Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Purga]

27 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

7-day temperature trend shows the cold air slowly losing its grip on the UK with some parts from around Yorkshire south getting a bit above average still a bit below average in the north but not as cold as previous

Much as I'm sure we all appreciate your time, effort and minute by minute exciting up & down snapshots of idividual model runs, it can be a bit hair raising for newbies to follow.

A quick glance at the latest GEFS show a very uncertain picture after about 7-10 days at best. The GEFS can give a rough guide but they also vary as much as the Op runs - see below

12z yesterday - Oops it's trending colder later

18z yesterday - Oops now it's trending warmer

00z today - Oops now it's trending much warmer - summers on the way.

06z today - oops now it's trending down again and long term is an enigma!

EPS 46 & EPS are along similar lines - interesting to see how it eventually plays out.

 

[Frosty.]

To me there is currently strong support for an unseasonably wintry spell next week with a risk of snow for all areas, especially further north and on higher ground and with some very cold frosty / icy nights..a last hurrah maybe?..if it is, I don't think coldies would mind as we've seen the most wintry spells this month which were far better than anything we saw in dec / jan / feb!!...I will soon be looking for warmth / heat but not just yet with charts like these still popping up!❄❄❄❄❄ ⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄

[MP-R]

On 25 March 2018 at 22:26, damianslaw said:

Granted recent May's have been atlantic dominated, however, statistically the atlantic is at its quietest now until June, or should I say most sluggish, northerlies and easterlies are most likely to occur from now until June. The jetstream often does odd things as well, elongating, getting stuck in long ruts, but then suddenly flipping, northerlies followed by southerlies and vice versa - it marks the start of the more interesting time of year for synoptics that divert from the normal westerly zonal pattern, long fetch SW airstreams are least likely now (from a personal perspective thank goodness - they are horrid in the Lake District and often ruin a summer..).

That's what I thought but it's this exact habit that makes me associate the month as the new showers month, simply because of its tendency for westerlies. In my lifetime, October seems to have taken on May's previous synoptics with a spell of easterlies in many years. 2015 is good example.

[Summer Sun]

12z ICON looking better with the milder air making it into the south quicker during Easter Monday still chilly in the north but not desperately cold

12z

00z

Edited March 27, 2018 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

Possible back edge snow UKMO 96

[feb1991blizzard]

Rain spreading North turning to snow.

[Summer Sun]

Talk about north-south split warm rain in the south some snow in the north

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO has the -6 line quite a way south on Easter day less cold air pushing into the west during Easter Monday as a fairly big area of low pressure moves east towards the UK

[Summer Sun]

GFS replaces the northerly with a deep low ongoing chance of snow in Scotland rain elsewhere

06z

12z

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

GEM has also ditched the coldest air into early April

00z

12z

Edited March 27, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

Snow is still possible over Wales,N/Midlands, Pennines & Scotland next Monday into Tuesday, Mainly over high ground, Before milder air takes over from the South.

 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GEM has also ditched the coldest air into early April

00z

12z

You say that but it still shows a very cold week for most of northern england, northern Ireland and scotland with maxima struggling in the low single digits celsius which would be exceptionally cold for early april!

Edited March 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

The 7-day temperature trend shows in turning increasingly mild in the south always hanging onto the lower temps further north

[karyo]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The 7-day temperature trend shows in turning increasingly mild in the south always hanging onto the lower temps further north

Yes, still pretty chilly in Darlington.

[Mike Poole]

Astounded that there is not anything like consensus for the weekend.  Very messy set up.  Just for balance re the colder prospects, the ARPEGE at T114 (end of run) is looking very interesting, 850s -6 widely by Sunday:

Winds from N, then NE:

I'd have liked to see the next few frames on this one.

Edited March 27, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Ok who wants some warmth?.. the GEFS 12z shows quite a bit of support for some very mild weather across southern uk next week with temps around 15 / 16c around 60f..see how fair and balanced i am!

 

[winterof79]

46 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The 7-day temperature trend shows in turning increasingly mild in the south always hanging onto the lower temps further north

Half of Britain hanging on really

[Purga]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The 7-day temperature trend shows in turning increasingly mild in the south always hanging onto the lower temps further north

May I refer the Right Honourable Gentleman, once again, to the inconsistent GEFS outputs at the moment

00z                                                                              06z                                                                          12z

[Mike Poole]

We can't look ahead too far at the moment because there is significant uncertainty early on. ECM at T96 looks like it favours the milder air pushing further north:

Compare ARPEGE at same time,the issue is how much of a ridge builds between the two lows.

Edited March 27, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

Good agreement for Sunday between ECM and UKMO...

Try again tomorrow

Edited March 27, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Easter Monday and ECM has the cold air going north out the way

[Mike Poole]

Massive surge of mild air at T144:

All fuelled by the low to the west:

But can't be counted on (and nor can the colder solutions) until the earlier uncertainty is fully resolved.

Edited March 27, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Massive surge of mild air at T144:

All fuelled by the low to the west:

But can't be counted on until the earlier uncertainty is resolved.

TBF UKMO also has that big low to our west which would get the milder air surging north probably around t168

t168 from ECM shows milder air sweeping across a lot of Europe

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z does indeed show a mild surge northwards from early next week but this is the same ecm which showed a cold surge south on the 00z so I would be cautious about a nationwide warm up as there are conflicting signals although from early april i wouldn't mind some warmer temps since the sun is getting a lot stronger and higher now.???..I've been fighting for coldies since November but at this time of year onwards I will just go with the flow even if that flow is southwesterly, no point fighting against the changing seasons!

Edited March 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM mean shows milder air moving up from the south though its progress north may stop around Humberside

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by Summer Sun