Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Mike Poole]

41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's the dilemma, illustrated by the ICON 18z, so early as T36, it's all about where the low pressure goes:

But waiting in the wings is a big blue and purple fish with -12s where it's eyes should be - will it swim in, more runs needed:

This is probably the last in my series of posts seeing things in the model output  varying from beasts, feet, pac-man's, snakes, now fish, during this FANTASTIC period of model watching over the last two months.  Roll on the summer!

Only joking, all hands on deck, giant jellyfish alert:

[Tim Bland]

Good to have you back Mike. We need a few posters to prevent it being the Summer Sun thread!

A swing back to a cold outlook continues on the 18z Icon & GfS not forgetting the almighty FIM... the fat lady may have cleared her throat but she isn’t sung yet! 

[Scorcher]

36 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Good to have you back Mike. We need a few posters to prevent it being the Summer Sun thread!

A swing back to a cold outlook continues on the 18z Icon & GfS not forgetting the almighty FIM... the fat lady may have cleared her throat but she isn’t sung yet! 

A swing back to a cold outlook?? This looks like a massive swing the other way for Easter Monday for England on the GFS 18Z. Granted Scotland is still cold, but I think the tide is turning towards something more springlike in the next couple of weeks.

This run also shows much milder air getting into the south as early as Sunday afternoon- this is a huge turnaround from what was showing a couple of days ago.

Edited March 26, 2018 by Scorcher

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Updated Euro 4. Tasty evap cooling 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS 00Z doesn't even get the - 5 line over the south of the UK. How can we have such massive variation so close to the actually event... 

[Chesil View]

Ukmo trying to ride to the Coldies rescue this morning. Minus 8's. Uppers over a large portion of the uk on Easter Sunday.

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Ukmo trying to ride to the Coldies rescue this morning. Minus 8's. Uppers over a large portion of the uk on Easter Sunday.

Yep very cold bhol weekend from the UKMO- possible snow event heading in from the west at 144

GEM very cold...

[Frosty.]

I agree with steve, the ukmo 00z shows winter returning, synoptically great with arctic air drawn south with snow showers to the north and a risk of snow from the west / southwest as the atlantic system bumps into the cold pool across the uk..by early april standards it's Epic!❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄

Edited March 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

We are now just 5 days from Easter Sunday and it still isn't sorted between the main 3

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z is sensational, shows easterly winds returning next week across the south with high pressure to the north and  bitterly cold nights for the time of year, especially for scotland with minus 10 / 11c on some nights with severe frosts! 

Ps..the Ecm 00z shows winter returning to the north (scotland) and then gradually spreading south through next week with an increasing risk of snow!!❄❄❄❄

Edited March 27, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 00z shows temperatures rising quite nicely as we move into April we even hit the magical 20c

[Summer Sun]

The ECM and GFS mean has a similar idea into early April that pressure slowly begins to rise over mainland Europe the only real difference is how far north the 1015 line get's.

ECM is a bit further south which keeps the air cooler but not desperately cold

GFS gets it a bit further north which enables some slightly milder air to filter northwards towards the UK

[frosty ground]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS 00z shows temperatures rising quite nicely as we move into April we even hit the magical 20c

Well after all these posts about the weather turning good you've actually found a run of charts that back it up, shame it's 10 days away becasue it looks rather pleasant.

[mb018538]

It's not even an outlier either, there are quite a few mild runs appearing. Plenty of scatter still, but let's hope we can finally see the back of the chilly weather now. It's almost April, time to turn the heat up a few notches please.

[Derecho]

00z swingometers

A notable shift to less cold conditions for the bank holiday weekend if the GFS is to be believed. Consensus is growing on a notable warm spell for the time of year across central Europe.

 Low pressure is likely to hang around the South coast now on saturday, cold limited to far northern areas if this is correct

Looking into April, the emphasis on northern blocking is quickly diminishing. Quite a few mild runs in there with a couple bringing some quite warm uppers from the south.

 Some of those orange runs are superb, a few of the anticyclonic ones are also very good.

However quite a few cyclonic runs also. The first spell of warmer uppers looks likely around April 3rd, however low pressure is never far away. Lets hope the pattern backs west so the warm air can head straight over us instead! Rather then being focused just on Central Europe.

[Purga]

Not so fast! A cold forecast for sure in the reliable timeframes for all of Europe bar the south

Trend forecast is particularly cold for the UK

And for the 10 day period to boot...

