Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Nick F]

18z GFS still churning out a cold northerly for the Easter Weekend, it’s consistency for it is remarkable at that range, The triggér upper vortex dropping SE for the northerly is showing in the 8-10 range now, the question is how strong and far north can the Atlantic ridge build to get the crucial block without toppling from the NW....

[cold snap]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

18z GFS still churning out a cold northerly for the Easter Weekend, it’s consistency for it is remarkable at that range, The triggér upper vortex dropping SE for the northerly is showing in the 8-10 range now, the question is how strong and far north can the Atlantic ridge build to get the crucial block without toppling from the NW....

Also what's interesting is the cold looks very locked in.

Not talking about frigid cold but it's a remarkable setup 

[Derecho]

Still plenty of northerly options in there. The Azores high appears to be getting closer to the UK however, a few runs show no northerlies at all and just keep us in a coolish westerly/north westerly airflow. The start of a trend or just an ensemble wobble?

Edited March 19, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[bluearmy]

Much maligned ec46 maintains below av T2 maxes across most of w Europe out to day 46. Days 21/28 show a week with marked below av precip s Iceland and w Norwegian and above av n Spanish coastlines .....  the changing wavelengths probably mean we can’t get the upper trough quite far enough south to bring another really cold easterly but to see 46 days forecast showing no warmth (re average) is quite a change. It is consistent from previous runs aswell! 

2018 - the year without a spring .................

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op, like many gfs runs before it, is still showing a cold unsettled northerly for the Easter period, cold enough for snow at times..the Gefs 00z mean is also very bullish about the idea of a scandi trough and marked mid atlantic high / ridge so a return to wintry weather, this time from the north / arctic looks a very good bet as things stand.❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited March 20, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows it becoming a lot milder into next week

Not a huge amount of rain initially

By the extended we see the Atlantic waking up with rain everywhere at some point

[Frosty.]

According to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, it's going to be a cold unsettled Easter with a scandi trough and mid atlantic ridge with an increasing risk of snow as winds gradually swing Nly / NEly⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄

Edited March 20, 2018 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

The GEM ensembles are very supportive of a fairly potent cold spell, if you take into consideration that the GEM always overplay uppers, then the vast majority of these would be flatlining between -6c and -10c for the whole of the second half of the run, I cant imagine that the same synoptic could be prevailing for the best part of 7 days so you would imagine sinking lows etc would mean that its anything but a completely dry cold spell, in fact even if it was just a Northerly, the wishbone effect wouldn't be as prevalent because of the time of year, so that's the best signal for a sustained cold spell ive seen from any ensemble suite for as late as April as ive seen since ive been on here.

[nick sussex]

Spring on hold for the foreseeable !

Some ghastly output for those hoping for spring warmth. The question at the moment is whether it’s going to be some horrible cold rain with snow reserved for higher elevations or whether March ends with something more widespread .

The GFS 06 hrs run already developing some much colder air to the ne edging west into Scotland.

[Purga]

Solid set of ENS this morning flying the Easter cold flag

Furthermore the GFS 06z run shows the milder push, courtesy of the Azores High ridge, struggling like hell against a developing cold block to the north by this time next week. Note the comparison with the 0z run.

0z                                                               6z

All to play for...

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Spring on hold for the foreseeable !

Some ghastly output for those hoping for spring warmth. The question at the moment is whether it’s going to be some horrible cold rain with snow reserved for higher elevations or whether March ends with something more widespread .

The GFS 06 hrs run already developing some much colder air to the ne edging west into Scotland.

There is indeed some cold air op north ?

[Summer Sun]

06z a good deal colder than the 00z later next week

06z                                                                  00z

[ICE COLD]

GFS 6z Day 9 . And the cold air is spreading south . Nice . 

[ICE COLD]

It will be pretty cold by day too . 

[karyo]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Spring on hold for the foreseeable !

Some ghastly output for those hoping for spring warmth. The question at the moment is whether it’s going to be some horrible cold rain with snow reserved for higher elevations or whether March ends with something more widespread .

