Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
Other options:
Model moans, ramps and banter
Regional discussions

For more focused short-range model discussion:
Short-range Model Discussion

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Sticking to the reliable, well just 72 hours, because there is lots to discuss. Subtle shifts in the position of scandi heights being shown by all models, trending north is the theme, thanks to the influence of low heights to the south anchoring northwards, conversely we will have a much stronger straight aligned easterly, troughs could therefore easily develop and more organised bouts of snow, making there way westwards. So a very wintry weekend on the cards, notable for mid March. Longer term, heights look like sinking to the SW with the atlantic returning, but not in any concerted effort, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a stall set up once again, heights to the NE putting on a brake, and low pressure forced on a negative tilt, with heights possible then ridging strongly over Greenland, and NE blast to welcome easter perhaps?

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

HIRLAM 18z suggests some more oomph in that weakening front moving South than the previous run did here at T36:

hirlamuk-1-36-0.png?15-22

Cumulative snow (note not snow depth) by end of run 6pm Saturday:

hirlamuk-45-48-0.png?15-23

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

GFS 18Z sends the trough into the SE Sunday am.

BTW - in the last cold spell I found the HIRLAM good for snow off the N Sea, but a bit bumpy for actual positioning of the cold pool - I wouldn't be surprised if it corrects back for the 00Z.

Also for frontal snow, ARGEPE still the champion IMO. Will be watching the 18Z shortly to see what it does about Saturday lunchtime!!

 

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
14 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

How come this show lots of snowfall in Scotland when we’ve only been forecast the odd shower? Is there a chance that the Forcasts are well off the mark?

I think that's from the rain to snow event before the beast hits. It's already on the turn looking at current radar.

S80315-22115925.jpg

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

I think its a case if your splitting hairs -

 

I mean, I was only enquiring... it helps if there is clarity for those who are still learning, can help avoid any confusion.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Screaming NE'ly coming up here - look at the polar heights rising and the angle of the flow through Svalbard and the Atlantic profile.

gfsnh-0-228_lzv1.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Screaming NE'ly coming up here - look at the polar heights rising and the angle of the flow through Svalbard and the Atlantic profile.

gfsnh-0-228_lzv1.png

Looking like it could be polar bears from the north rather then beasts from the east?

Extended ensembles have been flirting with the idea of a potent northerly for a while now. Was hoping a propped up high with retrogression could really pull down the CET but I'm sure that cold air would do a pretty good job.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Looking like it could be polar bears from the north rather then beasts from the east?

I'm thinking Greenland height rises towards months end.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Screaming NE'ly coming up here - look at the polar heights rising and the angle of the flow through Svalbard and the Atlantic profile.

gfsnh-0-228_lzv1.png

It's bean showing this scenario for a good while now though Feb,even a beast #3:shok:

i feel spring won't exist and skip to summer,if we have one.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

Snow for many of us during our next Beasty boy, or girl :), from Friday night until Sunday evening, just classing this as a bonus as many of us has had a great winter already and so far, even that might be an understatement and its meant to be spring.

Snow prediction charts below = :yahoo::cold::D

1.png

2.png

3.png

4.png

5.png

6.png

7.png

8.png

9.png

Edited by Sparkiee storm
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like GFS has sniffed out something wintry in the extended

Netweather GFS Image

It was just a bit of shortwave energy that stopped that being an absolute beauty of a run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like GFS has sniffed out something wintry in the extended

Netweather GFS Image

image.thumb.png.fafd70e31f384f6f4ad17f418bd3cff0.png

As my favourite old time comedian would say! :good:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ARGEPE 18Z runs a much milder sector into the SE for Saturday night, showing a rain/snow mix in its raw output, leaving the rest of the UK to fight in out for the snow - E Ireland, again, doing well.

But it is just one more run. The biggest surprise in the morning will be if each model is exactly the same.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well  well compared to 12Z the 18Z has the cold spell reduced to a snap all but over by late Monday ,beast 2 if you can call it that now to a least but 2 and a half day circus than a show which this time around as a result the models over the last 5 days have been a complete sham and a waste of our time ,even the AO has gone from staying mainly negative to a strengthening positive in 2 days 

Impossible for anyone to forecast beyond 3 days under current farcical model performance, in fact if tonights pub run is mirrored at 00Z and 06Z then it's becoming beyond laughable it's becoming an outrage that these so called state of the art systems can be taken that seriously beyond 3 days let alone 5 ,sad but true,and killing any weather forum discussions before they can get started 

This week has put model discussion at new lowest depths ,and proof that even in these days of  up to date technology we still aren't any better off seeing into the future than we were 20 years ago, strange:wallbash::fool:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

