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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

If only these outputs had shown up a month earlier , the UKMO looks quite cold and will it be just a bucket of cold rain or something a bit more wintry?

Its amazing how long it’s taken to nail down the Easter weekend weather with the models all over the place for days .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 96 120 is a dont look now if you like Spring....

WOW...

YES WOW, I didn't see that one coming!!

 

17 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

why?

Because its a stonker for cold and snow.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

It sure is an interesting outlook depending on which model you believe. Quite a lot of wet weather for many looking at the GFS rainfall total charts.

Will the UK Met model or GFS be nearer the mark, or ECMWF.  As Reef commented, for whatever reason, all the models seem to struggle with how to deal with surface lows coming from the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Thanks! That's good news for me; I love the snow! because I couldn't be asked to get the UKMO 12z up.

UN120-21_hot1.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
13 minutes ago, reef said:

The reason the GFS is milder is that it winds up the low to south-west much more than the UKMO, which sees it weaken and sink southwards. I wouldn't be surprised if there is quite a spread on the GFS ensembles at this range depending on how this low deepens.

The models are notoriously poor at forecasting lows approaching from the south-west so it might be a few more runs before its more concrete, even at this close range.

I think the thing that has struck me most in recent days is that the models seem to be really underestimating the block to the NW, if the cold air wins out it would be interesting to see where the CET ends up after week 1...

Some of the 06z members didn't even have the warmer air make any inroads on Monday and disrupted the low and sent it through the channel instead...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Some very significant snowfall for Northern areas early next week, could be looking at 3-4 days of sub zero maxes for central Northend England with persistent snowfall and cloud cover. 

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

6 runs going cold from weekend on th 06z

Wonder how many after 12z will the UKMO prove correct?

 

Screenshot_20180328-173552.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Comparison of the main models at T96 in terms of 850s. UKMO:

UW96-7.GIF?28-18

GFS:

gfs-1-96.png?12

GEM:

gem-1-96.png?12

ICON:

icon-1-96.png?28-12

ARPEGE:

arpegeeur-1-96.png?12

To my mind the models are firming up on the colder outlook for Easter, GEM has the milder air farthest north, whether we see any snow, and where, may be marginal, so we await more runs.  Wonder what the ECM will do tonight?

Edit: add in the probability from GEFS of 850 temp below -5C at the same time:

gensprobuk-28-96.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The 12z 7-day temp trend has it warming up away from the North

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.e7d7fca9ce6b21485fc4459632d15b7a.png

If GFS has the position of the low wrong and UKMO is right the above chart can be binned

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

If you compare last nights fax chart at T96 hrs with todays to T72 hrs you can see just how much it’s changed in relation to low pressure in the Atlantic , a flattening of that with the block to the nw pushing further south .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
6 hours ago, stodge said:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

Indeed, yesterday's forecast hinted at a 7-8-1 progression starting now which would perhaps explain the colder signal in the GFS output this morning. However, all the models are hinting at a return to a more traditional pattern during the second week of April so perhaps the progression will be quite quick. OTOH, the models may simply be playing the "default" game in lieu of a stronger signal. I wonder if Phase 2 or 3 in April would support an MLB close to the British Isles.

Yes, as always we have to wait. Latest GFS shows a typical MJO phase 7 chart.

z500_p7_04_1mon.png

GFSOPEU12_384_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Looks like the cold is going to be getting the upper hand across most of the British Isles during next week. May be winters last hurrah, with snow events looking quite possible. After that though and its beginning to look like April may miss out on spring and go straight into summer. We may get to use our Sledge and our BBQ in close succession in April !

