Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Purga]

Brilliant - direct hit from the north pole - a long fetch northerly

Loadsa snow as well

GFS like a dog with a bone with this set-up.

 

[cheshire snow]

Arpege Model showing some Wintry PPN For the far SE Corner tomorrow Morning

C.S

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

Brilliant - direct hit from the north pole - a long fetch northerly

Loadsa snow as well

GFS like a dog with a bone with this set-up.

 

Just a word of caution, we need it to start showing on the ECM though before we pop the champagne corks. It may be a timing issue with the ECM might just be about to showit at 240 in a few days, or it might just be that the ECM isn't buying into it at all.

[Summer Sun]

ECM going for high pressure to build at t168

Hopefully, ECM has this right and we can finally move into spring proper

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a word of caution, we need it to start showing on the ECM though before we pop the champagne corks. It may be a timing issue with the ECM might just be about to showit at 240 in a few days, or it might just be that the ECM isn't buying into it at all.

100% right

ecm may throw out the odd dodgy run but when it’s consistent in the 5/8 day range it is usually right. Gavin will be encouraged to see the Azores ridge extend northeast again. If it’s there again tomorrow mornin, extending across nw Europe  then a pleasant Easter can’t  be ruled out and would become favoured imo 

EDIT: I must add that the modelling of the mid term across the polar field is all over the place at the moment. It might be best to wait for that to settle down before committing anywhere approaching Easter. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

100% right

ecm may throw out the odd dodgy run but when it’s consistent in the 5/8 day range it is usually right. Gavin will be encouraged to see the Azores ridge extend northeast again. If it’s there again tomorrow mornin, extending across nw Europe  then a pleasant Easter can’t  be ruled out and would become favoured imo 

Yes although the reason I talked about timing issue is the Met Office do talk of something resembling the GEFS of sorts although nothing as extreme reading between the lines, but they talk of it at Easter weekend as opposed to the middle of next week, so the ECM could be right wrt D10 but then the Azores could pull back after a brief mild spell and open the floodgates Easter Saturday / sunday.

[Summer Sun]

This is more like it what a lovely chart at t192 plenty of nice mild air heading our way

Obviously, cloud amounts would vary but at least it would be mild instead of cold

[Downpour]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

This is more like it what a lovely chart at t192 plenty of nice mild air heading our way

Obviously, cloud amounts would vary but at least it would be mild instead of cold

Is this the ECM evening run? The overnight run also favoured spring over winter so a trendsetter one might hope... I love snow but am over it now. 

[Purga]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes although the reason I talked about timing issue is the Met Office do talk of something resembling the GEFS of sorts although nothing as extreme reading between the lines, but they talk of it at Easter weekend as opposed to the middle of next week, so the ECM could be right wrt D10 but then the Azores could pull back after a brief mild spell and open the floodgates Easter Saturday / sunday.

Agreed and ECM throws out a horror chart that we are all to familiar with from the past.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Downpour said:

Is this the ECM evening run? The overnight run also favoured spring over winter so a trendsetter one might hope... I love snow but am over it now. 

Yes, date and run time on the top left

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This is more like it what a lovely chart at t192 plenty of nice mild air heading our way

Obviously, cloud amounts would vary but at least it would be mild instead of cold

This is more like it - here she comes.

[Summer Sun]

Starting to get a bit more unsettled at the end but holding onto the milder air in the south

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes although the reason I talked about timing issue is the Met Office do talk of something resembling the GEFS of sorts although nothing as extreme reading between the lines, but they talk of it at Easter weekend as opposed to the middle of next week, so the ECM could be right wrt D10 but then the Azores could pull back after a brief mild spell and open the floodgates Easter Saturday / sunday.

you mean like that?

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Starting to get a bit more unsettled at the end but holding onto the milder air in the south

Northerly setting in by the end of the run. 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is more like it - here she comes.

You need to move to Lapland ! 

I’m really ready for spring now , I haven’t turned to the dark side but would be very happy to see the Azores high ridge in!

For coldies in the UK this late you need exceptional synoptics to deliver.

 

[Summer Sun]

The potential wakening up of the Azores high next week is clearly causing issues today with differing options between ECM and the others

Could be a short visit next week before back away in time for Easter then maybe another go after

[Purga]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is more like it - here she comes.

Yep - lining up nicely for the Easter freeze up

There's good support from the 12z GEFS as well - a decent number of -10's in there.

Edited March 19, 2018 by Purga

[feb1991blizzard]

Deleted.

Edited March 19, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

JMA 12z is another which shows the Azores high moving north putting the UK in a milder flow of air

Wetter in the north drier in the south

 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you mean like that?

Yes, although I'm not certain that 240 chart would lead to anything as great as the GFS operational, the Atlantic high looks a bit rounded, I'm wondering if it cant get right into the pole because of lower strat profile, I have to confess once we get to this point I rarely view the strat charts, actually scratching my head to think what setup the MO are thinking of by saying unsettled in south, cold and drier in the North as with a N or NWerly you would think the south would be drier, could be a channel low I suppose.

[Frosty.]

I really hope the Gfs is right, at least it gets 10/10 for continuity and entertainment value for coldies..we have seen 2 Beasts from the East which has been wonderful and the icing on the cake would be a Northerly blast or 3 for the Easter period..fingers crossed!..while there is still potential for potent Arctic outbreaks i will stay in cold mode chasing cold weather and then as usual i will be looking for plumes and warm anticyclones.

[nick sussex]

Unless you’re going to get a strong block to pull the coldest air possible at this time of year into the UK then it’s going to be underwhelming.

Expectations have to be lowered now , overnight snow yes and settling , temporary accumulations possible during daylight hours.

The mini beast although short packed a punch, but another  ten days down the line you’re fighting even stronger solar energy.

The best set ups at this time of year generally come from the ne or n, with those hefty showers dropping the freezing level.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unless you’re going to get a strong block to pull the coldest air possible at this time of year into the UK then it’s going to be underwhelming.

Expectations have to be lowered now , overnight snow yes and settling , temporary accumulations possible during daylight hours.

The mini beast although short packed a punch, but another  ten days down the line you’re fighting even stronger solar energy.

The best set ups at this time of year generally come from the ne or n, with those hefty showers dropping the freezing level.

 

 

I don't think showers will do the trick, like you say you need perfect synoptics, but IMO that doesn't necessarily mean -10 - -12c uppers, you can still achieve it on the Northern flank of a steadily sinking trough or wave, I'm thinking of April 5th 2012 from recent memory or the greates example - 23rd ish April 1981, or something like 8th Dec 1990 but except in April, the one thing that's been lacking for me this winter is a spell of heavy snow where you know its not going to stop, I keep picking the wrong times to go up the pub so I would like a definite guaranteed 3 or 4 hours of heavy snow and these are the type of setups that could deliver it.

Edited March 19, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Chesil View]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unless you’re going to get a strong block to pull the coldest air possible at this time of year into the UK then it’s going to be underwhelming.

Expectations have to be lowered now , overnight snow yes and settling , temporary accumulations possible during daylight hours.

The mini beast although short packed a punch, but another  ten days down the line you’re fighting even stronger solar energy.

The best set ups at this time of year generally come from the ne or n, with those hefty showers dropping the freezing level.

 

 

Don,t forget that other springtime favourite Nick.  The polar Low.   These have brought some spectacular April snowfalls through the years.

Interesting to see both the ECM AND GFS singing froma broadly similar hymnsheet at 240. A situation which could spawn the aforementioned 

polar low. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

EPS look a goer to me.