Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
Other options:
Model moans, ramps and banter
Regional discussions

For more focused short-range model discussion:
Short-range Model Discussion

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

I think the last thing most in here would want is chasing a cold snap that delivers cold rain or transient slush, which unfortunately is usually the case as we head into early April. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Lovely pleasant end to GFS 12z

h850t850eu.thumb.png.454976067c6747db98f62ee9f2719f3c.pngh850t850eu1.thumb.png.3a951e89178ca6183ebdb19b8482dc77.pngh850t850eu2.thumb.png.4b9cbd7a7c6ad62d25dbb7c04358dc5a.pngh850t850eu3.thumb.png.efa7fb2cda5ac48f473c814aacbb73a7.png

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.f90e6721a152e05e938a574277fc0328.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.541b6d3c2b638ca042a4d5f770fb388b.pngukmaxtemp2.thumb.png.9aa7453315e9bc66d0c0ee7861d5b0be.pngukmaxtemp3.thumb.png.def5e67c6d68236f228a7f17cea15361.png

It is only 13 day's away from starting what could possibly go wrong  :rofl:

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

HA HA, just when you thought it was all over, the GEFS at 192 say game on (possibly) again.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Lovely pleasant end to GFS 12z

h850t850eu.thumb.png.454976067c6747db98f62ee9f2719f3c.pngh850t850eu1.thumb.png.3a951e89178ca6183ebdb19b8482dc77.pngh850t850eu2.thumb.png.4b9cbd7a7c6ad62d25dbb7c04358dc5a.pngh850t850eu3.thumb.png.efa7fb2cda5ac48f473c814aacbb73a7.png

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.f90e6721a152e05e938a574277fc0328.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.541b6d3c2b638ca042a4d5f770fb388b.pngukmaxtemp2.thumb.png.9aa7453315e9bc66d0c0ee7861d5b0be.pngukmaxtemp3.thumb.png.def5e67c6d68236f228a7f17cea15361.png

It is only 13 day's away from starting what could possibly go wrong  :rofl:

hopefully everything. doesn't have to be brassic but 3-5 c above average is a no-no

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HA HA, just when you thought it was all over, the GEFS at 192 say game on (possibly) again.

best not look at the end of the run, then...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Lovely pleasant end to GFS 12z

h850t850eu.thumb.png.454976067c6747db98f62ee9f2719f3c.pngh850t850eu1.thumb.png.3a951e89178ca6183ebdb19b8482dc77.pngh850t850eu2.thumb.png.4b9cbd7a7c6ad62d25dbb7c04358dc5a.pngh850t850eu3.thumb.png.efa7fb2cda5ac48f473c814aacbb73a7.png

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.f90e6721a152e05e938a574277fc0328.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.541b6d3c2b638ca042a4d5f770fb388b.pngukmaxtemp2.thumb.png.9aa7453315e9bc66d0c0ee7861d5b0be.pngukmaxtemp3.thumb.png.def5e67c6d68236f228a7f17cea15361.png

It is only 13 day's away from starting what could possibly go wrong  :rofl:

That would be lovely . Hope it verifies lol . Might get the oil out haha

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Nice to see higher pressure building up from the south on the GFS ens as we move into early April

gens-21-1-312.thumb.png.e79df079000e158e59107273fe39ea71.pnggens-21-1-336.thumb.png.6c6fa469496f36f60b8613b9ad52372c.pnggens-21-1-360.thumb.png.addd3edc2bbd5cb4cfac9b38df1d87dd.pnggens-21-1-384.thumb.png.8b912edd27a53195120c8c4cf11bb2c2.png

:)

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

12z ensemble swingometer update:

image.thumb.png.e229a75784e5b5a87b2cec5aac163d66.png Have done daily snapshots as it is easier

A shift towards a more cyclonic easter that is on the chilly side. Ensemble members are more frequently directing the low close to the UK rather then to the SW. On many runs the cold air follows behind in its wake when it moves east.

The chances of a cold easterly are small however I'd say there are 3 ensemble members similar to the 06z ICON. If the high to the north in midweek behaves a bit differently then things may start to look very different. However as mentioned the chances of pulling in some of the colder air from the east are diminishing it seems.

Looking ahead into April we start of with a northerly on many ensemble members and then westerlies start to dominate. This snapshot is out to April 7th and shows either cool westerlies or milder SW'lies are a more likely option. The OP has a bit of support but this is still far out.

image.thumb.png.b850cddafe34e25e4dd02fbc861120ec.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Get in!

