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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

Netweather GFS Image12z                        Netweather GFS Image18z                 so far an area of LP is further north above scotland instead of south of iceland

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Quite a change with the behaviour of the low pressure midweek on the 18z, much more trough disruption it appears...

image.thumb.png.7e283141d618e32fb2e927abfccf6fc7.pngGFSOPEU12_78_2.png

EDIT: beat me to it Leon :rofl:

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
23 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Quite a change with the behaviour of the low pressure midweek on the 18z, much more trough disruption it appears...

image.thumb.png.7e283141d618e32fb2e927abfccf6fc7.pngGFSOPEU12_78_2.png

EDIT: beat me to it Leon :rofl:

Seems things are ‘correcting’ south a trend you want to build if you want winters last hoorah. I’d be quietly confident of winter returning in Scotland. For many it will be more wet on chilly side than white..

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

I'm far from convinced next weekend is anywhere near resolved. Those "hoping" the LP will sink to the SW and allow a feed of warmer south or southeasterly air many be disappointed by the 18Z GFS OP which keeps the LP much closer to the British Isles:

gfs-0-156.png?18

In some ways it's the half way house between the very cold NE'ly flow and the warmer S or SE'ly flow. The only problem with the compromise is it's likely to be a wet outcome for many. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image  

Big differences between the 12z and 18z tonight, hopefully the start of a downward temperature trend for Easter!:yahoo: Won't call it a done deal at all yet though - expect loads of changes by this time tomorrow probably.

Edited by Leon1
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Seems things are ‘correcting’ south a trend you want to build if you want winters last hoorah. I’d be quietly confident of winter returning in Scotland. For many it will be more wet on chilly side than white..

Yes the trough disruption on the 18z is far greater. Somehow I don't feel as though this is quite settled yet.

I don't expect a 'beast' but colder air returning on Thursday/Friday is a distinct possibility. The ICON looks colder also...

Furthermore there was a couple of runs on the GFS 12z ensembles that looked cold towards the end of the week, something which was not seen on the 06z ens.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's such a complex set-up next week, it could be wintry just for scotland or it could be wintry much further south too..FI begins much earlier than it would normally in my opinion!..interesting times:):cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

Just when you think the GFS 12z couldn't be any worse, the 18z finishes even warmer. :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Just when you think the GFS 12z couldn't be any worse, the 18z finishes even warmer. :nonono:

Low res kicks in warm easterly maybe a bit of an inversion set up as continent will not be warm you would want something from the southeast. 

19D9099A-6C1C-40E8-A537-AADEAA6FF61C.thumb.png.3e6b5cbebea6a92f926be867af490403.png2BBCE930-07D6-47E4-8ABC-A711F86167D9.thumb.png.b619748fda035e227ed3a3e55f3011ac.png

SE Europe is looking toasty into April! 90F potential.

DFF90173-0FB5-4BC7-86DD-C9E1CE6237C5.thumb.png.95b9647a3f01d35af6c6fae05725ae25.png

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
Just now, Daniel* said:

Low res kicks in warm easterly maybe a bit of an inversion set up as continent will not be warm you would want something from the southeast. 

19D9099A-6C1C-40E8-A537-AADEAA6FF61C.thumb.png.3e6b5cbebea6a92f926be867af490403.png2BBCE930-07D6-47E4-8ABC-A711F86167D9.thumb.png.b619748fda035e227ed3a3e55f3011ac.png

SE Europe is looking toasty into April! 90F potential.

DFF90173-0FB5-4BC7-86DD-C9E1CE6237C5.thumb.png.95b9647a3f01d35af6c6fae05725ae25.png

They're welcome to it.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSP02EU18_114_2.png

P2 hahaha. Most are similar to the OP at to T120, if not a bit colder.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Swingometers:
image.thumb.png.90a3282d7bd3ffeb374710f8fa76be20.png GFSP10EU18_156_1.png

image.thumb.png.d943236456f8ed4d1757ad59f2396901.png GFSP18EU18_354_1.png


- Easter weekend still largely cyclonic but on the chilly side
- Some more colder runs in there
- No real consensus emerging after early April yet, coolish westerlies perhaps a slight signal for

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

this upcoming pattern would probably be on the right six weeks ago. as it is, those with height in Wales and even the sw (plus midlands north - as you get towards the border, low ground comes into play) will see snowfall. I remember posting several weeks ago that if we could lose the progged se euro heights then we could see a snowy patten develop. As it was, beast 2 popped up with that small upper ridge meeting something bigger dropping in from the pole. I can’t recall what verified re those se euro heights. We look to be in the same place again but this time the polar ridging is towards Greenland rather than n scandi.  the weak neg nao is a little west based and the upper trough doesn’t quite get far enough south and east. Those se euro heights look to be on a mission to back slowly wnw over time and imo that’s what’s scuppers  a pretty wintry hemispheric profile wrt to nw Europe. Maybe it’s related to the change in  seasonal wavelengths as we pass the equinox. 

