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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, Interitus said:

1991 followed very shortly after a minor warming which was the probable cause (very close similarities to 2012)

1996/1997 followed a Canadian warming in Nov/Dec 1996 - probably related

1987 cold weather followed SSW on Jan 23th, it's just that the extreme cold occurred prior to the SSW.

2013 cold in January most likely related to SSW on the 6th. However for the March event 2 months later it is unlikely that the SSW was the direct cause.

(Better continued on strat thread?)

 

Difficult to tell with some of them isn't it? especially when you consider not all respond on the same timescales.

Minor events have been overlooked in my research, mainly because the only chronological timeline of SSW events I've found is in this paper.

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

Which I presume classed 1996 as a minor.

But yeah feel free to discuss in the strat thread with me as its still something I'm learning about :)

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
5 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

That top chart with the 850s  is a kick in the teeth for us snow starved Surrey residents - what happened to the upper cold pool with really low 500 mb temps ? 

Why is it a kick in the teeth? Dewpoints are well below freezing, air is more unstable and maxima struggles to get above freezing on Sunday presumably because southern areas are under cloud cover and intermittent/persistent snow.

I could be in one of the best areas if the 12z GFS comes off, especially if the channel streamers alligns to also hit Southampton. The 500mb cold pool is still there.

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey

It shows less cold uppers over a large swathe of south east at a time when previous runs have shown them to be much lower was hoping for better ! I can’t see sub zero maxima with uppers of -8 even if it’s cloudy esp as no embedded cold already 

Edited by Badgers01
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Incredible Arpege run this afternoon, after looking the driest run earlier, its now wall to wall snowfall. :D

Meanwhile ICON has taken its place for doing the dirty dry run.:laugh:

arpegeeur-2-42.png

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arpegeeur-2-57.png

arpegeeur-2-66.png

arpegeeur-2-75.png

arpegeeur-2-78.png

arpegeeur-2-81.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A shift north of the high over the UK at T96 hrs on the UKMO output . The high is more separated from the Azores high , the longer it takes for those two link up the slower it will be to lose the colder air.

Comparing that to yesterdays to T120hrs and the snow potential is extended a little more.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Seriously though, snowfall is really all over the place on the models this afternoon.

The one certainty I think is - there will be snowfall in lots of places!!

But apart from a few favoured spots, it's like a snow gun being shot from a rather unsteady hand!!

Nowcasts galore coming up this weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife

As we are heading towards the second half of March it could be thought that any snow falling would fail to settle. However wet bulb temperature is a good way to determine if falling snow will settle. Taking a Buch of averages from the south east, 2m temperature, relative humidity, SLP, dew point and firing it into the calculator the wet bulb temp looks good for the south east. Average -2 for the times of shown precipitation on Arpege / WRF / Hirlam.  Anything below zero is what your looking for.

Dew points can be found on meteociel Arpege 0.1 called "point rosee" 

A link to the calculator is attached.

5aaaa5922b272_ScreenShot2018-03-15at16_55_21.thumb.png.b77e08b94794bdff7f95bdb2a04e471f.png

Wet bulb temperature calculator

https://www.weather.gov/epz/wxcalc_rh

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
40 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

That top chart with the 850s  is a kick in the teeth for us snow starved Surrey residents - what happened to the upper cold pool with really low 500 mb temps ? 

It runs through on Saturday, not sunday

It is showing a bit further north in some models but I suspect that allows the frontal snowfall to reach you - I know which I would prefer.......

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The raw UKMO output pushes some snow nw in towards the south coast by lunchtime Sunday . 

The sweet spot in terms of heaviest is Isle of Wight nw towards Bournemouth and ne towards Portsmouth around 50 miles inland.

This part of the forecast is the subject of disagreements between the models so don’t shoot me if this changes ! :D

I should say the overall precip forecast for the majority of the UK is pretty good, it certainly isn’t a dry easterly  

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Great to see the Gfs 12z showing further cold weather after the latest Beast with arctic incursions bringing further snow..loving this extension to winter!:cold-emoji::D

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Posted
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Great to see the Gfs 12z showing further cold weather after the latest Beast with arctic incursions bringing further snow..loving this extension to winter!:cold-emoji::D

Just don't ask the plants and the farmers, Frosty... ?

It looks snowier now than 24h ago, that's for sure.

Edited by rain_shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

The EURO4 at T48 is further north than the GFS at the same time frame for the position of the high. A good window of opportunity exists and the models appear to be enhancing snowfall potential especially for the south.

Edited by Cheese Rice
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

The EURO4 at T48 is further north than the GFS at the same time frame for the position of the high. A good window of opportunity exists and the models appear to be enhancing snowfall potential especially for the south.

Yes although strange that despite that, the GFS still has the streamers lined up even further North than The Wash whereas the Euro4 around The Wash.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Heading into the distance, the chances on the next lw trough dropping to our west in the extended period seem to be increasing. That could throw up another ridge or wedge just to our ne if the sceuro trough is a little less defined over scandi 

something to keep em peeled for ...........

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The raw UKMO output pushes some snow nw in towards the south coast by lunchtime Sunday . 

The sweet spot in terms of heaviest is Isle of Wight nw towards Bournemouth and ne towards Portsmouth around 50 miles inland.

This part of the forecast is the subject of disagreements between the models so don’t shoot me if this changes ! :D

I should say the overall precip forecast for the majority of the UK is pretty good, it certainly isn’t a dry easterly  

Now that's a line that's as rare as rocking horse poo:D oh and I'm holding you to it:D

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 48

The whole country under -10 or below air...

BC1640A5-337C-4857-BFCD-B5A073DFE39C.thumb.png.e4c63fa9cf2863c254a3014ddfcbb4e7.png

That's a direct hit! All the wobbles regarding the main cold pool heading south seem to be dispelled.

 

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2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

That's a direct hit! All the wobbles regarding the main cold pool heading south seem to be dispelled.

 

yes much better overall although not quite so good for the far SE, but generally much better especially for the N & NE !

T72 the Upper lows heading out to Ireland bringing snow - @January Snowstorm 

Also this will impede the ridging of the azores high & may prolong the cold....

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