18z Arpege extends the -6 T850s right through to Tuesday, with -14c not far off eastern coast. You can see the cold already creeping into Scotland, hence the rain to snow event ongoing.

ezgif-2-f81b1767e5.gif

I have to say the accumulation charts were quite accurate in the North East last time around so could be very memorable since the upgrades taking this SNAP to a 5 day event with snow lying a good few days after in favoured locations ❄⛄❄

arpegeuk-45-114-0.png

Edited by geordiekev
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Here's the sort of thing I have in mind for months end, this could easily have happened on the GFS 18z op.

gensnh-8-1-384_jko2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

This definitely looks beastly to my eyes, about to take a bite out of Ireland? I think I might call this beast THE BREXIT BEAST as it clearly wants to take Ireland with it.

arpegeuk-16-69-0.png

Edited by geordiekev
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
26 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Well  well compared to 12Z the 18Z has the cold spell reduced to a snap all but over by late Monday ,beast 2 if you can call it that now to a least but 2 and a half day circus than a show which this time around as a result the models over the last 5 days have been a complete sham and a waste of our time ,even the AO has gone from staying mainly negative to a strengthening positive in 2 days 

Impossible for anyone to forecast beyond 3 days under current farcical model performance, in fact if tonights pub run is mirrored at 00Z and 06Z then it's becoming beyond laughable it's becoming an outrage that these so called state of the art systems can be taken that seriously beyond 3 days let alone 5 ,sad but true,and killing any weather forum discussions before they can get started 

This week has put model discussion at new lowest depths ,and proof that even in these days of  up to date technology we still aren't any better off seeing into the future than we were 20 years ago, strange:wallbash::fool:

Lol the models have forecasting this for quite some time, it was picked up on earlier this week, only microscale changes to the overall pattern so to call it a circus is OTT and to call it a waste of time is baffling.

Impossible to forecast beyond 3 days? The trend for next week has been set in stone for quite some time. Just minor changes highlight differences in snow potential and because that's what people look out for they will highlight those changes, making the models look worse then usual. The ability for the models to pick up on the easterlies this month well in advance has been superb.

I think the model discussion this week has been great. Forecasting is getting far better, the 1987 easterly for example I don't think was picked up on until a very short time in advance. The second beast started to be picked up on late last week. So why shouldn't we take models and weather forecasting seriously? Should we just give up altogether and not bother? With that attitude we would still be living in caves.

As for ARPEGE that didnt do well with the last easterly and the dewpoints on the 18z go off on one considering its a continental airsource. 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
19 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Well  well compared to 12Z the 18Z has the cold spell reduced to a snap all but over by late Monday ,beast 2 if you can call it that now to a least but 2 and a half day circus than a show which this time around as a result the models over the last 5 days have been a complete sham and a waste of our time ,even the AO has gone from staying mainly negative to a strengthening positive in 2 days 

Impossible for anyone to forecast beyond 3 days under current farcical model performance, in fact if tonights pub run is mirrored at 00Z and 06Z then it's becoming beyond laughable it's becoming an outrage that these so called state of the art systems can be taken that seriously beyond 3 days let alone 5 ,sad but true,and killing any weather forum discussions before they can get started 

This week has put model discussion at new lowest depths ,and proof that even in these days of  up to date technology we still aren't any better off seeing into the future than we were 20 years ago, strange:wallbash::fool:

why don't u try some other hobby.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
32 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Well  well compared to 12Z the 18Z has the cold spell reduced to a snap all but over by late Monday ,beast 2 if you can call it that now to a least but 2 and a half day circus than a show which this time around as a result the models over the last 5 days have been a complete sham and a waste of our time ,even the AO has gone from staying mainly negative to a strengthening positive in 2 days 

Impossible for anyone to forecast beyond 3 days under current farcical model performance, in fact if tonights pub run is mirrored at 00Z and 06Z then it's becoming beyond laughable it's becoming an outrage that these so called state of the art systems can be taken that seriously beyond 3 days let alone 5 ,sad but true,and killing any weather forum discussions before they can get started 

This week has put model discussion at new lowest depths ,and proof that even in these days of  up to date technology we still aren't any better off seeing into the future than we were 20 years ago, strange:wallbash::fool:

Nothing’s changed all we have seen is the aim of attack change, and it’s trended more positively nationwide to be snow bearing, ever since last Sunday when it first become apparent, it’s never looked anything more than a weekend event so you’re off there - and as a matter of fact the cold snaps duration and snow window has increased a little. Do make sure you know what your post is right, as it comes across as a lot of baloney. Your point is even more redundant with the last beast picked up some day 10 plus in advance, models are improving I’ve noticed. And on your logic let’s just shut down this thread as the models, frankly don’t know anything? And only engage in short term model thread that is a way of reducing / silencing discussion. 

Edited by Daniel*
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...