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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, cold snap said:

 

A very ordinary affair looks likely now.

Not for the north, looks like winter returns according to the Ecm 12z!:D:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Still way to early call anything on this yet.  Yes the models have moved away from the snowier outcomes today but in such a finely poised and complex situation I would expect more changes to come over the next few days

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The ECM T240:

ECM1-240.GIF?23-0

No further comment, situation:  to be continued...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Still way to early call anything on this yet.  Yes the models have moved away from the snowier outcomes today but in such a finely poised and complex situation I would expect more changes to come over the next few days

The general rule of thumb is for models to downgrade cold as it gets closer to the time very rarely do they upgrade. The last one was a very rare sudden change of mind at T120. The last time something similar happened was a failed beast from east which promptly disappeared at T120 from one to another many years ago.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

It seem as the cold has lost it's beast and is now a near normal affair for the north however there's still some time for change but it better hurry up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

For all the coldies in the north (especially scotland) the Ecm 12z shows winter returning next week with snow, ice and frosts..and further south, it's not game over, this is a complex set-up and a few minor tweaks here and there could see a nationwide cold spell later next week including easter!:):cold-emoji:❄❄❄ 

120_thickuk.png

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

192_thickuk.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Today, another set of model runs, another set of changes.

Tomorrow, a different set of model runs, a different set of changes.

Don't need to have a mind that's capable of cracking string theory down to 4 dimensions to realise things are looking far from certain, as usual.   

Image result for chocolate teapot

Edited by Optimus Prime
Added chocolate teapot
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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

wait for the gfs 18z...

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Actually a coming together of the models at T144 with that low west of Ireland.

ECM1-144.GIF?23-0  UW144-21.GIF  gfs-0-144.png  icon-0-144.png  gem-0-144.png

It looks hard for the south to go particularly cold on that, and in fact if that low stalls somewhat then temperatures might be closer to the teens on the south coast by the Easter weekend.

For the north, it would depend on how much cold jumped over the North Sea before the SW low blows up. 

A frontal snow event still quite possible if enough cold gets in ahead of any fronts moving up from the south.

But I don't think we're done with the threat of cold in the south after that. At T216, we have what appears a west-based -NAO, but I've noted over the years how these often drift east as T0 gets closer:

ECM1-216.GIF?23-0  

And with what I've seen from the ensembles recently, I think the first 10 days of April look very vulnerable to a cold northerly blast - and look at all the cold still up there:

ECH0-216.GIF?23-0

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
14 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

With Easter being over a week away i wouldn't dismiss a return of wintry weather somewhere over the UK just yet.

The trough disruption across our latitude for next week means a small movement north or south will shift the boundary of cold and mild and at this stage the northern third at least looks to be still in the game as they say.

The main 3 at t144hrs show agreement is still to be reached.

UW144-7.GIF?23-18ECM0-144.GIF?12gfs-1-144.png?12

If we get a continental draw ahead of any fronts then snow can fall with quite modest uppers.

The cold pool just to our ne is quite impressive this late and I would certainly give it a few days yet as the pattern wouldn't need much adjustment to bring that cold further south.

 

Phil isn't that yesterday's ECM?

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Phil isn't that yesterday's ECM?

Well spotted MWB!

Yes i had several tabs on the go and was comparing previous 12z runs and selected wrong one-edited my post now,thanks.:)

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
40 minutes ago, The PIT said:

The general rule of thumb is for models to downgrade cold as it gets closer to the time very rarely do they upgrade. The last one was a very rare sudden change of mind at T120. The last time something similar happened was a failed beast from east which promptly disappeared at T120 from one to another many years ago.

That’s incorrect.The last two cold spells the models upgraded the cold as it got into the reliable timeframe,maybe the same will happen this time ,when the cold spell gets into the reliable timeframe,which it isn’t yet.

Wouldnt take much of a change in current pattern to bring bitterly cold air over all the U.K.,much to the annoyance of the mild rampers in the forum:gathering:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wouldnt take much of a change in current pattern to bring bitterly cold air over all the U.K.

That's a good point and one I made earlier but I guess it could also go the other way too with the coldest air not even reaching the n / ne at all..not counting any chickens yet (apart from these 5 chickens) while it's still outside the reliable timeframe.. ?????:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Tonight's ECM mean shows the -8 850's struggling to make it to mainland UK

EDM0-144.thumb.GIF.7ab29cadeeaed6e991140efe4145c0dc.GIFEDM0-168.thumb.GIF.8ab08aa7fc152a8eeb433af644279b92.GIF

EDM0-192.thumb.GIF.24924e9187e17f3d32c09e71802b653f.GIFEDM0-216.thumb.GIF.23fcc9f4ac1ee3c47e5c8452fc2cb018.GIF

EDM0-240.thumb.GIF.34209bfb8ffb2af5bb72c4798a0b645a.GIF

Some snow at times in the north but temps always that bit higher in the south

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Certainly a downgrade compared to this morning's Ecm 00z ensemble mean regarding the influx of cold, which was stronger and further south earlier. If this is right it would only be the far north seeing any meaningful cold / snow next week..this coldie isn't throwing the towel in though!:D:cold::help:

ECMAVGEU12_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO and ECM look to be closer to some sort of agreement this evening at t144 & t168

ECM T144                                                       UKMO T144

ecm2.2018032912_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.63493b91ef9acfa15f84863b7a22c44a.pngukm2.2018032912_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.5a40d78b83de0e7ee8aae8d9f191e462.png

ECM T168                                                       UKMO T168

ecm2.2018033012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f7f0d1fdc4bf461fbe1c10019176761d.pngukm2.2018033012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.a4abada7d68056f5864810d04ed919c1.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

fim-0-234.png?12

Fortunately, the ever-reliable FIM rides to the rescue of cold fans as it did in previous cold snaps when some of the so-called "big" models wobbled.

The LP drifts NE and fills leaving the British Isles under an increasingly cold NE'ly flow by Easter Monday.

This may be more an issue of timing than trend - a delay of 24-48 hours as the LP sits to the SW and then shifts NE to align with the main SCEuro trough.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
48 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and ECM look to be closer to some sort of agreement this evening at t144 & t168

ECM T144                                                       UKMO T144

ecm2.2018032912_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.63493b91ef9acfa15f84863b7a22c44a.pngukm2.2018032912_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.5a40d78b83de0e7ee8aae8d9f191e462.png

ECM T168                                                       UKMO T168

ecm2.2018033012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f7f0d1fdc4bf461fbe1c10019176761d.pngukm2.2018033012_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.a4abada7d68056f5864810d04ed919c1.png

 

I wonder if that UKMO would be a heavy snow event for the North as it pushes against colder air, I have to say, just looking at surface pressure alone, you would think those football shaped lows would have too much mild air mixed in, but a few recent model runs where we do get access to PPN type have shown them in fact to be right old dumpings.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Despite some models showing hardly anything cold further south next week..I've just seen a forecast showing cold air winning and a risk of heavy snow across most of southern uk through the second half of next week!..let the games begin!:D:cold:❄❄❄❄❄

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Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Despite some models showing hardly anything cold further south next week..I've just seen a forecast showing cold air winning and a risk of heavy snow across most of southern uk through the second half of next week!..let the games begin!:D:cold:❄❄❄❄❄

Where ?

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