Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Summer Sun]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS look a goer to me.

Plenty of cold rain about any snow will be restricted to the highest ground need colder air than that this time of year for snow at low levels

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Mike Poole]

Should probably stop chasing snow now, but after the last four winters, take all we can get!  GFS keen on Easter northerly, and after the last few weeks could be on the money, who knows.  T288 charts:

Supported by the control:

GEFS probability of uppers below -5C at the same time:

All fine by me so long as when  it's over we go straight to summer!

Edited March 19, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Plenty of cold rain about any snow will be restricted to the highest ground need colder air than that this time of year for snow at low levels

 

Look at the position of the ridge though, look at the transition from 216 to 240, the cold uppers are about to be brought down if it went further, that allied to the fact that there will be a significant cluster not showing the Atlantic ridge, meaning both or any number of solutions cant all be right, so IF the broad setup showing on the mean was the correct solution (of course at this range that's far from certain), then the uppers would be lower.

[Optimus Prime]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Plenty of cold rain about any snow will be restricted to the highest ground need colder air than that this time of year for snow

 

 

Luton airport wasn't closed as a result of this then? 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

 

Luton airport wasn't closed as a result of this then? 

Those are the type of setups that can deliver at this time of year, although not sure there's need for sarcasm though.

[nytram43]

3 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

 

Luton airport wasn't closed as a result of this then? 

Summer sun chart show zero degree isotherm in the English channel your chart same isotherm south of Spain... not fair comparison really.

 

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

 

Luton airport wasn't closed as a result of this then? 

Completely different to the chart I posted mine is far less cold than the one you have used

[Optimus Prime]

6 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

Summer sun chart show zero degree isotherm in the English channel your chart same isotherm south of Spain... not fair comparison really.

 

It's a fine comparison. Different type of pattern obviously but have a look at the chart posted by SS? and where is the 0°c isotherm in 2000? It's barely over Luton at the time of the wet snow (nearly 10cm fell)

I guess my point was, we're using one aspect to make a statement like 'no snow away from the highest ground' which is obviously not true. Based entirely on on those atmospheric temperatures, Sleet could fall quite widely there and snow would be found relatively low down (200-300m roughly)

Edited March 19, 2018 by Optimus Prime

[shotski]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at the position of the ridge though, look at the transition from 216 to 240, the cold uppers are about to be brought down if it went further, that allied to the fact that there will be a significant cluster not showing the Atlantic ridge, meaning both or any number of solutions cant all be right, so IF the broad setup showing on the mean was the correct solution (of course at this range that's far from certain), then the uppers would be lower.

And as if by magic..........

the cold appears. 

Strong anomaly for the turn of the month. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, shotski said:

And as if by magic..........

the cold appears. 

Strong anomaly for the turn of the month. 

Did the -ve anomaly carry on right until the end of the run?, if so - should see a better London graph later.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean at day 10 is primed for a cold shot from the north during Easter as the trough continues to push eastwards and a ridge of high pressure builds north in mid atlantic with arctic air flooding south which has been the theme of the gfs today and recent days too!..I don't think we are finished with winter yet!❄❄❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄

[shotski]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Did the -ve anomaly carry on right until the end of the run?, if so - should see a better London graph later.

Pretty much the same all the way to t-360. Maybe a little less intense. 

[festivalking]

Reference April snow..

In a minute some one is gonna say you can't get lowland snow settling in England in March. Especially in Torquay and Bude.

Yes exceptional synotpics are required. Yes the current modelling is not there yet. But never say never when involving the weather.

[PeterH]

5 minutes ago, chris pawsey said:

I think it was the evening of 25th April 1981 not sure how to check historical charts, interesing to see if you can post?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=4&year=1981&hour=12&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, although I'm not certain that 240 chart would lead to anything as great as the GFS operational, the Atlantic high looks a bit rounded, I'm wondering if it cant get right into the pole because of lower strat profile, I have to confess once we get to this point I rarely view the strat charts, actually scratching my head to think what setup the MO are thinking of by saying unsettled in south, cold and drier in the North as with a N or NWerly you would think the south would be drier, could be a channel low I suppose.

The theme of the eps is for that ridge to be flattened as per the op with the sceuro trough to follow even more marked this evening.  I’m seeing some interesting clusters on the NH profile which look suddenly neg AO in the 8/10 day period. 

Whilst I agree with nick s about the lateness of the time of year, I would rather have another bash at Easter snow than mild drabness and rain. 

[feb1991blizzard]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The theme of the eps is for that ridge to be flattened as per the op with the sceuro trough to follow even more marked this evening.  I’m seeing some interesting clusters on the NH profile which look suddenly neg AO in the 8/10 day period. 

Whilst I agree with nick s about the lateness of the time of year, I would rather have another bash at Easter snow than mild drabness and rain. 

Where is the ridging after D10 please, I would have thought there must be some sort of ridge?, even if a small wedge of heights somewhere to the North, to have that aforementioned Sceuro troughing dropping the uppers to a 5c -ve anomaly, obviously it cant be Scandi because of the trough.

Edited March 19, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where is the ridging after D10 please, I would have thought there must be some sort of ridge?, even if a small wedge of heights somewhere to the North, to have that aforementioned Sceuro troughing dropping the uppers to a 5c -ve anomaly, obviously I cant be Scandi because of the trough.

Sorry, marked mid Atlantic ridge - together with aleutian ridge almost splits the vortex and orientates the Asian down to the sceuro trough - not so different to the gefs 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended is the latest to bring the Azores high northwards early next week

Bit of a change from the 00z!

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening ! My thoughts for tonight is a gradual rise to normal temps,  in the next few days  The GFS  offers at its final shout some very cold uppers  by April some strong sunshine , Some Amazing Cloudscapes  and some Amazing weather A very exciting time  for weather watchers

[Mike Poole]

ICON at T60:

Quiet weather, all a bit meh!

What is wrong with me?  Is it possible that I can't stop posting pointless charts from rubbish models, because we've been doing it for best part of a month now?  Suppose it will heal with time like most things, oh yes, I'm aware of the GFS northerly!   What a Feb/Mar period.  Model watchers dream!

Edited March 19, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Nick F]

EC weeklies suggesting spring warmth on hold perhaps as we head into early April, weeks 2 and 3 broadly show the signal of ridging in the Atlantic and troughing over NE and E Europe

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Nick F

[bluearmy]

Eps clusters are split between a  deep broad nw European upper trough and an average looking zonal trough ridge pattern. Exeter were keen on a slow moving blocked pattern so glosea and/Or mogreps clearly with the broad trough. that’s not springlike at all! 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters are split between a  deep broad nw European upper trough and an average looking zonal trough ridge pattern. Exeter were keen on a slow moving blocked pattern so glosea and/Or mogreps clearly with the broad trough. that’s not springlike at all! 

 

 

 

And to add to that, even cluster 2 looks cold d12 - 15.

[Purga]

Still looking good for Easter

If nothing else GFS is consistent with this longer range signal & it has been with the recent cold spells.

Don't put the sledges away yet...

[ICE COLD]

The GFS 18z carries on the theme off the last few days . Doesn't quite get the the really cold air over us but the trend is definitely there .