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Potential for some fairly sharp and widespread frosts during and after Easter with Arctic air settling over the UK under high pressure. A mild blip occurs for a few days but then back to the chiller again. Much along the lines to be expected methinks & warm springlike weather is a way off yet.

image.thumb.png.f945089537bfe79c205a3023ea856b60.pngimage.thumb.png.0a07f943db52796fce28d1864fc7fb1f.pngimage.thumb.png.14019fd1e46d915dcd1236487e272c29.pngimage.thumb.png.3fbf104371e65460c77b92b45981fd24.png

Then

image.thumb.png.18cfbf4acb931154b45133c59b750088.pngimage.thumb.png.178a443c7fdedb7bff9f274a1acff654.png

And finishes on a very cold easterly!

image.thumb.png.1391eb1b6d8dd360f60066ba1296428f.pngimage.thumb.png.5ac0d1017ce114e31434cf82a49b18f7.pngimage.thumb.png.45e77f5765345ed1b3a8b80ab7f873f3.png

Very similar theme from UKMO

image.thumb.png.58e1c57cf64f3a682fa1dadf46e1c7f1.pngimage.thumb.png.cbafd8b7b5a3503e8bb572a47612ff94.png

Could be tricky for tender plants!

:)

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM stuck at T24 on Meteociel,  which is mildly irritating because I'm keen to see which of the other models it throws its weight behind!   

Meanwhile, the end of the GFS run looks like a welcome anticyclone, here at T288

gfs-0-288.png?12

Cold air in place but surely potentially the start of spring or even summer on this run.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Its amazing how long it’s taken to nail down the Easter weekend weather with the models all over the place for days .

 

Must be a lack of data over Easter week. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

UKMO pretty remarkable with the evolution of the low to the west/south west come Sunday/Monday !!!

winds remain resolutely easterly or north easterly for the majority, none of the milder southerly air getting into the mix at all :0 definitely some frontal snowfall in there I would think.

IMG_3520.thumb.PNG.2ce6c2ae9124a4b82d91cb4532e00401.PNG

IMG_3521.thumb.PNG.8ef4cc68756c0f102fafb5b9201d82ee.PNG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12z ARPEGE fairly similar to this morning with a half decent day on Easter day temps obviously on the cooler side of normal and just a few isolated showers. Monday sees rain and milder air moving up from the SW turning wintry as it moves north

arpegeuk-1-110-0.thumb.png.4af0412735f9cdd2277094710b63d622.pngarpegeuk-1-111-0.thumb.png.11ff529b0da8f1064a9f8c0f403f75a3.pngarpegeuk-1-112-0.thumb.png.db49897cd88e63d7663b2d5467262e47.pngarpegeuk-1-113-0.thumb.png.f1a537fb58ff40fbdebcd0207b8878e9.pngarpegeuk-1-114-0.thumb.png.f30bf9f23ae08ae613cafc21d9a1a2f9.png

arpegeuk-16-102-0.thumb.png.78c8586bf8a20639134d67548dc014cf.pngarpegeuk-16-108-0.thumb.png.8e7b606a7e5b25ac3ca95e170869e359.pngarpegeuk-16-114-0.thumb.png.94a785c43ecdb8be8e08b3ff44f748c0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Seems to be some hints on the London ens for some higher pressure as we go through next weekend and into the following week

Lower precipitation spikes from next weekend

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.64b7a2614097de94b8f7cbb4a98d9c16.png

Fairly good agreement for higher pressure

gefsensmslpLondon.thumb.png.e6c26c5a0106a74deeb903d3fa4ee3a8.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Fabulous bit of snow for the Welsh on monday!

image.thumb.png.89daba5cdecab1545e104d62a7f72aa9.png

:clap::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, PerfectStorm said:

Must be a lack of data over Easter week. :D

Whether there's a lack of input data or not, there certainly is a lack of output data at ECMWF tonight, cant recall it ever being this late before.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

While we wait for the ECM, here's the FIM9 take on the precipitation into Monday morning, T 114:

fim-0-114.png?12

Low from SW pushing up and making inroads into cold air:

fim-1-114.png?12

Leading to snow overnight, north of M4:

fim-2-114.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Yes, ECM rolling again, here's the T96:

ECM0-96.GIF?28-0

ECM1-96.GIF?28-0

For  comparison, the UKMO at the same time.
UW96-7.GIF?28-19

UW96-21.GIF?28-19

  Cold Easter.

Interested to see the next frame!

Edit, it's a push from the south, so short lived cold snap:

ECM1-144.GIF?28-12

Edited by Mike Poole
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