Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

 

PS the ECM day 8 ! It’s a shame all this is happening so late.

Good omen for next winter though! 

Edited March 16, 2018 by blizzard81

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Really ! I think some colder air gets pulled west again between T48 hrs and T60hrs.

Those slightly higher uppers towards the south and se in relation to the low in the Channel are replaced by something colder.

Although the instability falls it looks just enough to continue to produce some convection , late Sunday into early hours Monday.

We’ll see...

PS the ECM day 8 ! It’s a shame all this is happening so late.

D9 -16c  still over Norway waiting to pounce, it can carry on as late as it wants as far as I'm concerned, I would take this all summer, just have an extended winter, cancel summer then just go straight into late Autumn again.

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Good omen for next winter though! 

If only it was that simple . 

Certainly for northern areas with some elevation the latest ECM could deliver , I think we’d need to see some stronger blocking to the nw to drive the colder air right into the UK.

This looks great though for the Scottish ski resorts.

Oh another easterly at day ten on the ECM , what took you so long ! 

Unless another PV chunk drops south then preferably it’s better to have a northerly or ne flow as the continent does start to heat up now although it looks like a struggle given the spring no show .

Edited March 16, 2018 by nick sussex

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If only it was that simple . 

Certainly for northern areas with some elevation the latest ECM could deliver , I think we’d need to see some stronger blocking to the nw to drive the colder air right into the UK.

This looks great though for the Scottish ski resorts.

Oh another easterly at day ten on the ECM , what took you so long ! 

I am very optimistic about next winter. I always am though lol. Easterlies eh? Just like British buses! 

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

D9 -16c  still over Norway waiting to pounce, it can carry on as late as it wants as far as I'm concerned, I would take this all summer, just have an extended winter, cancel summer then just go straight into late Autumn again.

Aren’t you describing what normally happens in the UK !  

Of course everyone knows I’m an ardent coldie but not so interested when it becomes chasing slush around !

If there’s to be another cold snap I’d rather that got upgraded and then that’s it , I’m ready for some warmer weather now.

 

[mulzy]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I am very optimistic about next winter. I always am though lol. Easterlies eh? Just like British buses! 

If only - it’s also quite possible we will have a raging PV over Greenland and a ridiculously positive NAO.  Anyway, that’s a long way off (though getting into CFS range!!!).

Edited March 16, 2018 by mulzy

[MR EXTREMES]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If only it was that simple . 

Certainly for northern areas with some elevation the latest ECM could deliver , I think we’d need to see some stronger blocking to the nw to drive the colder air right into the UK.

This looks great though for the Scottish ski resorts.

Oh another easterly at day ten on the ECM , what took you so long ! 

Unless another PV chunk drops south then preferably it’s better to have a northerly or ne flow as the continent does start to heat up now although it looks like a struggle given the spring no show .

Northeasterly please as I'm a selfish southerner ECM is most certainly not boring.

Beautiful charts as u say though shame it's not heart of winter.

And yes I think if solar activity was zero in summer with a el nino we would of been laughing this winter.

But still this winter has delivered and great to see Jigsaw parts coming together regardless of it being march.

But regardless be nice to see something wintry over this weekend to add to the march collection.

Here in the south.Costa

 del south coast.

And yes nick heat is nice to.

Edited March 16, 2018 by MR EXTREMES

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

If only - it’s also quite possible we will have a raging PV over Greenland and a ridiculously positive NAO.  Anyway, that’s a long way off (though getting into CFS range!!!).

Will be keeping a close eye on the ENSO over the next few months that's for sure. Heading towards solar minimum certainly can't harm our prospects though. 

[Frosty.]

Amazing Ecm 12z with Beast No3 in development..what a spring this is turning into..much better than winter!!⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄

Ps..nearly forgot, nice freeze this weekend with a few ice days and snow for many..

Edited March 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

I'm distracted from the usual medium term with the big 3 at the moment, so here's the latest on what the higher resolution short term models are currently predicting.  Charts are cumulative snow (cm) including that that melts unless stated otherwise, cut off time end Sunday, earlier for those models that don't go that far, 12z runs all.

HIRLAM (model in favour at the moment) - to lunchtime Sunday - heavy snow in N, SE, SW, Scotland and Wales:

ARPEGE - the N, Scotland seem similar on all models, this one less favourable for the SE:

WRF-NMM - similar, less keen on East Anglia:

ICON-EU - puts SE back into play:

FMI-HIRLAM - just total precipitation (mm), so treat as if cm snow for comparison, and only to 6pm Sunday, hinting at more snow for Central Southern England:

Let's see what happens!

