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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Please only post model discussion in here! 
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Looks good for prolonging the cold:)

ECH1-72.GIF?15-0

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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 48

The whole country under -10 or below air...

BC1640A5-337C-4857-BFCD-B5A073DFE39C.thumb.png.e4c63fa9cf2863c254a3014ddfcbb4e7.png

Not sure if I am reading this wrong, but the whole country certainly isn't under -10 air? The south coast, as well as SW UK and wales? Happy to be corrected.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Great to see the Gfs 12z showing further cold weather after the latest Beast with arctic incursions bringing further snow..loving this extension to winter!:cold-emoji::D

As well as the infamous "your kids won't know snow" prediction which seemed reasonable for a few years until it was blown out of the water from the winters of 2008-09 onwards, I also remember lots of "Spring is arriving earlier and earlier" reports in the early years of the noughties.

Having had an extremely cold start to March, the models are now showing us an immediate  potential for a very cold middle march and some potential for a cold end to March.

Considering this is all happening within five years of experiencing the coldest march for 50 years, i wonder if this will be another readjustment to the thinking of what the consequences of climate change will be? 

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5 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Not sure if I am reading this wrong, but the whole country certainly isn't under -10 air? The south coast, as well as SW UK and wales? Happy to be corrected.

I think its a case if your splitting hairs -

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

72 hours on ECM showing -3 to -6 uppers across the south on Sunday. Sleet rather than snow across the south if this was to happen! 

Screenshot_20180315-182246.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I think its a case if your splitting hairs -

 

Lessons in rabbit bisection available here!:good:

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2 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

72 hours on ECM showing -3 to -6 uppers across the south on Sunday. Sleet rather than snow across the south if this was to happen! 

Screenshot_20180315-182246.png

Quite a mild outlier against UKMO / GFS / JMA blend-

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

72 hours on ECM showing -3 to -6 uppers across the south on Sunday. Sleet rather than snow across the south if this was to happen! 

Screenshot_20180315-182246.png

Under cloud after a cold night it would not be as simple you make it out to be. It snowed with 0 850hPa last cold spell.

Edited by MattTarrant
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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
Just now, MattTarrant said:

Under cloud after a cold night it would not be as simple you make it out to be. It snowed with 0 850hPa last cold spell. 

But that was after a week of entrenched cold with lows of -15 in places and several days of minus 10-15 uppers. Also, given the sun is stronger and its been so mild lately, that would no doubt be of sleet or cold rain rather than snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
18 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

As well as the infamous "your kids won't know snow" prediction which seemed reasonable for a few years until it was blown out of the water from the winters of 2008-09 onwards, I also remember lots of "Spring is arriving earlier and earlier" reports in the early years of the noughties.

Having had an extremely cold start to March, the models are now showing us an immediate  potential for a very cold middle march and some potential for a cold end to March.

Considering this is all happening within five years of experiencing the coldest march for 50 years, i wonder if this will be another readjustment to the thinking of what the consequences of climate change will be? 

I think perhaps some of the naive reporting in earlier years stated certain things would be consigned to the past (ie it wont snow again) were clearly rubbish but made for a good headline when in fact the reality was different.

I've always thought we would get cold snowy spells into the future. Cut off the warm supply of air from the Atlantic and the continent will start to chill if the AMOC slows. Globally though? well the extra heat remains and if we are to go in the direction of colder winters then I think this will bottle up the warm air in the tropics and lead the arctic more prone to warm air advection. March's global temperature anomalies so far will hopefully show what I mean.

ANOM2m_pastMTH_equir.png 
GTA: 0.29C, a bit down on last year with ENSO helping out. Warm anomalies over Africa Asia and NE Canada/Alaska more then cancelling out the cold but as this shows the UK can still have temperatures well below normal.

And if things get anomalously warmer to our south this maybe could result in deeper channel lows and heavier snowfall events?

Anyway regionally (more mid latitudes) - yes it may be difficult to call late-Autumn to early spring trends given the continent will shiver. In turn though maybe hotter summers if the Atlantic moderates things less. Globally however the heat remains, it may not be distributed as evenly like what those headlines assumed.

Sorry if this is dragging things off topic here, just thought I'd put in my thoughts. Happy to discuss this further in the climate thread. :)

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

Trust me there will be no marginality on Sunday wrt snow. Check out the DP's before making any conclusions. With a continental feed, 850's below 0 and DP's below 0 it will be snow 

Edited by JamesL
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Fax charts out, all I can say is wow! That T72 chart looks like a lot of snow for the South as that little low moves up from France.:shok:

fax48s.gif

fax60s.gif

fax72s.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

But that was after a week of entrenched cold with lows of -15 in places and several days of minus 10-15 uppers. Also, given the sun is stronger and its been so mild lately, that would no doubt be of sleet or cold rain rather than snow.

Have a look at the met office warning. That’ll give a good indication of their thoughts as to whether it’ll rain in the south 

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
Just now, snowking said:

Trolling at its finest

With a shallow surface flow and sub zero dewpoints I don't think there's much concern about sleet away from perhaps the immediate coastline 

Im discussing the models in a model discussion thread. Hardly trolling!

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
13 minutes ago, Timmytour said:


Considering this is all happening within five years of experiencing the coldest march for 50 years, i wonder if this will be another readjustment to the thinking of what the consequences of climate change will be? 

Have our judgements all of a sudden been clouded by one cold March? Perhaps we need reminding how exceptionally warm the last one was...

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Fax charts out, all I can say is wow! That T72 chart looks like a lot of snow for the South as that little low moves up from France.:shok:

fax48s.gif

fax60s.gif

fax72s.gif

Plus that’s a lot of hours with streamers in the same place for the SE and across the wash. Somewhere could get a lot based on these charts 

Edited by c00ps
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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Im discussing the models in a model discussion thread. Hardly trolling!

No - you need to look at the facts before posting. When I read your post the first thing I thought was you were trolling!! Seemingly I wasn’t alone 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Proper Thames streamer on those fax charts, not just a north Kent steamer it seems. Plus a Wash streamer setting up.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Plus that’s a lot of hours with streamers in the same place for the SE and across the wash. Somewhere could get a lot based on these charts 

Yes indeed. In fact this now looks like the perfect Thames streamer par excellence, upper wind direction is the perfect ENEly not the NEly that had been showing on some runs. Direct hit for London might be on the cards here, the Wash streamer could produce a lot of snow too.

D3 though, what could possibly go wrong?:rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
3 minutes ago, danm said:

Proper Thames streamer on those fax charts, not just a north Kent steamer it seems. Plus a Wash streamer setting up.

Agreed it looks west of north Kent on a more ENE so that’s a Thames streamer rather than north Kent one from a NE wind. Prob just west of here as we get hit by north Kent streamer normally. The difference a change in wind direction makes 

Edited by c00ps
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