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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

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Well the swing to an easterly continues, do we get another potentially snowy spell, or will low pressure meander around the UK keeping it away? At the moment you have to say an easterly is the favourite yet again!

An easterly is never the favourite QS!

eps extended remain the same theme 

quite interested to see if any clusters are w euro ridgy at all. Is there any hope for gavin ?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Not as severe as last nights run by the looks of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

What an outrageous 6z. FI but its gaining support.

Easter Sunday snowman anyone?

06_276_preciptype.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

The GFS 6z after day 9 for most of England and Scotland  is amazing . Ireland is not so good for cold . 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS 06z is a bit slower in taking the coldest air south during Good Friday than the 00z

06z                                                                   00z

gfs-1-222.thumb.png.fd3debd747348c55f413ba42ee9b558b.pnggfs-1-228.thumb.png.37302d6ff856f6db1b6735a9aafaa0db.png

This results in temps around 5c to 6c higher for some parts Midlands south

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.e445ede30fabf0328a3800250a1f5415.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.09dea792884d7989f12545eeb4bfad76.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

What are the chances of the 12z chart looking like the 06z chart after 300hrs?

Edited by DIS1970
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
Just now, DIS1970 said:

What are the chances of the 12z chart looking like the 06z charts after 300hrs?

Relatively slim I'd imagine, but who knows..

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.939d44214f433d52790a8d77fb2b13ea.png

Still looking as though pressure will build to our north, though getting that low to clear and allow the cold to come in from Scandinavia is proving a bit tricky with the 06z ens. Hence a few runs keep us in less cold air.

Lots of uncertainty, though the 06z generally seems to produce more progressive output then the rest in recent times.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS 06z is a bit slower in taking the coldest air south during Good Friday than the 00z

06z                                                                   00z

gfs-1-222.thumb.png.fd3debd747348c55f413ba42ee9b558b.pnggfs-1-228.thumb.png.37302d6ff856f6db1b6735a9aafaa0db.png

This results in temps around 5c to 6c higher for some parts Midlands south

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.e445ede30fabf0328a3800250a1f5415.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.09dea792884d7989f12545eeb4bfad76.png

Yep true SS..

 But the cold it introduces afterwards is really amazing for April.

I can see quite a few cold records come to pass if it happens as per the GFS.

Rather more worryingly is that the ECM seems to be trending towards it now.

The GFS has picked up on each of the beasts fairly accurately for the last 2 occasions at its long range.(I agree it does tend to drift a little later on).

Third time lucky?  Can it really be correct again?

MIA  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS 06z mean hasn't changed much from the 00z

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.2e2f70497fde05dba7cb96789ced30a3.png

The snow row on the 00z peaked at 10 - 06z it peaks at 7

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Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

The GFS 6z after day 9 for most of England and Scotland  is amazing . Ireland is not so good for cold . 

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Thank God

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all :)

Though milder again today, plenty of attention turning toward Easter and the possibility of another blast of cold air from points east so will we looking at a White Easter, a Wet Easter or a Warm Easter or some combination thereof ?

Looking ahead to Easter Saturday, March 31st, and starting as always with the ECM 00Z OP at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?21-12

After a short milder spell this week, the descent to cooler and then colder unsettled conditions is pretty steady and by T+240 there's a slack NE'ly airflow between LP over northern France and heights to the NW of Scotland. Uninspiring at best with -8 uppers covering much of the British Isles so cold rain for many but wintry conditions to higher ground likely.

GEM 00Z OP at the same time:

gem-0-240.png?00

More of an Easterly on this chart as the LP sinks south over southern England and into France with pressure building to both NW and NE. This actually keeps milder air over southern areas while cold air is already into the north. Rain or showers for many with the heaviest rain for southern and south western parts and plenty of haar for the east coasts of England and Scotland.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

Another cool or cold chart which GFS has produced consistently for some runs. LP over northern France and heights to the NW keep a NE'ly flow over the British Isles with -12 uppers approaching the east coast so we can safely assume cold and likely to be wet for southern and eastern p[arts though perhaps drier weather moving into the far north-west of Scotland by this time. Further into FI and while there's a brief attempt at milder conditions, the Greenland HP maintains a strong ridge SE and that sends Atlantic features into Europe and means northerly winds and colder air are never far away.

GFS 06Z OP at T+234:

gfs-0-234.png?6

Spot the difference though this run makes more of heights over Scandinavia. This evolves further into FI into a major block but, as is often the case with GFS, it's all very transient and the block breaks down but not without leaving residual heights over the British Isles.

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Plenty of cold air over Scandinavia flooding south and south west over the British Isles in a slack N'ly at this time. Further into FI heights build over Scandinavia before migrating SW over the British Isles and ending up close to the OP.

The GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

The Mean puts the LP more or less on top of the British Isles but represents a split between two clusters - one has LP to the east and south, the other has LP to the north and west and I suppose it's all about timing and whether the trough has disrupted to the south and south east by this point.

In summary, winter rules today on the models. Little or no sign of spring warmth if I'm being honest and plenty of N or NE'ly flows bringing cold air from Scandinavia and the Arctic over the British Isles. The timing of the process is still open to question and GEM offers a slower evolution but the strength of the path and the general agreement looks solid for a transition around the end of the month to something much colder and unsettled. Far too early to be talking about specific snow for specific areas but the likelihood of snow for higher ground looks very high at this time. Lower ground may yet see cold rain rather than any snow but if the likes of -8 uppers are about snow for all looks likely albeit transient in nature. Getting snow to stick at low ground for a period of time in early April takes some doing - snow for high ground in April much less unusual and still likely to linger even with the passage of the year.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
1 hour ago, Purga said:

Maybe but judging by the latest extended METO text forecast it looks like cold all the way until mid April at the very least & then only a slim chance of something slightly 'less cold'.

It's interesting that earlier / middle part of the winter it seemed that there was a 'predisposition' to bring cold weather patterns from the NW and sliding LP systems across the UK for an extended period. Maybe we have entered a phase when there is a similar 'predisposition' to bring very cold shots to us from the N / NE / E

Exactly what the drivers are and which ones predominate (SSW etc?) I'll leave to the experts in other threads.

Suffice it to say, I'm enjoying this fascinating cold phase - just hope it re-emerges around about mid November for - say - 4/5 months. :yahoo:

It would be good to hear the experts thoughts on these repeating patterns like the NW and sliding LP systems across the UK for an extended period like you pointed out and now repeating Easterly patterns with scandy Highs keep reappearing and now possibly for a 3rd time in as many weeks...  it can't just be coincidence!!! Just what are the drivers??? SSW but what El's.. .

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden

GFS continues to be an outliner with unrealistic outputs with cold uppers down to -15, absolutely impossible and nothing to expect since ECMWF continues to show mild westerlies and no sign of " east from the beast". GEM is something in between

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ICON 12z has pressure a bit higher over France compared to the 00z thus slowing down the arrival of the colder air a bit

12z

icon-0-153.thumb.png.1b117368d5ee62f1b8ee30970bb9b097.pngicon-1-153.thumb.png.6c17fea7d8fadad84a23326623a84568.png

00z

icon-0-165.thumb.png.f78652b8cad6ee23099a908cedf2aa9e.pngicon-1-165.thumb.png.7447799a7aeb9e16abcd722eaab13eb0.png

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