Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Purga]

Blizzard 1 alert!

Blizzard 2 alert!

South gets buried...

Sleep tight..

[Frosty.]

Early April looking a bit wintry according to tonight's Gfs 18z

[john mac]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Early April looking a bit wintry according to tonight's Gfs 18z

that’s incredible for this time of year

[Allseasons-Si]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My favourite chart from the 18z..the day after April fools day!

I wished it was.....

exeptional charts for this time of the year and when the beast #2 was coming i said lets have one last hurrah!

well the 12z and 18z gfs has re-loads from the east,northeast and north on them right out to FL and has been very consistant on this over the last few days

lets have a look at some data

the 8-14 day cpc from NOAA has been consistant lately on the build of heights to our west,northwest

now onto the De-built dewpoints,i look at this to see if there is a trend in the ens to drop the dewpoints below -5,this morning there was a couple of stragglers dropping to -10,now there is more growing on the latest,the wind direction is a bit all over the place though so i will be keeping a close eye on this over the coming days.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Mean omega block at 312!  That's very strong support for a N'ly.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mean omega block at 312!  That's very strong support for a N'ly.

That is a cracker,my only hunch would be a slightly west based -NAO on that chart,shift it a few hundred miles east,but it is a mean so broabbrushly ok

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

That is a cracker,my only hunch would be a slightly west based -NAO on that chart,shift it a few hundred miles east,but it is a mean so broabbrushly ok

I think that's fine, don't forget at this time of year, we want it trough, to provide longer outbreaks of heavy snow so as to get something down quickly and build on it.

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mean omega block at 312!  That's very strong support for a N'ly.

Strong signal for a mid Atlantic ridge been apparent for a while now. It seems a bit frivolous to be chasing us southerners although this spring has revealed and looks to reveal further why business remains open until further notice.

And I’m a bit baffled @Allseasons-si that does not show a west based NAO looks pretty bang on to me! 

Edited March 21, 2018 by Daniel*

[Derecho]

18z ensembles, with swingometer updated for the last week of March. Key points:

1) We probably won't get a clean beasterly like the last two but some runs (including the OP) show cold air coming over us, with low pressure bumping into colder air potentially giving snowfalls
2) However plenty of ensemble members keep the UK under an area of low pressure meaning we stay less cold.
3) Some just give us a brief shot of colder air before another low pressure system rolls through.

Given the Atlantic is usually very quiet at this time of year, I would back the colder solutions verifying, however there is plenty of support for it to stay away. Is the OP leading the way or are the ensembles picking up on something?

Edited March 21, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Strong signal for a mid Atlantic ridge been apparent for a while now. It seems a bit frivolous to be chasing us southerners although this spring has revealed and looks to reveal further why business remains open until further notice.

And I’m a bit baffled @Allseasons-si that does not show a west based NAO looks pretty bang on to me! 

Ok,just looking at it again and it is 312 hours away and that is a good mean,usually you get the mean to flatten out after 240

so i hold my hands up

Edited March 21, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Strong signal for a mid Atlantic ridge been apparent for a while now. It seems a bit frivolous to be chasing us southerners although this spring has revealed and looks to reveal further why business remains open until further notice.

And I’m a bit baffled @Allseasons-si that does not show a west based NAO looks pretty bang on to me! 

I never agree with the Southern UK argument, Southern UK in any time of year are less likely to get snow than for instance Buxton, and as we are all less likely in late March or April, yes it really limits chances but Sourhern UK has had heavy snow before in April, in other words we are all less  likely to get snow than in late Jan and as the South gets less on average then - in other words its all relative.

[SMU]

Morning

Models still a little uncertain on how this next cold evolution develops - however there is a common theme of troughing to the NE & weakish heights to the North-

Scotland & the NE look best placed if cold & snow is your bag- areas further south & west are a 'maybe' --

GEM the pick of the bunch-

S

[bluearmy]

Very interested to see how far south ec op can get the upper trough day 9. Noticed a trend for it to want to head more east once it gets towards biscay.. will it stall? Quite finely balanced at the moment but as noted above the gefs pretty solid for a T300 chart! 

EDIT: stall as per the west based musings yesterday evening. That’s gaining strength now and with the calendar nudging April, it becomes very tricky if you’re after a last hurrah for proper wintry conditions, especially further south.

perhaps we will await a further amplification which looks like it’s underway by day 10 and clearly has support on the gefs ...... there is a hefty prize still waiting to the ne. 

Edited March 22, 2018 by bluearmy

[ICE COLD]

I'll take this from the ECM . Nice . 

[Man With Beard]

Just for the record - ECM showing snow events on Wednesday further north and Good Friday further south (mainly the south west nicking the snow again).

On a bit of a knife edge - actually wouldn't take much to keep the south on the warmer/wetter side.

[bluearmy]

37 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Just for the record - ECM showing snow events on Wednesday further north and Good Friday further south (mainly the south west nicking the snow again).

On a bit of a knife edge - actually wouldn't take much to keep the south on the warmer/wetter side.

And you really couldn’t completely  rule out a barbecue Monday in e England if that system stalls for a couple of days. It’s that time of year and would be typical if the weather made mugs of the written media by delivering the opposite of what they have predicted. 

[Frosty.]

As steve mentioned, the GEM 00z is the pick of the bunch, it turns cold everywhere and puts scotland in the freezer, there are some extremely cold nights for the time of year with severe frosts..remarkable stuff for the end of march / early april! 

[Summer Sun]

Quite a split over the country just ahead of Easter on this mornings ICON

Whilst the most of the south and southwest sees temps around double figures further north and east temps you struggle to make it much above freezing

[johnholmes]

There are differences on the 500 mb anomaly charts, both with each other and over continuity so I sit on the fence for a day or two!

[feb1991blizzard]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Quite a split over the country just ahead of Easter on this mornings ICON

Whilst the most of the south and southwest sees temps around double figures further north and east temps you struggle to make it much above freezing

And also you know what would be falling from the sky in some parts don't you? and quite heavy as well!

[JamesL]

And the 6z gfs is keen to take us back into deep winter again just a week from now. 

[cheshire snow]

Colder air and snow showers by Wednesday according to the 06GFS

Seems to be a reacurring theme that the 06 runs brings the cold in quicker then the 12z

Delays it by a few days.

C.S

[Purga]

So GFS 06z says "I guess some of you must be fed up getting frozen by a bitter easterly it is April after all - OK change of scene, let's build a solid Greenland High and blast you all with a frigid northerly instead"

LOL - FI extreme but based on recent form I wouldn't bet against it!

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters - looked through the last 3 runs - overall, a great deal of consistency for Easter, which is that the UK will probably be on the colder side of the pattern, but just the chance it may stall SW enough to keep the beast at bay:

   

The chances are that the initial low will then push through but not certain just how much Atlantic amplification will survive for the first week of April - if it survives well, another very cold week beckons, if it keeps flattened somewhat, we may end up with April showers and temperatures only slightly below average.

 

[Purga]

Temps solidly below normal for all of Europe to the end of the month.