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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

It really is all up for grabs at the moment, typical I guess for a long drawn out transition from Winter to Spring, eager to hold on to Winter tonight is the FIM9, here at T216:

fim-1-216.png?12

fim-0-216.png?12

Direct from the North, route 1! The warmer air will win in the end, obviously, and most including me will welcome it when it does - I like summer weather too! but there may still be twists and turns along the way.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Evening all

Been model watching for last 7 days and most of them have been changing their minds from run to run on this so called 3rd beastie boy ,which at first was going to happen later this week to only hitting scotland to happening over easter to then staying north to then happening early next week to now tonight staying north of the Midlands with uppers of only minus 5 up there

So it's a classic situation of anything can change beyond 72 hours at the moment ,so the forecast for easter after Friday will range from cold weather moving south to milder air moving north reaching all bar scotland

So still anything can happen over the coming days with none of the models showing what's goin g on with the weather ,though it does look as if the real minus 10 uppers will be staying well north of us unless the pub run shows otherwise:wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The ICON is looking interesting from a cold perspective at just T96. Just shows how volatile the set up is at the moment, certainly can't rule out snowy potential for the weekend on basis of this.

icon-0-96.png?27-18

icon-1-96.png?27-18

Only now at the end of this run (T120) does the second of these two lows we seem to have been tracking for days push in so we're still in a cold set up late Sunday.

icon-1-120.png?27-18

icon-0-120.png?27-18

Edited by Mike Poole
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45 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I can’t really see this ‘snowy optimism’ unless you live on high ground or Scotland 

Fairly easy to see where a protracted snow event may come from - North meets south clash of airmasses-

GFS 18z

2BBC29E4-C780-43DA-916A-6BB415617A9C.thumb.png.98e7b2f312e11cfc2c8ffb212c703dc5.png

 

As said... somewhere in the middle-

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
53 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Fairly easy to see where a protracted snow event may come from - North meets south clash of airmasses-

GFS 18z

2BBC29E4-C780-43DA-916A-6BB415617A9C.thumb.png.98e7b2f312e11cfc2c8ffb212c703dc5.png

 

As said... somewhere in the middle-

I agree Steve.

Looks like the chance of a fairly hefty snow event somewhere early next week. The 18z pushes the risk slightly further S than the 12z

Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

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6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Fairly easy to see where a protracted snow event may come from - North meets south clash of airmasses-

GFS 18z

2BBC29E4-C780-43DA-916A-6BB415617A9C.thumb.png.98e7b2f312e11cfc2c8ffb212c703dc5.png

 

As said... somewhere in the middle-

Latest 2 GFS runs back your predictions Steve with that low moving West east very slowly Sunday into Tuesday ,current track would see snow fest on its northern flank currently from north Wales to Lincolnshire northwards upto Cumbria to Yorkshire 

Will be interesting to see how this one pans out,ie any changes to the track of this low,

On the last 2 GFS runs a white Easter is still on the cards for some favoured areas

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

 I can see the potential - I just don’t see it being of any consequence away from elevation or Scotland/borders 

wet snow/slush isn’t an event imo. 

We shall see - if the track of the secondary low becomes less sw/ne, allowing colder uppers to get further south, then I may have to change my view. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z shows winter returning next week with a snow event across central areas followed by arctic air bringing sharp frosts and snow showers, especially to the north..a very wintry early april for some areas on this run!⛄⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄❄:cold::D

00_162_preciptype.png

00_162_ukwbt.png

00_162_mslp850.png

00_231_mslp850.png

00_234_preciptype.png

00_222_uk2mtmpmin.png

cashback.jpg

winteriscoming.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Another run and we still haven't got the Euro's agreeing for Easter day on what 850's we will have

ECM0-96.thumb.GIF.2fa6f1723aaede591c21dd136dbeab88.GIFUW96-7.thumb.GIF.54bd14b84d1fef6cf695d3e40a9efde9.GIF

Maybe tonight they'll come into line??

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z has a happy ending..for coldies, especially oop north!:D:cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄

240_thickuk.png

240_thick.png

240_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

 I can see the potential - I just don’t see it being of any consequence away from elevation or Scotland/borders 

wet snow/slush isn’t an event imo. 

