Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Derecho]

Swingometer updated again for the last week of March and a more blocked picture is definitely emerging with a stronger signal for heights to our N/NW.



A few runs see cold air from Scandinavia reaching the UK again, though not as cold as this mini-beast obviously!

[Gowon]

24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Swingometer updated again for the last week of March and a more blocked picture is definitely emerging with a stronger signal for heights to our N/NW.



A few runs see cold air from Scandinavia reaching the UK again, though not as cold as this mini-beast obviously!

Then it's pointless.

It has to be colder to be anything worthwhile for that time of year.

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Then it's pointless.

It has to be colder to be anything worthwhile for that time of year.

Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just pointing out what the ensembles show....

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just pointing out what the ensembles show....

Not having a go at you QS

Was just saying if it isn't as cold as this one then it can do one.. it'll just end up grey and cold

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Not having a go at you QS

Was just saying if it isn't as cold as this one then it can do one.. it'll just end up grey and cold

There's quite a few runs which have -10C hpa over the British Isles so they would still be snowy I reckon. Though yes, very hard to get decent coverings of snow by April (though still possible). I will be happier to see plumes or ridges of high pressure I think, the snow can return in November! 

Edited March 18, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

There's quite a few runs which have -10C hpa over the British Isles so they would still be snowy I reckon. Though yes, very hard to get decent coverings of snow by April (though still possible). I will be happier to see plumes or ridges of high pressure I think, the snow can return in November! 

Slider lows wouldn't be bad too.. Anyway I fear we're going to wait a while now to see any warm weather.

[JeffC]

59 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Slider lows wouldn't be bad too.. Anyway I fear we're going to wait a while now to see any warm weather.

I'd be happy enough just for it to be dry...so if the output suggests N/NE/E then at least it's better than an Atlantic influenced deluge. From what I've seen up to now, the models are suggesting a less than normal Atlantic driven spell at least for the reliable future...

[mb018538]

We’re just about past the time when the Atlantic steamroller shouldn’t be too much trouble. Obviously storms can still brew, but much more likely to get northern blocking etc in April than December.

[Derecho]

30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We’re just about past the time when the Atlantic steamroller shouldn’t be too much trouble. Obviously storms can still brew, but much more likely to get northern blocking etc in April than December.

Yup, easterlies generally tend to dominate in April so with the cold over the continent I get a feeling April could also see temperatures well below average! In 2013 we were spared of that because the Atlantic woke up in the middle of the month. Alternatively we could get high pressure rolling in which is always welcome, 1984 was like this after a cold March.

Anyhow 06z ens still paint a cold picture, although less coherent northern blocking than the 00z. For some reason the 06z ensembles recently have been least keen on colder evolutions. Hmmm

 Pretty noisy pattern at the moment

 Rolling sum of the last 4 ensemble sets at each timestep, only obvious trend is a drop in the number of warmer solutions.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[nick sussex]

Yuk!

The outputs are ghastly . I love cold weather and snow but draw the line at if only outputs !

You know perfect winter set ups which fail to deliver this late. At this stage of the season you need to keep setting the bar higher to get anything remotely worthwhile.

Unless some exceptional synoptics show up then I’m ready to wave goodbye to winter weather.

Unfortunately it’s never  that simple in spring . I very much like eastern Canadian winters where you often go from cold and snow to much warmer weather in the space of a few weeks and avoid the mediocrity in the middle ! 

[SnowBorder]

deleted

Edited March 18, 2018 by SnowBorder

[Johnp]

Icon looks like it could easily develop to "Beast III - This time it's personal ".

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Yuk!

The outputs are ghastly . I love cold weather and snow but draw the line at if only outputs !

You know perfect winter set ups which fail to deliver this late. At this stage of the season you need to keep setting the bar higher to get anything remotely worthwhile.

Unless some exceptional synoptics show up then I’m ready to wave goodbye to winter weather.

Unfortunately it’s never  that simple in spring . I very much like eastern Canadian winters where you often go from cold and snow to much warmer weather in the space of a few weeks and avoid the mediocrity in the middle ! 

Nick, I'm convinced we're going to get a third beast - there's still a lot of very cold air lurking to the north east.

We'll probably be limited to settling snow at night by then - could do with a few cold, low dew point days in the build up though.

Imagine we did get another cold spell - would surely be a March for the record books? 

[Derecho]

Afternoon, latest swingometer is similar to the 06zs, generally a colder then average picture for the last week of March. Some sharp, quick northerlies in there. Other thing to note is a few members toy with building heights to our North again. P10 gets pretty close to delivering another cold easterly....

[Matthew.]

The jet stream again way south on the ECM for next Friday. Ps- if it’s still in this position come June this could be irreversible

[Matthew.]

delete

Edited March 18, 2018 by Matthew.

[bluearmy]

No change on the extended - both gefs and eps. note that the meto two weekend talks about another cold block to our ne. Signs on the eps that n scandi could see some higher slp as week 2 progresses - an Easter easterly has a nice alliterational ring to it!!

Edited March 18, 2018 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No change on the extended - both gefs and eps. note that the meto two weekend talks about another cold block to our ne. Signs on the eps that n scandi could see some higher slp as week 2 progresses - an Easter easterly has a nice alliterational ring to it!!

GEFS scream Greenland heights to me, possibly with the flow veering NE and ultimately may topple to scandi so of course E'ly possible, either way, blocking with cold enough for snow certainly not out of the question.

[Lincs Observation]

3 hours ago, Matthew. said:

The jet stream again way south on the ECM for next Friday. Ps- if it’s still in this position come June this could be irreversible

One would like to think that nature or odds choose either would have a way of balancing things out come summer we need balance in the force ?

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Gfs 18z shows a white Easter with NEly winds straight from the arctic..❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited March 18, 2018 by Frosty.

[Hotspur62]

See GFS at it again for Easter!!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Now the theory that you cant have hefty falls of snow in low level southern UK in mid March has been disproved, time for the 'You cant have hefty falls of snow in low level southern UK in late March / April' brigade will have to be disproved, heres a good starting point.

[Purga]

Beast 3 ready to strike

This a recurring theme suggested by GFS over recent days and a reminder of the way it spotted the current mini Beast re-emergence from way out in FI to eventual fruition.

Who's dreaming of a white Easter?

And a white April anyone?

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by Purga

[Philbill]

This is going to be more common as possible outcomes over the next few weeks if the jet stream does not recover from its Southerly track. It may even mean a colder Summer, especially if it stays South

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Beast 3 ready to strike

This a recurring theme suggested by GFS over recent days and a reminder of the way it spotted the current mini Beast re-emergence from way out in FI to eventual fruition.

Who's dreaming of a white Easter?

And a white April anyone?

 

Come on we in the southeast, cold rain and sleet?  

It doesn't fill me with joy, although it is looking increasingly likely winter will pounce back with an northerly plunge near months end with return of severe frosts and wintry precip not necessarily restricted to the north and hills not looking good for gardeners. We do get potent northerly airstreams at this time of year much more than we do from the east, as we saw in 2008 in which there was cover all the way to south coast from a very active trough. Maybe ‘deep’ cold possible from northeast, as the pub run shows. If that pulled off then the ice age loony brigade would be wetting theirselves. We may be seeing a change from cluster of dire winters with solar minimum, so will make for interesting times / discussions I foresee. I have enjoyed reading mod thread immensely this winter, while there’s the less good that happens. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Daniel*