Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Norrance]

6 hours ago, EllyTech said:

1976. The endless Summer and, endless drought!

You are thinking of 1975, a very cold Spring. Spring 1976 was very dry and sunny and May in particular was mild.

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Interesting GFS quite different compared to ICON at T132 with that string of two or three lows (three in this case) that seem to be causing the models some bother:

These look further East, think this might be a colder run.

Problem is the low pressure moving down from near Greenland, it ends up developing more in the SW and keeping the cold away. The UKMO also shows this to a high degree at T144.

ECM looking isolated now. Subtle shifts of more cold in Scandi earlier on in the GFS but not making its way here.

[DIS1970]

Noticed this yesterday or the day before can't remember due to my BT, anyway some warmer air drifting up the east side of that low. so any cold seems less likely now. 

[Derecho]

And now it looks as though the low pressure could get stuck to our SW for a while. High pressure in east Africa allows warm air to move north into Europe. If this corrects further west we may end up with a Scorpion from the South rather then a beast from the east, which is fine by me .

Looks a bit unsettled though, if the ECM backs down this may be the case of the GFS ensemble members spotting this first and the rest following suit. However anything past T96 at the moment is still very uncertain.

[karyo]

Yes, a less cold ICON with the problematic low to the southwest. 

The gfs up to 165 hours is an improvement for the north and it has a nice Atlantic block but sadly the low gets anchored to the southwest so central and southern areas just get rain.

The UKMO has the cold licking the east at 144 hours and like the gfs it has a nice Atlantic block but still with that horrible low to the southwest. 

[Mike Poole]

GEM on the other hand, much colder further south,  T222:

Await the ECM.

Edited March 23, 2018 by Mike Poole

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

And now it looks as though the low pressure could get stuck to our SW for a while. High pressure in east Africa allows warm air to move north into Europe. If this corrects further west we may end up with a Scorpion from the South rather then a beast from the east, which is fine by me .

Looks a bit unsettled though, if the ECM backs down this may be the case of the GFS ensemble members spotting this first and the rest following suit. However anything past T96 at the moment is still very uncertain.

The scorpion has the risk of stinging us with a lot of flooding as the two air masses meet over our country.

Still good snow potential for Scotland though. 

[Summer Sun]

GFS shows a significant warm up for eastern Europe and Russia by Easter Monday with the colder air increasingly confined to NW Europe (UK included)

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z has a happy ending..for coldies!!⛄⛄❄❄

[Chesil View]

As we await the ECM. It is interesting to note that all the outputs are really just small geographical variations (in global terms) on the same theme.Namely a cold air/milder air boundary somewhere across the uk during the easter weekend. Will the low to the southwest blow up as much as the gfs suggests? We now that it has a bias for overblowing areas of low pressure. So lots to ponder. Of course the small variations in global terms make a massive difference as to who gets snow on our small island. Still way too early to call it yet.

 

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the Gem 12z in more detail, really turning wintry across the north / north east during next midweek with rain turning to snow and then the colder air spreading south to the rest of the uk with ppn turning more wintry and frosts / ice becoming more widespread..very cold nationwide early april!

[nick sussex]

It’s ironic that there’s too much amplification which ends up with the jet digging south too far west.

There’s a reluctance to disrupt any energy se and so the inevitable result is that milder air moving nw from the Med.

The are still differences between the outputs re the low set up over the UK but all have that unfavourable jet .

 

[Derecho]

GFS swingometer update

Only 1 member now goes for anything resembling a cold easterly, although quite a few still go for somewhat cold uppers. The low to the SW of the UK is the culprit.

This also has an impact into April with more cyclonic runs appearing during the first week. A few rather warm ones in there too. Some form of northern blocking appears commonly still however although the uppers aren't particularly low so not much to write home about.

[Frosty.]

Just been looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the north (Scotland especially) turns much colder / wintry for the second half of next week and onwards into april, the south is generally less cold but there is a chance of the deeper cold further north flooding south later as these charts show. It's a complex set-up but I would be astonished if the north doesn't see a flip back to winter in the run up to and including easter!..hopefully the cold will return nationwide!❄❄❄❄

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s ironic that there’s too much amplification which ends up with the jet digging south too far west.

There’s a reluctance to disrupt any energy se and so the inevitable result is that milder air moving nw from the Med.

The are still differences between the outputs re the low set up over the UK but all have that unfavourable jet .

 

still not strong agreement on how this plays out - i guess the upcoming ec op will tell us a fair bit re any confidence and where we are re the biscay low. 

Will be back later - the modelling seems to be headed to a place that doesn’t surprise me (in the period up to Easter Sunday). I haven’t been banging the very wintry drum for a few days now - ever since the west based theme began to scream loudly on the spreads and clusters - let’s see if ecm can keep the pattern suppressed enough for the se quarter of the uk to avoid the less cold uppers. That would, in turn, mean a chunk of the country being exposed to an easterly. Not likely given the 12z output thus far. 

[Summer Sun]

ECM still bringing in the coldest air but the 12z is slower than yesterday the further west you are

12z today

12z yesterday

 

Edited March 23, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM could bring quite a bit of marginal snow for some areas, depending where the front sits

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

Cold and snowy for the north, but I still have questions about that low to the SW, it looks odd, I'd like to see more runs.

Edit: and  I am sure I will see more runs! Give it time.

Edited March 23, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM could bring quite a bit of marginal snow for some areas, depending where the front sits

In other words, it's going to rain!

[Summer Sun]

Coldest air going north at t168 aka Good Friday

[DIS1970]

That low is drifting to the sw, just like most of the other models.

[Summer Sun]

GFS & ECM now agreeing on the low to our south-west for Good Friday exactly where is to be resolved 

[Summer Sun]

Coldest air just about gone for the Saturday

[The PIT]

The drift away from cold continues but now on GFS UKMO and ECM. I'm expecting further downgrades unless all the models do what they did with the last cold spell and suddenly change at T120.

[Summer Sun]

24hrs comparison from ECM for the Saturday over Easter

Big downgrade this evening more so Midlands north

Edited March 23, 2018 by Summer Sun