Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I must admit BA, that the NAO tells me nothing, nothing that I cannae get from the models themselves, that is...I am lost as to why it gets the amount of attention it does. Am I alone in this...?

In this instance, It’s just a way of saying that there is a look of everything settling a little too far wsw as we get to the 8/10 day period ed. referencing the pattern without having to describe it. not a driver but a reflection of the pattern, an indicator. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I must admit BA, that the NAO tells me nothing, nothing that I cannae get from the models themselves, that is...I am lost as to why it gets the amount of attention it does. Am I alone in this...?

Using the West based -NAO as a descriptive just means that someone is trying to say that the trough is too far West and usually ends up bringing in milder air around the southern flank on SW winds where as if its a regular -NAO, the trough is to the South of the UK so can bring Easterly winds, I agree though  that I would always rather view the synoptic charts with the  heights, surface pressure and uppers as an indicator as to how good a run / suite is re UK cold rather than just viewing A0 / NAO index graphs.

[Frosty.]

Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, the trend through most of next week is colder from the n / ne and continuing unsettled so I would expect ppn to gradually become more wintry with a risk of snow, especially further north and higher ground..my opinion of the  models today is there is a good chance of much colder air to the NE getting mixed in with trough disruption across the UK towards / during Easter!

Edited March 21, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

You might need a trip to Specsavers. Lower runs are around -7c ?!

Nah my eyesight is perfectly fine thank you

Lower for Scotland yes but based on the graph you quoted I stand by what I said

 

[damianslaw]

Whilst we are entering the lighter half of the year, we are also entering the time of year when northerlies and easterlies are at there yearly maxim, roughly late March through until early June, and also the driest period of the year at least in the north and west, again ending in early June (return of the westerlies..).

Models are continuing to show a marked southerly jet, which will enable heights to build robustly to our north, with the trough spinning its way through the UK and digging into central europe, a cold pattern at any time of year, and certainly cold enough for snow on low ground in the north at least in late March.

There is a chance the trough might anchor itself further to the west, pulling in milder southerlies at times, with low pressure coming unstuck to the SW held in place by strong heights to the NW, but my view is northerly/north easterly influence most likely to take hold as we approach easter, resulting in a very wintry March for many.

Easter always bring varied fayre, the earlier it is the more likely it can be plagued by wintry conditions, unfortunately.

[stubbys]

Enjoying reading the input from all of you, keep up the good work ??

[Purga]

Cold blocked scenario until end of May!!

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Nah my eyesight is perfectly fine thank you

Lower for Scotland yes but based on the graph you quoted I stand by what I said

 

That’s the Mean. I was referring to this London graph where you said the lowest ensembles were -5c....look again ...it drops below -5c ...to around -7c. I know you are determined to wind up the coldies but you can’t post a graph and describe what it shows inaccurately ?

 

 

Edited March 21, 2018 by Tim Bland

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z done and dusted but as it only goes out to T120, uncertainty over where it's going.  18z firs t then 12z at same time:

Looks to be pushing the ridge higher, that's good.  T850s on the 18z:

Work in progress.  Onwards the pub run!

[Mike Poole]

I seem to be having a conversation with myself in here, what's wrong with people, don't you sense the Beast#3?  GFS 18z certainly does, here's the pub run at T186:

[feb1991blizzard]

Another cracker from the GFS again, a big snow event for Central and Southern parts with snow dotted around elsewhere as well.

[ICE COLD]

Yep @Mike Poole some places getting buried around the T180 mark ??

[Frosty.]

57 minutes ago, Purga said:

Cold blocked scenario until end of May!!

That's too much even for me, want to see some plumes in may!

Having said that, hoping the 18z is right about next week..turning much colder

 

[bluearmy]

Let’s go from winter straight to plumes Karl - then we won’t have to go to the states for storm chasing! 

[ICE COLD]

Battleground snow event incoming ?

[ICE COLD]

Is this classed as a slider low ??

[ICE COLD]

Again some places getting buried. 

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I seem to be having a conversation with myself in here, what's wrong with people, don't you sense the Beast#3?  GFS 18z certainly does, here's the pub run at T186:

I think its because its a low confidence forecast at the moment, there's a question mark over a lot of things - separation of energy and clean ejection from Southern Greenland and then if, when and how it phases with the troughing to the East, The 18z has for example in the chart I'm showing below, 4 small troughs / shortwaves, all in a line from Canada all the way down to Holland, The energy seems to be digging NW to SE which is a good thing so its not as bad as when they are all over the place between Southern Greenland and Norway, but none the less, its hard to forecast with any confidence the outcome, I think personally we may get a snow event or may not before hand, but eventually we will get a Northerly end week 2, but that's just a punt.

Edited March 21, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Midlands Ice Age]

8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is this classed as a slider low ??

Ice Cold...

Can we have a slider Hurricane instead?

[ICE COLD]

The snow goes on and on . Pub run special ? . There be no Easter egg hunting outside , the eggs would be buried . At least they won't melt ?

[Frosty.]

My favourite chart from the 18z..the day after April fools day!

[ICE COLD]

OMG the the 18z is a coldies heaven it just snows continuously for 4 or 5 days . If only ay ?

[DIS1970]

I'm pretty sure that won't happen come the actual day.

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters show 25% with the upper trough just too far west ...... not an issue as yet though don’t want to see that grow on the 00z suite.

more crazy pub run output with a winter ‘79 redux in week 2! 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Ice Cold...

Can we have a slider Hurricane instead?

Unfortunately not - you would need the SST's to be between 27 and 29c, so even if global warming does continue as predicted by climate scientists, its still going to be a few thousand years before you can get those between Greenland and Scotland in March!