So a chilly spell coming up and some snowy surprises can’t be ruled out. Those wanting a final ‘fix’ will likely be able to visit their local high ground (prob not se uk). Thereafter a chance that a short neg AO phase could throw a chunk of vortex  into the Atlantic sector and whilst that seems likely to be to our west, things can still correct east on that. So model watching not quite yet stood down for winter and with it now almost being April, all eyes on those se euro heights to see if they can bring w and nw Europe into the developing se European spring. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at UKMO for the few days before and start of Easter and the air doesn't look overly cold if the 850's below were to happen I'd expect the south to make it into low double figures with higher single figures for northern England and mid to lower single figures in Scotland

UW72-7.thumb.GIF.a96cf3a2ad3fed9a77b27badcbd2f274.GIFUW96-7.thumb.GIF.d20693197d308467d4ffb979ae35f7c5.GIF

UW120-7.thumb.GIF.5947eb75f25cd68e4ee5817c24829f1b.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.a5335d0650f2ea507d4939eeb225dcf0.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ECM1-120.GIF?25-12   ECM1-144.GIF?25-12   ECM1-168.GIF?25-12   ECM1-192.GIF?25-12

You only need to look at the model output to see that this is going to be a bank holiday weekend...... :rofl:

The general consensus appears to be a very unsettled weekend with showers or longer spells of rain. The only question appears to be how low the snow level will be and if it reaches sea level then how far south this boundary gets. The north could be quite wintry for most of the weekend, the south looks pretty grotty though.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

At least you don't have to travel far if you want to get away from the never-ending cold we've been suffering from- into the weekend and next week there are some really exceptionally hot temperatures for the beginning of April getting into E and SE Europe.

Just shows that there is light at the end of the tunnel if you're desperate for something warmer. Now we're past the equinox there could be a very quick switch to something much warmer. There was quite a quick turnaround in April 2013 around mid-month.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

00z   Netweather GFS Image           06z            Netweather GFS Image              -5 at hPa is pushing much further south on Easter Sunday                                            

  

 

00z Netweather GFS Image        06z    Netweather GFS Image                          also whole country in easterly flow now

Edited by Leon1
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

00z   Netweather GFS Image           06z            Netweather GFS Image              -5 at hPa is pushing much further south on Easter Sunday                                            

  

 

00z Netweather GFS Image        06z    Netweather GFS Image                          also whole country in easterly flow now

Indeed, a very nice trend from the 6z gfs which is also joined by the ICON 6z . Hopefully, this will continue with the afternoon models.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

06z ICON has -8 850's back further into Scotland

icon-1-120.thumb.png.2dc4bee02dd135b7d06599b3ef256d11.png

Some snow for Easter looks a fairly good bet for Scotland more uncertain for England you'll need a big push south of the cold for low-level snow given the time of year

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at UKMO for the few days before and start of Easter and the air doesn't look overly cold if the 850's below were to happen I'd expect the south to make it into low double figures with higher single figures for northern England and mid to lower single figures in Scotland

UW72-7.thumb.GIF.a96cf3a2ad3fed9a77b27badcbd2f274.GIFUW96-7.thumb.GIF.d20693197d308467d4ffb979ae35f7c5.GIF

UW120-7.thumb.GIF.5947eb75f25cd68e4ee5817c24829f1b.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.a5335d0650f2ea507d4939eeb225dcf0.GIF

Yes, not overly cold but v wet for most. It’s either average and wet or cold and white for Easter. Struggling to see you optimism for the average temps other than to gloat at the coldies in here? 

9EA50D67-BA6B-46C2-8BFB-9D2996210DA6.gif

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all :)

More interesting output today but the trend away from a warmer spell over Easter has continued. It looks increasingly cyclonic with LP not to the SW but much closer to the British Isles. 

GEM 00Z OP suggests a chilly Bank Holiday Monday for all:

gem-1-204.png?00

Interesting to see signs of the first African "plume" of the year further into FI. One or two GFS Members on the 00Z had it coming into central Europe and producing a huge temperature contrast so storms for some you'd think. The problem is as the plume heads to Eastern Europe the cold air drops behind it to north-west Europe.

Signs in far FI of attempted pressure rises in our vicinity either from Scandinavia or the Azores. This is, in fairness, a signal we've seen for a few runs from GFS so there may be light at the end of the tunnel but not, I fear, for the Easter Weekend. 

I don't see snow for the majority but for those on high ground and especially in Scotland and even on lower ground in the north (though of a more transient nature) lying snow remains a distinct possibility.

GFS 06Z Control in far FI:

gens-0-1-336.png

More northern blocking but at least it might be drier.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

06z swingometer updates

image.thumb.png.6cd5a18408abf622fe12d013afdac7d6.pngGFSP03EU06_150_1.png
image.thumb.png.210aa8ff2f5a010867bf4f3871da670c.pngGFSP10EU06_318_1.png

- The seperation of the low in the middle of this week is causing some headaches. Some members still want to put us back in some colder air towards the end of the week
- Bank holiday weekend still looks like a chilly cyclonic one for most. Milder in the south cold in the north of the UK..
- However more ensemble members are positioning the centre a bit further away from the UK which could mean less rainfall
- No trends appearing from the ensemble members further into April just yet, a slight indication of cool westerlies or something more anticyclonic.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Yes, not overly cold but v wet for most. It’s either average and wet or cold and white for Easter. Struggling to see you optimism for the average temps other than to gloat at the coldies in here? 

9EA50D67-BA6B-46C2-8BFB-9D2996210DA6.gif

Indeed temperatures are depressed and it looks very wet..... no snow but who cares its the end of march surley Summer sun should be highlighting what he wants rather than enjoying the fact a few poster are not seeing what they want.

No  warm weather which is a bit rubbish if you ask me

Edited by frosty ground
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