Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[nick sussex]

Almost a stunning run from the ECM for the time of year but just missing some trough disruption around day 7 to day 8.

Its then you want to see energy heading ese to stop the milder air from feeding nw from the Med .

Its still the best of the big 3 but there are marked differences with its handling of the pattern to the nw at just day 4.

[Frosty.]

This mornings Gem 00z showed epic cold, this evening's Ecm 12z shows epic cold..there's already been 2 Epic cold spells this spring so far..why not a hat-trick!game on!

Edited March 22, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

JMA tries to get the coldest air south but stops around Humberside before heading back north into Scotland for Good Friday

 

[bradymk]

Looking at the ECM Signifiant weather charts this evening is quite something.

Snow for many late Tuesday Wednesday, Thursday and Friday next week.

this is almost April, crazy!

[Dr cat]

Could be an outlier

[stodge]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Almost a stunning run from the ECM for the time of year but just missing some trough disruption around day 7 to day 8.

Its then you want to see energy heading ese to stop the milder air from feeding nw from the Med .

Its still the best of the big 3 but there are marked differences with its handling of the pattern to the nw at just day 4.

Indeed, Nick, the problem for southern parts of the British Isles is as the LP sinks to the south-west it inevitably draws up warmer air on its eastern flank before eventually moving NE and phasing with the main trough allowing the very cold air to return from the north and north east.

In order for the NE to set up the LP needs to move through the meridian or sink further into France (sorry) and pull in an easterly which would veer NE'ly.

We've had cold Easters before and this kind of set-up delivers transient snowfall to low ground in the south and of course much more extensive snow cover for the north (for Scotland in particular the ECM 12Z is a seriously cold run).

JMA 12Z shows what could happen:

The LP has sunk too far south and west and the British Isles is getting a warmer feed of SE'ly air. For all the wonderful Atlantic profile, the profile to the east isn't so clever. 

[Purga]

And a nice reload from the north to finish

[nick sussex]

March has been a weird month so far.

Bitter cold right at the start then average for two weeks, then the mini beast and now the chance of more cold .

If there is to be more cold it would be good to see that deliver one last real blast for the UK and not a mediocre affair .

Then I’d like to see a change to warmer weather. 

The evolution to more cold is a lot more complicated than the previous two spells , the ECMs early set up at just T96 hrs gives the UK a much better chance.

Given the timeframes you’d really want to see tonights GFS 18 hrs run moving at least some way towards that , indeed you can see at just T72 hrs differences upstream between the ECM and the GFS/UKMO.

 

 

Edited March 22, 2018 by nick sussex

[Tim Bland]

? 

[mulzy]

ECM Control looks tasty - channel low at days 6-7.  Possibly a foot of snow in the capital (yes that's a ramp!).

[feb1991blizzard]

EPS mean looking splendid at 144 as well.

[Mike Poole]

27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

The evolution to more cold is a lot more complicated than the previous two spells , the ECMs early set up at just T96 hrs gives the UK a much better chance.

Given the timeframes you’d really want to see tonight’s GFS 18 hrs run moving at least some way towards that , indeed you can see at just T72 hrs differences upstream between the ECM and the GFS/UKMO.

 

 

At T96, the ECM ensemble mean is much more aligned to the op than it is to the GFS at the same time:

GFS for comparison:

Interesting to see where this goes.

Looking at the rest of the run, seems like the ensembles broadly supportive of the cold evolution of the ECM op.

Edited March 22, 2018 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

ECM 144 shows that is now odds on a decent cold / very cold spell out to day 10 for the North ( North of say Leeds ) Further south if your searching for cold the the trough needs to sink a la control or operational-

 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 144 shows that is now odds on a decent cold / very cold spell out to day 10 for the North ( North of say Leeds ) Further south if your searching for cold the the trough needs to sink a la control or operational-

 

The North less risky and the far North guaranteed some cold but looking at the spread of solutions, I could make a case for the SW, the South and parts of midlands, and the SE to get huge dumpings. in other words, more risky but potentially some huge rewards on offer.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is better / colder for more of the uk than earlier..for the north it's epic for the time of year and further south it's heading in the right direction. There could be yet another very wintry hurrah next week and the way this spring is going..it may not be the last!❄❄⛄⛄..it's Exciting!

[Man With Beard]

As shown above, the ECM has spells of snow over much of the UK next week. In fact, it follows on from its last two runs well - snow for midlands Tuesday/Wednesday, snow further south Friday.

That would be three separate snow events in the space of one month!!

It's still so close, but as Steve Murr mentioned earlier today, we've seen all of these situations correct west this month as T0 approaches, so plenty to play for. Again!!!

[Matthew.]

37 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

March has been a weird month so far.

Bitter cold right at the start then average for two weeks, then the mini beast and now the chance of more cold .

If there is to be more cold it would be good to see that deliver one last real blast for the UK and not a mediocre affair .

Then I’d like to see a change to warmer weather. 

How dare you say that in here Nick! key differences between Ukmo and ECM at +144. Let’s say the morning runs will be very interesting  

[Chesil View]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The North less risky and the far North guaranteed some cold but looking at the spread of solutions, I could make a case for the SW, the South and parts of midlands, and the SE to get huge dumpings. in other words, more risky but potentially some huge rewards on offer.

Indeed so Feb. Both the beast scenarios in March have been high risk high rewards situations that have corrected themselves from initial doubts to provide the maximum possible snow. So the form horse atm would appear to be for the runs to correct themselves again for maximum impact.

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

How dare you say that in here Nick! key differences between Ukmo and ECM at +144. Let’s say the morning runs will be very interesting  

Has UKMO spotted anything first out to day 5-6 this winter and proved right? I don’t believe so. In fact a few times we were teased and proved wrong and vice versa. 

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Is the crystal ball up for sale? You can never rule something impossible and Tuesday isn’t far off, he could have said the actual outcome most likely nothing of note just merely a lesser option worthy of a watch?

I think we on netweather are more clued-up on what's likely to happen next week, auntie beeb will be playing catch up as usual!!..anyway, latest models, especially the Ecm 12z op / mean scream wintry potential for what would be the third magical cold spell this spring so far!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited March 22, 2018 by Frosty.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I think we on netweather are more clued up on what's going to happen next week, auntie beeb will be playing catch up as usual!!..anyway, latest models, especially the Ecm 12z op / mean scream wintry potential for what would be the third magical cold spell this spring so far!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Agreed even less enthused GFS reflects a wintry picture for the north so it is a certainty some areas will be seeing snow and not restricted to high ground either. Let’s see what the pub one does F.  

[winterof79]

wrong?

[chris55]

Well Ian Fergussan gave a 30% chance Easter would be milder on the radio earlier So I make that 70% probability of the block coming in and feeding us some v cold air yet again. And with the Atlantic knocking on the door some of us could well see more snowfall yet!

He has been mentioning it for a few days now on local radio, never ever a ramp just highlighted the seemingly ever increasing risk.

[Interitus]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

March has been a weird month so far.

Bitter cold right at the start then average for two weeks, then the mini beast and now the chance of more cold .

Interesting that the March provisional CET to the 21st is 4.1°C

The equivalent for 2013 was 3.51°C and for 2006 it was 3.11°C

Not so unusual after all?

This year has had frequent comparison with 1987 - this was 2.9°C

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All....Easter looks cold ,but how cold?  Some very interesting synopyics in the days ahead.......