Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z has milder air pushing north on Easter Monday battleground snow probable somewhere in northern England

[Summer Sun]

ECM t144 milder air continuing its journey north

Remaining cold with an ongoing chance of snow in Scotland

Edited March 28, 2018 by Summer Sun

[be cause]

looking like winter is back for a lot of us .. here N.Ireland is headed for 13th and 14th significant falls (locally) by the current gfs or ECM .. seems when the wind has been blowing toward us across the whole Arctic tor weeks the models do not perform well in the mid-term .. but wintery weather becomes our lot .. possibly a whole lot .. b.c.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well off to Orlando next week, need a touch of warmth, Spring isn’t coming yet!  UKMO looking cold, snow will be used again in forecasts for many particularly next week 3-8 April.   Enjoy and I’ll pop in when back after taking on The Hulk.  After my dad passing away....sod it in for a penny...big hols blow out

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z isn't really all that cold away after Easter Sunday from Scotland and early next week Northern England still a while off proper spring warmth but not too bad for the south if you can avoid the rain/showers

[Mike Poole]

ECM out to T 240 now.  Amazing how fast they can get it out when it's been delayed, do they normally drag it out over a whole hour just to torment us, I wonder!

T240:

Seems it's taken its power out problems on us in the UK anyway! 

Edited March 28, 2018 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

Mmm a rather disappointing outlook for the easter period, limited dry sunny spells, temps for many languishing in single digit highs, and often quite windy with spells of rain, and wintry precipitation on higher ground in the north. Still it is only late March, but many I suspect would be hoping for something much better.

The models are trending back to a generally cool/cold pattern, with low heights coming unstuck due to increasingly stronger heights to the NW digging SW which in turn enable a northerly to surface mid next week, and then possibly a cold frosty ridge.

Northern parts may see another wet snowfall Monday.

Roll on May..

[Tim Bland]

ECM has snow M4 North on Monday 

 

[snowrye]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM has snow M4 North on Monday 

 

That blasted m4 corridor

[Mike Poole]

I wonder if we are starting to see high pressure to the northwest putting up a bit more of a fight.  Here's the GFS 18z at T96, I wonder if those two lows to the west might slide under.

850s only good for snow for the north with the current predicted 850s though:

 

Edited March 28, 2018 by Mike Poole

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I wonder if we are starting to see high pressure to the northwest putting up a bit more of fight.  Here's the GFS 18z at T96, I wonder if those two lows to the west might slide under.

850s only good for snow for the north though:

 

Ukmo looking really isolated now am afraid!!looks like this is gone be similar to 12z and bulldoze milder air further  north!!if gfs doesnt go with the ukmo by 00z run then expect maybe a ukmo backtrack to something milder from monday afternoon!

[feb1991blizzard]

Poor 18z suite so far, everything further North.

[DIS1970]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Poor 18z suite so far, everything further North.

Don't worry it'll change back again in 6 hours time.

[John Michael How]

5 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Yes, as always we have to wait. Latest GFS shows a typical MJO phase 7 chart.

Out of interest what does the high pressure look like? The pink or blue areas?I'm travelling to Mauritius on Friday in the vast pink section- hoping their unusually wet summer has come to an end! Abnormally warm SSTs have meant an even warmer than average late summer there?????‍♂️

Edited March 28, 2018 by John Michael How

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM has snow M4 North on Monday 

 

We seem to be settling to  an Easter Monday snow event. Early days on detail though. No reason why this couldn't be a little further north - or south...

[JamesL]

UKMO looking like it's keeping the snow threat going across the UK with its 0z run. Difficult to know exactly as no access to the 850's 

96/120/144 

Edited March 29, 2018 by JamesL

[bluearmy]

Perhaps I was a little hasty .........

Worried for @liam Dutton .........

lets see how the 12z’s look but the dp’s on this ec op are holding lower further south mon/tues with the surface colder than the uppers indicate under a more slack regime 

 

[JamesL]

And the EC also shunting everything South as well following on from the UKMO.

For comparison here are 96/120/144 

[Frosty.]

I think most of us would be very happy if the Gfs 00z op / Gefs 00z mean is right about the trend towards mid april with high pressure and pleasant low / mid 60's F  warmth! ?????

Edited March 29, 2018 by Frosty.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Karl

Below average for first 10 days or so with HP holding firm to NW with E/NE flow with general troughing Europe.  Then I’ll bring warmth back with me as HP builds across us and to our E.  Very deep (noteworthy) LP system to ‘switch’ the weather cool again as it crosses right through the U.K. for last 10 days or so.  That’s generally my April outlook.  I like the idea of the GFS deep FI

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I like the idea of the GFS deep FI

 

BFTP

Me too Fred, hope you have a nice holiday in Florida?????

[mb018538]

Looks rubbish to me....any hint of something more settled building in keeps being pushed back into deepest FI. Going by the ecm, I’d say we are quite a way off anything settled or warm. Just unsettled with rain/showers, temps just below or just above average.

[Summer Sun]

Delighted to say the 7-day temp trend ditches the blues for the north as virtually all of the UK trends slightly above average (the north joins in around midweek)

Edited March 29, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Mike Poole]

GEFS 0z runs giving a chance of snow on Easter Sunday.  Here's the probability of snow during the 24 hours of Sunday:

Main risk looks M4 north, how many times have we heard that. 

But then, at the end of the run, the mean shows high pressure increasingly taking charge, so some settled weather to come, hopefully, ties in with yesterday's Met Office update.

[Summer Sun]

ARPEGE again looks mostly dry during Easter day though the odd fairly isolated shower can't be ruled out during daylight hours of which they could turn wintry at times over high ground. Later in the day, a more organised band of rain spreads in from the south-west this again could turn wintry as it moves towards Wales and the Midlands most likely again over higher ground but wet snow to lower levels is still possible

Edited March 29, 2018 by Summer Sun