ECH1-96_rja1.GIF

Still alive by the skin of our teeth, thought it would have been further North.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Thursday 12z yesterday ECM had -8 850's right down to the SE corner 12z today they are over Scotland with -6's making it down to the Northwest

Today

ECM0-120.thumb.GIF.1023722e6f5559ff71f75d77c9b68b62.GIF

Yesterday

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.c841fe715a573346bcfe7239cff312ae.GIF

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Good Friday 24hr comparison shows today run has less cold air further north - Scotland is the place to be for Easter snow at the moment

Today

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.aecabec8de1ca40371c7ef62cdbcf03d.GIF

Yesterday

ECM0-168.thumb.GIF.6b639e1a117baff7025fd48f6b458efd.GIF

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good Friday 24hr comparison shows today run has less cold air further north - Scotland is the place to be for Easter snow at the moment

Today

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.aecabec8de1ca40371c7ef62cdbcf03d.GIF

Yesterday

ECM0-168.thumb.GIF.6b639e1a117baff7025fd48f6b458efd.GIF

Indeed, scotland, especially the northern half sees winter returning on the Ecm 12z with the far north / northern isles in the sweet spot!:laugh::cold:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Easter day sees the far north of Scotland clinging onto the coldest air elsewhere the 850's range from -1 to -4

ECU0-192.GIF.thumb.png.6ce494865b1b3f67c09c00f9bedcb7f9.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Easter Monday sees the coldest air moving a bit further south through Scotland at the same time +2 850's move up into the southern half of England and Wales

ECU0-216.GIF.thumb.png.72b400839c5b3078d55488276ebe8825.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Could be an early BBQ across the south later in the Easter holiday weekend between the April showers whereas scotland, especially the north stays locked in winter!:D

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Looking at Day 4 on the ecm and we can see the convergence zone of the 2 air masses across the borders.

This model shows the boundary further south than the UKMO/GFS at this stage.

ECM4-96.GIF?24-0 ECM0-96.GIF?24-0

North of the border in the easterly flow sourced from the Scandinavian cold pool.Wintry prospects remain up there on this run with snow more likely  in the north.

Looking further out generally the 3 models are all closing in on the placement of a main low showing to our south west at the end of the week so looking like an unsettled weekend and none too warm unfortunately.

Beyond that well of course differences show up but at this stage a north/south ddivide in temperatures continue to look likely with the jet meandering around our latitude.

 

Edited by phil nw.
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A continued climb down from the ECM which has continued to downgrade snow prospects for most of the UK.

At the same though there’s less emphasis on milder air moving nw into the UK later on.

Cold air remains close throughout to the north so there could be some marked differences across the UK.

Very hard to see some last minute changes to advect that deeper cold air to the ne right into the UK.

The issues start quite early with the shortwave across most models failing to separate properly from the troughing and tracking too far east, the high to the ne is also poorly orientated.

It’s a shame that things haven’t quite fallen into place this time , still a chance for northern coldies though.

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There is pretty good support for the Azores high to ridge NE into the uk by the second week of april on the GEFS 12z mean and to be honest, at this time of year I would be happy to see warmth and sunshine as well as freezing cold and snow, it's the dross inbetween i don't like!..anyway, currently it looks like a return to winter will be reserved for scotland, especially the northern half but who really knows for sure what the models will show tomorrow, could be completely different!:)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Not looking good now for another cold spell. And if we can’t have cold, I’m happy now to wish for warmth! Good to see signs of the Azores high ridging NE into April.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

There must be a half decent cluster which must also be decent in size judging by the 168.

EDH1-168_smy8.GIFEDH0-168_kos6.GIF

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
59 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not looking good now for another cold spell. And if we can’t have cold, I’m happy now to wish for warmth! Good to see signs of the Azores high ridging NE into April.

A while off for now.

Azores high sent packing on ECM a long way from normality there on April 3rd wet rather than white for most. Wintry for Scotland and far north seems likely to me. Still ‘boundary’ can change most likely south..

E0A39150-0E17-4E92-A3B1-881E8191681C.thumb.png.acf86479e8d2c4375a2b02a5044e262c.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows cold air punching further south with associated wintry potential..so, another twist maybe?..perhaps it won't just be scotland seeing snow next week!❄❄❄❄❄❄:cold::)..could be a very interesting week ahead of us!:D

ECMAVGEU12_96_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ICON 18z a bit further south with the -8 850's which brings more of Scotland in the coldest air on Thursday -6 850's stretch down to around the wash

icon-1-120.thumb.png.aec3748f21ad42462dc45d19ceb93b47.png

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...