Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, Purga said:

Beast 3 ready to strike

This a recurring theme suggested by GFS over recent days and a reminder of the way it spotted the current mini Beast re-emergence from way out in FI to eventual fruition.

Who's dreaming of a white Easter?

And a white April anyone?

 

Well...

I don't think I ever recall seeing those NOAA temp anomaly charts show anything other than widespread anomalous warmth for Europe...so that has certainly got my attention.

[geordiekev]

17 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

There's quite a few runs which have -10C hpa over the British Isles so they would still be snowy I reckon. Though yes, very hard to get decent coverings of snow by April (though still possible). I will be happier to see plumes or ridges of high pressure I think, the snow can return in November! 

The beauty is for fans is that you can have snow in October and May with only 4 months to wait between the 2. It doesn't matter if it doesn't stay around, it's the falling that counts and is nice to see. So far since November, I've had 5 good months of falling snow and my location has beat the whole of the UK nationwide average, with 34 days of falling snow just in my back garden since November, though it would be nice to make it 6 continuous month in a row, till the short wait.

Edited March 19, 2018 by geordiekev

[lassie23]

Interesting out put again, the easter cold blast could last longer than the one we have just had from the east

[mb018538]

ECM looks nice this morning.....high pressure slowly building in through the middle of next week. Could it be the first proper 'spring' high pressure of the season?



850s of 4-8c....I'd expect some temps the good side of the mid teens with that. Maybe 14-16c?

[Newberryone]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM looks nice this morning.....high pressure slowly building in through the middle of next week. Could it be the first proper 'spring' high pressure of the season?



850s of 4-8c....I'd expect some temps the good side of the mid teens with that. Maybe 14-16c?

I was just about to say the same thing. If this is a new theme/trend from the Ecm it will most definitely put to bed any notion of a White Easter. We’ve done very well in general with regards to cold and snow this past Winter season and now I for one would wholeheartedly welcome some nice Spring warmth.

[Frosty.]

Beautiful Gfs 00z this morning, winter returns with a vengeance bringing a white Easter and staying very cold and snowy beyond easter too!!⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[Johnp]

55 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

I was just about to say the same thing. If this is a new theme/trend from the Ecm it will most definitely put to bed any notion of a White Easter. We’ve done very well in general with regards to cold and snow this past Winter season and now I for one would wholeheartedly welcome some nice Spring warmth.

It looks a bit isolated compared to the other models. Still on for a cold Easter imo.

[Summer Sun]

As nice as the ECM op is towards Easter the mean shows it has little support with more than 20mb difference in pressure between the two

 

[Derecho]

Swingometers updated for the last week of March again. The Atlantic seems keen to wake back up again but rather then bringing warmth its catching cold air from the NW North Atlantic. A very cyclonic set of ensembles but rather chilly and wet. Northern blocking toned down or delayed to the start of April but still a colder then average outlook for now.

[Summer Sun]

The differences between ECM and GFS on how they handle the Azores high during next week the ECM op has it breaking through with relative ease by D9 whereas the GFS op doesn't which keeps us colder with further snow at times

Edited March 19, 2018 by Summer Sun

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

As nice as the ECM op is towards Easter the mean shows it has little support with more than 20mb difference in pressure between the two

 

You call it outlier....I call it trend setter

Does look way out though. Most models trending cooler, and also drier into next week.

[Summer Sun]

Big changes between the 00z and 06z with the Azores high starting to wake up on this run

We'll still get the colder air by Easter weekend as the high isn't moving far enough north for now going to be interesting watching tho if the Azores does suddenly wake up and move northwards

Edited March 19, 2018 by Summer Sun

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Big changes between the 00z and 06z with the Azores high starting to wake up on this run

Which then helps to bring a screaming northerly! 

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Big changes between the 00z and 06z with the Azores high starting to wake up on this run

We'll still get the colder air by Easter weekend as the high isn't moving far enough north for now going to be interesting watching tho if the Azores does suddenly wake up and move northwards

Looks like standard variation. The GFS does offer some good convective potential.

[cold snap]

White easter is good bet.

Direct wind from the artic is what's required and that's exactly what happens

Incredible run again from GFS

Edited March 19, 2018 by cold snap

[cold snap]

22 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looks like standard variation. The GFS does offer some good convective potential.

Bring the run forward Frosty ground it's direct from the artic.

Edited March 19, 2018 by cold snap

[Purga]

Great ! And so the theme continues

Every bit as bitter as the current Beast but direct Arctic northerly at the time of year when the Arctic is at it's coldest.

Widespread snow / blizzards across the Nation.

A cracking Easter weekend if it verifies and GFS pretty damned consistent across several runs now.

EDIT: Northerly morphs into a very tasty NE'LY at the end of the run - winter continues....

Edited March 19, 2018 by Purga

[bluearmy]

I wouldn’t discount an Azores ridge for Easter - the difference between a mid Atlantic feature and a w European one isn’t so great. It’s just not currently the favoured option. 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z = Lovely stuff..hopefully a white Easter with plenty of very cold arctic air reloads and snow, ice & severe frosts!!⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄???

[ICE COLD]

It's been a consistent theme of the GFS , bringing winter back for Easter . And boy does it continue on the 6z . 

[Skullzrulerz]

You do know that this is 2 weeks away ? What's happening before ?

[frosty ground]

13 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

You do know that this is 2 weeks away ? What's happening before ?

not much

[ICE COLD]

1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

You do know that this is 2 weeks away ? What's happening before ?

It starts at around T240 on the GFS 6z . That's only around 10 days away . Just saying ?

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

You do know that this is 2 weeks away ? What's happening before ?

Rain after the sinking ridge 

[Purga]

An increasing number of runs showing -10C uppers for Easter

Hardly any getting above +5C throughout the whole run. So similar to the last 2 'Beast' signals i.e. a brief 'less cold' phase then Bingo back into the freezer.

Edited March 19, 2018 by Purga