Edited March 16, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Purga]

33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Aren’t you describing what normally happens in the UK !  

Of course everyone knows I’m an ardent coldie but not so interested when it becomes chasing slush around !

If there’s to be another cold snap I’d rather that got upgraded and then that’s it , I’m ready for some warmer weather now.

 

Blimey Nick, I didn't have you down as a lightweight !

P19 on the ENS run would do me perfectly as a nice opener to April

Yes please Matron......

[Matthew.]

Don’t worry everybody.. more beasts on the way for April

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Don’t worry everybody.. more beasts on the way for April

What model please and what site can I find it? - I'm guessing its the CFS.

Edited March 16, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Matthew.]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What model please and what site can I find it? - I'm guessing its the CFS.

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cfscharts.asp

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cfscharts.asp

Problem is the uppers aren't great as the back end sags out of the high, you need it sourced from a NE direction in April.

This subsequent run is better, this would be well below average for April with a snow threat.

[cold snap]

The ECM mean at 240 is insane.

Beast from the east part 3 anyone ?

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, cold snap said:

The ECM mean at 240 is insane.

Beast from the east part 3 anyone ?

Seems like fleeting continental cold theres just no blocking to push deep cold our way a cold zonal sort of pattern I think would follow. Unsettled and horrible really, the Scottish mountains will be white.

[bluearmy]

 on the agenda as the eps extended have evolved from the sinking ridge - the mean and clusters have been talking undercuts/sliders and the new suite is no different - whilst I am no great fan of highlighting any control, (at least the ec control runs at 17 km to day 15 ) today it shows a pukka channel low in the extended period 

[Frosty.]

There must be a good chance of a white Easter the way some of the models look today, surely more cold spells to come..great potential so far this spring!

[supernova]

Surprisingly quiet in here all things considered. No doubt everyone's heading to the regionals. Meanwhile, can any of our more experienced members help me understand the potential consequences of a convergence zone being as we seeing them drawn on UKMO faxes over the next couple of days? Two air flows converging in the same area? Constant showers? Couldn't find a useful explanation anywhere.

 

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, supernova said:

Surprisingly quiet in here all things considered. No doubt everyone's heading to the regionals. Meanwhile, can any of our more experienced members help me understand the potential consequences of a convergence zone being as we seeing them drawn on UKMO faxes over the next couple of days? Two air flows converging in the same area? Constant showers? Couldn't find a useful explanation anywhere.

 

You're about right. Two air sources meet, clouds go up, rain comes down. Only it'll be snow this time. Remember Boscastle floods? That was a convergence zone. A 24 how convergence snow sounds very very snowy!

[Interitus]

37 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You're about right. Two air sources meet, clouds go up, rain comes down. Only it'll be snow this time. Remember Boscastle floods? That was a convergence zone. A 24 how convergence snow sounds very very snowy!

Except Boscastle occurred during summer with a deep moist atmosphere (dew point ~15°C, precipitable water >1 inch) with deep convection triggered by Bodmin Moor (35,000 ft Cb), and this is a shallow dry atmosphere (sub-zero dp, <1/4 inch pwat) which is generally stable. Apart from that, yeah.

Boscastle review - max recorded 200mm rainfall - - https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Robert_Doe3/publication/278016840_Extreme_precipitation_and_run-off_induced_flash_flooding_at_Boscastle_Cornwall_UK_16_August_2004/links/56a6150e08ae2c689d39ce9c/Extreme-precipitation-and-run-off-induced-flash-flooding-at-Boscastle-Cornwall-UK-16-August-2004.pdf

Edited March 16, 2018 by Interitus

[supernova]

28 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You're about right. Two air sources meet, clouds go up, rain comes down. Only it'll be snow this time. Remember Boscastle floods? That was a convergence zone. A 24 how convergence snow sounds very very snowy!

Top banana MWB, thanks everso  Also explains HIRLAM's interest in building accumulation more intensely than previous runs. 

[Dancerwithwings]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What model please and what site can I find it? - I'm guessing its the CFS.

Looks like the early 80's retro Model

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Gfs18z shows arctic air and snow for easter..as I said earlier, some of today's models are suggesting a white Easter and the way this spring is evolving, with another freeze this weekend, it wouldn't be such a surprise if we do see more cold and more snow through late march / early april...happy days for coldies! ❄❄❄❄❄❄⛄⛄

Edited March 16, 2018 by Frosty.