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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
45 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:

Yes huge upgrade on overnight runs with UKMO, Argepe and GEM all moving cold pool through spine of UK and Ireland. This is what ICON has been showing for days and this model remains steadfast over night. GFS also further north  compared  to last few runs but not as good as other models. Over now to ECM ..... 

 

Edit: All models showing brisk east to northeast winds so snow showers blowing well inland....

ECM also says BINGO

Screenshot_20180315-060918.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Interestingly the cold pool has moved further north, so even SE Scotland could be back in the snow zone.

In fact it is so much farther north on the UKMO and ARGEPE that the SE is no longer in the coldest zone, and on the ARGEPE it is less affected by snow than areas further north.

ECM maintains main snow focus for south.

But I'm still awaiting the HIRLAM, which will start picking up on the event tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interestingly the cold pool has moved further north, so even SE Scotland could be back in the snow zone.

In fact it is so much farther north on the UKMO and ARGEPE that the SE is no longer in the coldest zone, and on the ARGEPE it is less affected by snow than areas further north.

ECM maintains main snow focus for south.

But I'm still awaiting the HIRLAM, which will start picking up on the event tonight.

Euro4 good as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Easterly flow over weekend snow showers for most England and Wales looking sweet spot...:rofl::D and also ecm and ukmo go for that to Scotland manly dry..

4D68635F-2483-42C6-A868-AB944D554A51.png

Edited by abbie123
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Model fatigue at the end of the season? Ecm has this at t72 and there's one post:D. If it was December there would be 10 pages. Remarkable for day time temp max in Bournemouth of 1/2c and snow showers in winter let alone halfway through March!

IMG_0716.PNG

There seems to be a 'bump' in the isobars in this chart.  Wouldn't this normally indicate a front?  

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Whilst the HIRLAM isnt quite in range for the full beast - Sat 00z is already showing a lot of snow for the North & NE in a strong SE flow-

0CD67F0F-6033-4181-893B-9F7B3E2DD4AC.thumb.png.774c05e3c43e4eaf83d243a927515f6d.png

Yeah Steve keeping a close eye on this front will be very slow moving and if it keeps up its intensity as the cold air spills in from the east could a good snow event for the north. HIRLAM was the best performing short range model in the last beast so looking good.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended shows the high sinking back south allowing low pressure to move in and become unsettled 

ukm2.2018032200.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Unlike the previous spell, temperatures look like rising quite quickly after Sunday- this is looking like a short but very potent cold spell for the time of year (or any time of year for that matter).

According to the GFS, a number of places will be back in double figures by midweek:

GFSOPUK00_159_17.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still disagreements with where the coldest air hits and surprised no ones mentioned the fax charts!

That more persistent snow I alluded to last night in the Channel has edged further north. :)

The models do disagree on that aswell so still quite a lot of uncertainty with the smaller scale features.

Indeed Nick, the ECM has been toying with this on and off for the last few days making landfall across the South

The 0z does bring a spell of (albeit fairly light) snowfall for much of southern England through into Sunday

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
56 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Whilst the HIRLAM isnt quite in range for the full beast - Sat 00z is already showing a lot of snow for the North & NE in a strong SE flow-

0CD67F0F-6033-4181-893B-9F7B3E2DD4AC.thumb.png.774c05e3c43e4eaf83d243a927515f6d.png

It's not the only one

arpegeuk-1-48-0.png?15-05   nmmuk-1-48-0.png?15-07  18031700_1500.gif  

Uppers already close to minus 10C!!

18031700_1500.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still disagreements with where the coldest air hits and surprised no ones mentioned the fax charts!

That more persistent snow I alluded to last night in the Channel has edged further north. :)

The models do disagree on that aswell so still quite a lot of uncertainty with the smaller scale features.

Oh yes, I will be keeping a very watchful eye on the feature in the channel Nick ? Plenty of time for revisions in its ultimate placement yet (both good and bad).

It could be one heck of a winter finale for many and will cement 2018 as the new addition to the sequence 1978,1979,1981,1982,1984,1985,1986,1987,1991,1996,2005,2009,2010,2013,.... (I know that list is somewhat subjective ?)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still disagreements with where the coldest air hits and surprised no ones mentioned the fax charts!

