Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Mike Poole]

This string of low pressures stretching from WNW to ESE of the British isles for next week seems to be really causing the models some problems, particularly relating to the relative intensity of each of them.  

ICON 12z has sub -4 uppers over most of the country at T84:

But the situation with the aforementioned lows just looks very messy:

Wet for many in the midlands, but with some snowy surprises thrown in, maybe.  Still don't think this is nailed down for the Easter weekend.  Looks like either cold or wet or both for most the form horse, but other options on the table too.  Let's see what the other models have to say this evening.

Edited March 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

12z ICON is pushing the coldest air north again, as a result, the -6 and -4 lines are also further north

12z

06z

Edited March 25, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

ICON shows a band of precipitation moving north during Saturday then stalling for a time around northern England before going back south during Easter day and gradually weakening

 

Edited March 25, 2018 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

The Easter period continues to look a struggle to the nwp.  As I commented earlier, the Asian pv is pushing at least a chunk and possibly more sw in week 2. This has looked like heading to our west but the 12z icon shows it correcting east and we should now be watching to see if this becomes a trend. 

[Mike Poole]

Looking at tonight's output I think there's a tendency to show this flabby amoeba shaped low further south.  Here at T120, the GFS, GEM, UKMO

The air not necessarily cold enough for snow, particularly further south (UKMO uppers at same time)

Interesting nonetheless.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO has -4 850's over just about all of the UK during Wednesday as we move through towards Easter they gradually move north by the Saturday over Easter the -4 line is around southern Scotland. Northern Scotland is always that bit closer to the coldest air with the -6 line never far away

Edited March 25, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Mike Poole]

Jeststream well south.  GFS at T 192:

Leaving an area north of this, for low pressures,  kinks, shortwaves etc. to just mill about like a pub full of blokes at close to last orders.  What chance the models?  Messy set up, vomit to follow!

Edited March 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Derecho]

12z swingometer update.

- Chances of more widespread cold during the early part of the easter weekend appear to be diminishing further.
- Though it still looks cold especially further north. The later part of the bank holiday looks quite interesting.
- No trend emerging in early April yet, a few milder SW'lies in there.

[Summer Sun]

JMA still keeps bringing some colder air in for Easter

It is consistent if nothing else...

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM at T192:

A complete dog's dinner of a situation for miles around the British isles due to a very southerly jet stream, with no meaningful heights to the north, all very wibbly-wobbly, but a possible atlantic ridge on this run.  Many solutions from the models, it's still difficult to see what the Easter holiday might bring.  Probably not an anticyclone though, it is a bank holiday after all.

[Summer Sun]

Just after Easter at t216 and ECM brings some cold air south

Edited March 25, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends with that colder air further south

Need to wait for the ens run later to see what if any support the colder end has

[SMU]

First Spanish Plume of the year- Sadly not heading this way.....   Yet..

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

First Spanish Plume of the year- Sadly not heading this way.....   Yet..

Steve, that doesn't even go through Spain, let alone us!

Edited March 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Steve, that doesn't even go through Spain, let alone us!

It's taking the scenic route, should arrive in the uk in may!

Nice to see deeper cold pushing south later on the Ecm 12z, early april snow if it does.

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Steve, that doesn't even go through Spain, let alone us!

its the thought that counts !!!!

[stodge]

Evening all

As others have said, a very messy and confused picture into the early part of next week or the latter part of Easter if you prefer. Plenty of cold air on the ECM 12Z OP at T+240:

As has been said before, the transition from winter to spring often involves battles between sharply contrasting air masses as warmer air from the south tries to build north against the entrenched cold or very cold air. In the end, there will be only one winner and in an Atlantic-dominated environment, the battle is often quickly won but this year, with everything else that has happened, the cold is putting up a much stronger fight.

Looking at the GEFS 12Z at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=240

To this observer, the colder members still rule the roost at this time though signs of the GFS wanting to bring in warmer air further into April so perhaps another cold-ish fortnight before we see the genuinely warmer uppers getting in.

[Mike Poole]

19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

its the thought that counts !!!!

Steve, you hide  your love for summer under a snow shovel, no actually I mean bushel (I checked the meaning of the word).  Roll on the plumes!

Edited March 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM ends with that colder air further south

Need to wait for the ens run later to see what if any support the colder end has

Saved from a few days ago fits well, arctic air likely to threaten and push south do not expect anything spring-like in the first week of April I’d say.

a

[damianslaw]

A cyclonic chilly outlook for the foreseeable with a marked temp profile setting up between cold to the north and east and milder conditions to the south and west, with the UK sat in the middle. Scotland and the far north of England will see colder conditions next week, with snow on higher ground at times, possibly falling to quite low levels from mid week onwards as we see the colder air undercutting the trough, further south you go, nearer average temps, but wet at times, and everywhere will see quite a nagging chilly wind, especially in the east. A disappointing run in to easter, especially for anyone who is spending a break in the UK hoping for some welcome dry sunny pleasant conditions.

Longer term - no obvious sign of a warm up anytime soon, indeed signs of a northerly blast once we go into the first week of April proper, as the trough drops SW and heights build down from the NW. April is the most fickle of our months, the most likely to deliver cold northerly blasts as well.. the atlantic struggles to gain the upper hand from now on until June.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM 12z mean keeps the coldest air further north unlike the Op into early April

Op

ens

[phil nw.]

The ens outputs on both ecm and gfs runs indicate an ongoing nw European trough with any warmth from sub-tropical ridging still very much held at bay with perhaps only se Europe seeing anything like that in the next week or two.Much of northern and western Europe still looking below average at this stage.

The mean NH charts showing the day 10 500hPa pattern suggesting the general outlook remaining on the cold side and unsettled with the UK continuing to be influenced by slow moving lows.

These being ejected from the Canadian/Greenland vortex and being steered se into the base of the trough which seems to locate around the Biscay/sw approaches locale for much of the coming week or so.

The jet diving towards Iberia so the UK being, on the polar side of the boundary, seeing a delay in any real Spring warm up whilst we await our first visit from the Azores ridge.

 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

the atlantic struggles to gain the upper hand from now on until June.

With the exception of May which seems to have no problem bringing in the Atlantic in many years. 2015, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2003, 2002... come to mind.

[damianslaw]

36 minutes ago, MP-R said:

With the exception of May which seems to have no problem bringing in the Atlantic in many years. 2015, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2003, 2002... come to mind.

Granted recent May's have been atlantic dominated, however, statistically the atlantic is at its quietest now until June, or should I say most sluggish, northerlies and easterlies are most likely to occur from now until June. The jetstream often does odd things as well, elongating, getting stuck in long ruts, but then suddenly flipping, northerlies followed by southerlies and vice versa - it marks the start of the more interesting time of year for synoptics that divert from the normal westerly zonal pattern, long fetch SW airstreams are least likely now (from a personal perspective thank goodness - they are horrid in the Lake District and often ruin a summer..).

[bluearmy]

The extended eps are sniffing less cold end week 2 so perhaps fi gfs is barking up the right tree as it sometimes  does when change is afoot.