We shall see - if the track of the secondary low becomes less sw/ne, allowing colder uppers to get further south, then I may have to change my view. 

Nice work Blue, from Snowy optimism to an event! You mentioned something that could be defined then you corrected yourself later to something that couldn't be defined easily

Heavy wet snow can cause carnage, even if it last a few hours, stick in a frost afterwards and it gets worse.

But it's not an event* is it......

*event being what ever you want it to mean.

 

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The 7-day temperature trend has gone cooler with only the far south around or a bit above average

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.4e566ed5dd070b7ee2a6c083cb882340.png

I'm surprised you haven't mentioned the cold air is pushed away north

gfs-1-348.png

and in the sunshine it will feel nice.....

gfs-2-348.png

O dear!

Spring warmth well and truly on hold! :nea:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The ECM mean shows a chilly Easter weekend with the 850's dropping to around -8 for mainland northern Scotland and down to -6 for north east England beyond Easter the -4 line tends to stay around northern England

EDM0-96.thumb.GIF.8ed0371fd55ec16caacc81b30014d5ec.GIFEDM0-120.thumb.GIF.943fe51467f5abd367513750bdcad836.GIFEDM0-144.thumb.GIF.d5c01a478772b03faf2615c6b02e2180.GIFEDM0-192.thumb.GIF.85d907407f90dd7fa278cc9902aabeb7.GIFEDM0-240.thumb.GIF.efeb6e35a13c26bf1a6280b6b70b8695.GIF

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Nice work Blue, from Snowy optimism to an event! You mentioned something that could be defined then you corrected yourself later to something that couldn't be defined easily

Heavy wet snow can cause carnage, even if it last a few hours, stick in a frost afterwards and it gets worse.

But it's not an event* is it......

*event being what ever you want it to mean.

 

Karl - a couple hours of wet snow ? Is that what people are chasing ? 

I dont think so

a snowfall where you can go for a tramp or build a proper snowman - otherwise I’m not sure it’s of any note.

anyway, I still maintain that current modelling shows away from elevation (and Scotland) that there is little to be excited about. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

At the UKMO extended range the closest I can see to agreeing with it is on the wind direction is GFS

gfs2.2018040400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.e212726c60bbe9194bc9823e9c888e17.pngukm2.2018040400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.5550b6a1e8a5230cc95e5b95bf10b17f.png

GFS 850's at the time

gfs-1-168.thumb.png.0b6c69f257006c35e9ab7186b42ba782.pngukmaxtemp.thumb.png.7d446ac4005307b570776d5207554b63.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

 

00_162_ukwbt.pngThe M4 seems to be doing it's job nicely! (just about) south 40 miles maybe? :wallbash:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Swingometers updated for today and unfortunately if its Spring you are after then they don't look so great.

Minor details to be resolved for the weekend but saturday looks like a cold cyclonic type of pattern with most of the GEFS having the -5c line around Scotland. The odd run a bit further south

image.thumb.png.b4f5d6f7760d99fd7216fa49767b7fab.png GFSOPEU00_72_1.png

Then things get interesting, cold air tries to dig further south early next week but we also have warm air coming up from France. Monday/tuesday could see quite the contrast in temperatures with heavy rain and potentially snow where the two airmasses meet.

GFSOPEU00_144_2.png

After this, there is a growing trend in the ensembles for the cold air to win out and persist for a while.

image.thumb.png.b87bb853baeef3fe20739ae560cf707a.png GFSOPEU00_252_1.png

Though the OP is one of the colder solutions after Monday, its picture for the weekend after probably sums the picture up fairly well. Cold uppers with high pressure fairly close by.

Spring on hold unfortunately.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

06z GFS getting the milder air a bit further north early next week

06z

gfs-1-156.thumb.png.05de444d0a130883ae1de35bb2365b28.pnggfs-1-168.thumb.png.324a2534a2394c91283ad2d5c398b162.png

00z

gfs-1-162.thumb.png.675759ff957bfb464668b57a8e4dce9d.pnggfs-1-174.thumb.png.7c70e5cf3a03050752f8561de6eec5c3.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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