settled conditions, especially across southern uk with an increasing number of warmer days but also some cold nights with frost and fog.?

[sebastiaan1973]

I wonder if and when we see the effects of MJO phase 7. Which has a composition of an Atlantic high.

[Purga]

Nice bit of snow for Dartmoor today...

Get up high to escape the rain down there.

[Derecho]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Actually there is a trend into mid april towards high pressure which I showed on the GEFS 6z mean and has also been mentioned in the latest update from exeter which is for a spell of more settled conditions, especially across southern uk with an increasing number of warmer days but also some cold nights with frost and fog.?

There is a theme of height rises over Scandi perhaps but it may not be too settled if the Atlantic is coming against it. I'd say a weak theme for high pressure towards mid-April based on the ensemble swingometers. I'm not sure if the mean is helpful sometimes as a few extreme ensemble members can skew things. Its best to look at what each one is showing and tally them up.

It will be more settled, though it can't get any more unsettled then what it is now! A transient ridge into the second week of April would be nice but can it hold off the Atlantic?

[Summer Sun]

Nice to see JMA has returned after a number of issues during the week

Sunday evening it has the -4 line down to about the Wash

By Monday evening it has the -4 line around southern Scotland

[Summer Sun]

Can't see much in the way of snow for England and Wales on Monday if the GFS 850's are right the Pennines might be the best spot along with Scotland

 

[Mike Poole]

Maybe, but GEM has the colder air much further south - at same time T66

As this morning, GEM and GFS significantly different, one (or both) will be wrong!

Edited March 30, 2018 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Can't see much in the way of snow for England and Wales on Monday if the GFS 850's are right the Pennines might be the best spot along with Scotland

 

got to agree SS, telling many people today that monday won't snow, in fact quite the opposite 10 degrees