That more persistent snow I alluded to last night in the Channel has edged further north. :)

The models do disagree on that aswell so still quite a lot of uncertainty with the smaller scale features.

Indeed, still differences between the big 3 models over the track of the 500mb low / cold pool Saturday and Sunday. This upper low will help enhance snow shower activity Saturday night and Sunday morning by creating steeper lapse rates, large scale ascent and will create lower pressure at the surface and pull in more moisture over the UK the further north it is.

Remember UKMO had the 500mb low (blue blob) tracking much further south over France on recent runs, 00z has it over Wales 00z Sunday! 00z GFS furthest south and slower, EC in between.

F00392A0-FAB2-4F34-BF19-E3A8CCAC048C.thumb.png.14d2396402c917f114b15334e7e457f7.png UKMO 7DF05F9B-EDC0-4868-BC5C-981AED9FF0E0.thumb.png.9ec9758dd0b2af5d0b612691c8a8a0e8.png EC

2196B180-5503-40D1-8749-044157B866AD.thumb.png.1cca6faa6e4ff6ae13ceaaf111c55b69.png GFS

A look at the EC 500mb and precip charts, one can see snowfall enhanced by the upper low passage

DBBF6F19-C1AA-4A8F-AAAE-7818701D1F19.thumb.png.f88c254971a09731ebc927ce87599a7d.png1E77A725-460F-4BC8-AF62-FD7374F574F5.thumb.jpeg.053e671637a74f0978fba2b27ba35486.jpeg Sun 00z

F080CC6A-08C9-4AE6-A44D-5CB985F125D0.thumb.png.5e028ab57e24f202604d89b9094a2513.png3CC88874-C87A-4EE9-A489-23A4F122B645.thumb.jpeg.540f977557600a055b94ddd8a78ba2e6.jpegSun 06z

but still a way to go to see where and when there will be potential for some heavy and peristent snowfall, given differences between models.

 

 

 

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Arpege 00z gives a max snow depth of 88cm of snow for higher ground in eastern Scotland by 06z Monday

snowdepth_102.thumb.jpg.0418ca848a56284bf7b6721cfe8273bf.jpg

For England and Wales the max depth is shown to be 35cm over the Pennines with 2cm to 3cm quite widely at lower levels

snowdepth_102345345.thumb.jpg.febc24d6d17a001eb4ac6505df338cd5.jpg 

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton

Next to nothing for the West Mids then, not worth anticipating much this weekend, there wasn't a huge fall two weeks ago, so anything that does fall will be seen as a bonus (if anybody is hoping and expecting for some snowfall that is!).

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Arpege 00z gives a max snow depth of 88cm of snow for higher ground in eastern Scotland by 06z Monday

snowdepth_102.thumb.jpg.0418ca848a56284bf7b6721cfe8273bf.jpg

For England and Wales the max depth is shown to be 35cm over the Pennines with 2cm to 3cm quite widely at lower levels

snowdepth_102345345.thumb.jpg.febc24d6d17a001eb4ac6505df338cd5.jpg 

I don't like the look of that big dry spot across the central Midlands, though I think I'm actually to the west of that. Hopefully that's wrong still.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Whilst the HIRLAM isnt quite in range for the full beast - Sat 00z is already showing a lot of snow for the North & NE in a strong SE flow-

0CD67F0F-6033-4181-893B-9F7B3E2DD4AC.thumb.png.774c05e3c43e4eaf83d243a927515f6d.png

This snow should move SW into Saturday morning as the front clears. However how much activity is left on the front is uncertain.

fax48s.gif?1fax60s.gif?1

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM 00z shows milder air moving in during the mid to latter part of next week

ECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.b65b07d6a60a33147f83f6711a0787d1.pngECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.7a1970710260c177ff9f0f5b42f1cf61.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.b320fa46a84e3c88e6ec6dc72983887f.png

By the end of the week, temps fall a bit again as low pressure closes in

ECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.0d6242d2de58a8001180d10df165a1b7.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.783d751927ca6b138441aa83c393995b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

This (South of the England) upper low is persistently showing it's self on every run nudging it's way further north.

The 'BBC news 24' graphics now have wide spread ppn on Sunday for England & Wales 

  gfs-12-66_ygd8.png

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