All of which squares nicely with UKMET thinking.

Hopefully some more wintry fun for us to come before hibernation calls...

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by Purga

[stodge]

Morning all

Plenty of output to consider again yesterday and far from clear that even this weekend let alone into next week has been resolved as the colder and warmer air masses continue to do battle close to the British Isles.

This morning's medium range report takes us to Friday April 6th and starts as always with the ECM 00Z OP for that time:

If you want a definition of a messy chart, there it is but in fact less complex than it might appear. There were a number of signals yesterday for height rises to the north and west after Easter from the GEFS 00Z and indeed the ECM 12Z OP and while this is less dramatic than the latter, the path looks clear with heights to the north and west as the Azores HP tries to build NNE to the west of the British Isles while LP is over western Europe and the Baltic. Some cold uppers (widely below -4 and indeed below -8 for much of the north and the east of the British Isles) but generally quiet weather so apart from the odd shower in the south and east, dry but frosts at night.

GEM 00Z OP at the same time:

Not a million miles away from today's ECM and similar to its own 00Z from yesterday. Between LP over Iberia and Western Europe and a ridge from the Azores through northern Britain to Scandinavia, an E'ly air flow covers southern Britain with much lighter winds further north. Rain or showers are confined to southern areas and it's not warm with -8 uppers across southern parts so could there be some wintriness over the Pennines and the Wolds ?

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

GFS went its own way and was very much the mildies' friend yesterday and while it's watered that down a little in the OP this morning, there's a clear difference with GEM/ECM. The Azores HP has edged into western Europe and with signs of heights to the NE it's a fairly benign outlook with dry weather for many and light winds. As is often the case, however, the far NW remains close enough to Atlantic systems to enjoy less settled conditions with periodic rain or drizzle.

Further into FI the Azores HP migrates into Scandinavia and becomes the dominant feature pulling in increasingly mild SE'ly winds across the British Isles so a spring-like outlook.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

Mild SW'lies cover the British Isles between LP to the west and developing heights over Scandinavia. Mainly dry in the east and perhaps a little rain in the west and north west. Further into FI the Atlantic remains dominant despite attempts to build heights into Scandinavia.

The GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

I think the only trend I see here is building heights from the south otherwise it's a mixed bag with plenty of cold and cyclonic options as you'd expect at this time. Moving to the fringes of FI and the signal to raise heights remains strong - some take the HP to the north but most keep it in a favourable position to bring warmer air over the British Isles.

In summary, a clear divergence between the GFS and GEM/ECM. The former looks after Easter to bring heights up from the south and turn out weather increasingly milder if not warmer and drier with SW'ly winds in charge. The latter keep a colder outlook with height rises over Scandinavia keeping a more wintry pattern going. Hard to know where this will go but all models seem to suggest the immediate spell of cyclonic conditions over the British Isles won't continue and heights will develop but where and to what orientation is far from resolved. GFS often sniffs out a trend before other models and IF it keeps that trend consistently into hi-res it's worth noting so while the stand-off continues this morning the GFS solution for an improving post-Easter scenario continues to gain credence but it's all a long way off.

[Summer Sun]

Great to see the GFS ens getting the mean, op and control above average as we go into April

Hope this trend continues

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Not so fast! A cold forecast for sure in the reliable timeframes for all of Europe bar the south

Trend forecast is particularly cold for the UK

And for the 10 day period to boot...

All of which squares nicely with UKMET thinking.

Hopefully some more wintry fun for us to come before hibernation calls...

 

Cornwall just had to miss out :O 

[Summer Sun]

Quite a change around t192 from GFS

06z                                                                  00z

Will await the ens to see what support it might have

[Leon1]

oooooh

[Summer Sun]

UKMO and ECM at t168 UKMO has the low a bit further south than ECM which in turn means less precipitation for the UK

[Frosty.]

Who said it's getting warmer?..not the Gfs 6z!..let it snow❄❄❄❄❄❄

[Summer Sun]

GFS ens and Op at t192 unsurprisingly the mean hasn't followed the Op

Op

ens

[Summer Sun]

7-day temperature trend shows the cold air slowly losing its grip on the UK with some parts from around Yorkshire south getting a bit above average still a bit below average in the north but not as cold as previous

Edited March 27, 2018 by Summer Sun