Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The gefs 12z ensembles are an improvement with the snow row going higher for the Easter period compared to the 0z and 6z runs ?❄️❄️❄️

Edited March 22, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[SMU]

ECM could be weighing in with the big guns here - note the high not sliding now

[Daniel*]

Considerable snow risk there for mid-northern half of England at T+120 a little evocative to December 10th.

Edited March 22, 2018 by Daniel*

[Mike Poole]

ECM looking still on for the third cold outbreak at T144:

ECM on the cold side of the 12s.  More runs needed, but this run looks very good.

Edited March 22, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM could be weighing in with the big guns here - note the high not sliding now

Yes, that 120 chart is either battleground, battleground and then deep freeze, just deep freeze, or battleground short lived, either way I don't see any way that somewhere wouldn't get a dumping out of that.

[ICE COLD]

Thank you very much ECM 12 T144

[SMU]

WOW

Snow clearing the SE - Snow showers following through from the NE - probably trough activity... Bitterly cold.

[mulzy]

ECM significant snow across central areas Tuesday night into Wednesday.

[The PIT]

Fairly good agreement between the GFS and ECM at T120 but the UKMO handling the lows differently. However at T144 GFS goes off at a tangent while the UKMO is closer to the ECM.  So the trend is colder again but uncertain as to how cold with the UKMO and ECM while with the GFS keeping the south of the UK mostly out of things.

[stodge]

Evening all

Dearie me, that GFS 06Z OP was an outlier apparently..

Nobody bothered to tell the ECM 12Z.

[Daniel*]

ECM has been preforming well more likely a greater likelihood it has a better handle on things, it did well from last two beasts. GFS 12Z ensembles have trended colder too - not following ‘downgrades’. 

Edited March 22, 2018 by Daniel*

[ICE COLD]

Lovely jubbly ?

ECM T168

[Mike Poole]

Verging on epic territory at T168:

[SMU]

168- unsettled with snow flurries in many areas 

Could be severe frost in the North to open Good Friday...

[Frosty.]

Thanks Ecm, looks even more wintry than the 00z..great trend ??❄❄⛄⛄

Edited March 22, 2018 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

Some very big differences as early as T96 hrs.

The ECM has a much weaker shortwave which separates from the main trough .

It also holds back the deeper low near Greenland. 

Its key to get the shortwave sufficiently south before the hangback to that other low starts causing issues .

The early timeframe is key to get the cold into the UK before that hangback drama.

Still problems with a lack of trough disruption as low pressure becomes slow moving to the sw of the UK.

Edited March 22, 2018 by nick sussex

[Mike Poole]

T192:

 

I'd fascinated to see what we got from this at this time of year if it verified.

Edited March 22, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z is nothing short of epic for the end of march..it's beautiful!???

Edited March 22, 2018 by Frosty.

[SMU]

168 > 216 over scotland - Record date cold

Lying Snow - Check

Deep upper cold - Check

Stationary Air - Check

Sub -15c anyone?

[phil nw.]

ECM showing the cold spreading south as early as day 5 with easterly winds

                                                             

Atlantic low pressure sliding under the wedge of weak heights to the north.Should create some snowy interest from mid-week as the cold air comes up against the mild further south.Perfect angle of attack on this to get some late cold here.

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

168 > 216 over scotland - Record date cold

Lying Snow - Check

Deep upper cold - Check

Stationary Air - Check

Sub -15c anyone?

Yer very good for Scotland from day 5 all the way . Let's just move it further south and then we can check that off too ?

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

168- unsettled with snow flurries in many areas 

Could be severe frost in the North to open Good Friday...

Thursday morning colder at -15c min over the cairngorm glenns. Parts of the south midlands are -11c over snowfields.....  must be a date record going if  those numbers verified 

[ICE COLD]

NICE. And now from the north at T240 . 

[tight isobar]

'Hold on tight'...

The stakes are on an' upwards trickle- via a notable run and jump into easter!..

A whole array of data to trawl through...

But news making(this time of year weather)...gaining!!!

Data to follow soon !!!!!

[Mike Poole]

Cold coming back south at T240 with a northerly, bonkers!