The GFS 06 hrs run already developing some much colder air to the ne edging west into Scotland.

The Pyrenees ski resorts must be very pleased with the extension of the skiing season. 

[Summer Sun]

The northerly for the Saturday over Easter has gone on the 06z and is replaced with a deepening low

06z

00z

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Into April the high has gone and the northerly returns

[Purga]

Amazing NH profile at the end of the 06z run !

What a cracker and the theme not wavering bar the odd minor details.

ENS 06z awaited

[nick sussex]

17 minutes ago, karyo said:

The Pyrenees ski resorts must be very pleased with the extension of the skiing season. 

Yes there’s some great skiing conditions at the moment , although a high avalanche risk .

It looks great for Easter. Yesterday here I saw the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen, it started off as rain and then changed over , the 850s weren’t even that cold.

The flakes fell in clumps! Marginal snow is often the best fun to watch falling.

Spring snow can often deliver some surprises especially with those cold downdrafts if you’ve got some Arctic sourced air.

If there’s to be more cold for coldies in the UK then I’d like to see it as potent as possible for the time of year. 

But then I’d really like to see spring arrive as it seems like a very long winter.

Edited March 20, 2018 by nick sussex

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes there’s some great skiing conditions at the moment , although a high avalanche risk .

It looks great for Easter. Yesterday here I saw the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen, it started off as rain and then changed over , the 850s weren’t even that cold.

The flakes fell in clumps! Marginal snow is often the best fun to watch falling.

Spring snow can often deliver some surprises especially with those cold downdrafts if you’ve got some Arctic sourced air.

If there’s to be more cold for coldies in the UK then I’d like to see it as potent as possible for the time of year. 

But then I’d really like to see spring arrive as it seems like a very long winter.

My airbnb hostess in Ariege said that she had a very heavy fall of wet snow in May some years ago. It was so heavy that trees collapsed!

The cold March may give the impression of a long winter but overall it was a mild winter here.

The 6z gfs  certainly offers several opportunities for further spring snowfall.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GEM ensembles are very supportive of a fairly potent cold spell, if you take into consideration that the GEM always overplay uppers, then the vast majority of these would be flatlining between -6c and -10c for the whole of the second half of the run, I cant imagine that the same synoptic could be prevailing for the best part of 7 days so you would imagine sinking lows etc would mean that its anything but a completely dry cold spell, in fact even if it was just a Northerly, the wishbone effect wouldn't be as prevalent because of the time of year, so that's the best signal for a sustained cold spell ive seen from any ensemble suite for as late as April as ive seen since ive been on here.

Apr 1 seems to be the current low point on the eps upper temp anoms. Geps similar. Gefs 2nd.  

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, karyo said:

My airbnb hostess in Ariege said that she had a very heavy fall of wet snow in May some years ago. It was so heavy that trees collapsed!

The cold March may give the impression of a long winter but overall it was a mild winter here.

The 6z gfs  certainly offers several opportunities for further spring snowfall.

Yes I remember that here aswell , it was unbelievable. It was May 4th 2010.

It was the latest ever recorded snow at this lower  elevation , I’m not that high up, just over 1,200 feet.

What was exceptional , the week before we hit 29c!

You can get some huge swings in weather here, in winter from high teens to close to zero in a few days .

Edited March 20, 2018 by nick sussex

[terrier]

Well looking at the gfs06z over Easter doesn’t really fill me with much joy. Cold horrible rain for majority with some snowfall for Scotland and highest parts of northern England. Unfortunately spring does look to be on hold. Wish we could start to see some warmth showing in the output now. Think even the most ardent coldie must be wanting an end now. 

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of rain on the 06z mean any snow is mainly in the north and probably for higher ground maybe some to lower levels overnight but the chances of snow in the south on the mean looks low

Edited March 20, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 6z mean it's a cold unsettled Easter on the way with even a risk of snow ❄❄❄❄