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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ... half the country in the minus 12/13 uppers by midday Saturday. North to South. Done deal??

 

What a good winter this has been. :D oh and spring!!

IMG_0713.PNG

IMG_0714.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM T96: Minus 10 uppers for all except north Highlands. Still minus 12/13c down south. 500mb Cold pool has pushed through but looks bigger than before, probably engulfed the whole of England/Wales on Saturday night.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So from a brief look at the models before leaving work, it seems the position is:

ICON upgrade

GFS upgrade

UKMO significant upgrade

GEM upgrade

ARPEGE not so good, sinks the high early Monday.

So my interest in this spell is renewed, certainly.

i'm still struck by the depth of cold reaching the UK, GFS has -14C or -15C at T90:

gfs-1-90.png?12

Maybe worth noting how cold the North Sea actually is at the moment:

sstuk.gif

We await the ECM with interest.

Paul Hudson mentioned how cold North sea is last night, I don't think I've known it to be this cold for a very long time, in previous years I've noticed its got down to around 7'C.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM T120: upper instability has gone, but still going to be very cold with uppers minus 7 to minus 10. No breakdown from the south this time!

Can we get a trough out of Saturday/Sunday? Situation looks favourable to me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Still a cold breeze/wind on Monday virtually all of England and Wales under -7 850's at least a few in the SW see -10

ECM t120

ECU1-120.GIF.thumb.png.90811dca3240b89c25d06d6463c39ef0.pngECU0-120.GIF.thumb.png.383fc790d3410dabe04836ee4d2ff2fd.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
40 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So does that include the weekend or say upto Friday? 

Your cold extension threshold is quite high . :D

 

Lol up until saturday.... for now :D

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Midweek sees the nagging wind getting cut off allowing some less cold air to slowly move in still chilly but temps probably up a bit (still below the seasonal average)

ECU1-168.GIF.thumb.png.48b23fb6ff9dce6bf35a0a7a8bda6092.pngECU0-168.GIF.thumb.png.6c634a8a38a2d86358ad30472f4bb212.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Some slightly milder air in the south but colder air returns for the north as the high sinks south towards the end of next week

ECU1-192.GIF.thumb.png.29cdc6043560dca02928148d550ffdc7.pngECU0-192.GIF.thumb.png.1dd85e56050f14204bb1d09feabc3bb9.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So it looks like around two days of convection Saturday into Sunday , perhaps a touch longer in the far se and then drier but still cold on the ECM for Monday and Tuesday.

Plenty of time for some good snow totals and then sledging for the lucky areas. :)

If this is to be winters last hurrah then at least it goes out with a bang .

 

Not sure a bang is what is on the cards Nick unless there is some serious convection achieved. Just looks cold to me with a covering in specific areas, i.e. somewhere around the Wash and Kent. Dusting at best for central Anglia.

Please correct me if you find that wrong (at this stage).

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

JMA is the only model from 12z runs that doesn't get the -8 850's into central Scotland

J84-7.thumb.GIF.8e4f56af5b0864e69be34bbe5962367e.GIFJ96-7.thumb.GIF.168f9ee868fd0f7d6a31e16b236ae47a.GIFJ108-7.thumb.GIF.373bb820b58815626365575b82a0a469.GIF

J84-21.thumb.GIF.ba1cce16d27b5a257eea5a648dbdcf10.GIFJ96-21.thumb.GIF.78637930e15307aa62079b207c1de947.GIFJ108-21.thumb.GIF.5835baea02121376dc7e80318229def8.GIF

Given all the others have shifted the high further north you'd think the odds on JMA flipping to this by tomorrow would be quite high

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

For this time of year, these charts are incredible from the Ecm 12z and there could be some disruptive snow out of this, especially across the south, almost unheard of to get 2 Beasts within such a short space of time..enjoy it coldies!:):cold:

72_thickuk.png

72_mslp850uk.png

72_mslp850.png

96_thickuk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

96_thick.png

96_mslp850.png

120_thickuk.png

120_mslp850uk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Very welcome northward adjustments on most of the main players on the 12z runs. Perfect easterly hit this Saturday running into Sunday. This should create some significant convection. Just hope the colder than normal north sea doesn't temper things too much. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
10 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not sure a bang is what is on the cards Nick unless there is some serious convection achieved. Just looks cold to me with a covering in specific areas, i.e. somewhere around the Wash and Kent. Dusting at best for central Anglia.

Please correct me if you find that wrong (at this stage).

As with convection it can be be hit and miss . There is a possibility though of some streamers setting up which means lucky areas could be under a constant stream of showers.

Troughs etc we’ll have to wait till nearer the time. It really  depends on strength of the flow and direction , depth of cold etc.

Once within T48 hours things will be clearer. 

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44 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes ^^ Snow cold & instability extends from early doors Sat to Late Sunday-

More than enough time for inches of snow to fall

Entry point smoothes to around Suffolk / North Kent of the core - Circa 2009 Feb...

Yes it's not bad for time of year but as I have said before the models are crap at predictING cold weather charts beyond 5 days 

3 days ago they predicted high pressure blocking to our NE ,then being replaced by another to our NO pulling N,NE winds for the second half of next week  now they are going for the Scandinavian high to sink southwestard bringing a much short end cold spell of 3 days max ,unbelievable, and to top it all the AO today is now going to go plus 2 positive by mid next week,a bad day and if you wanted a last extended cold spell  but a good day for looking forward to hopefully a snowy weekend  for most 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO extended has low pressure a bit closer by at t168 thus increasing the chances of some rain in the west

ukm2.2018032112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.35b5fa73eab1e978daba25fdefd1d854.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So it looks like around two days of convection Saturday into Sunday , perhaps a touch longer in the far se and then drier but still cold on the ECM for Monday and Tuesday.

Plenty of time for some good snow totals and then sledging for the lucky areas. :)

If this is to be winters last hurrah then at least it goes out with a bang .

 

But the GFS Control run may have a bang aftershock to follow at the end of the month Nick.

image.thumb.png.000a1fb25806080bd892a2afbf9eeaa9.png

:laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Quick comparison of the ECM op and ensemble mean at T96:

ECM1-96.GIF?14-0

EDM1-96.GIF

Ens mean looks to have the high a little further north so I think in the round the 12s upgrade the cold snap and the potential for snow.  Will be interesting to follow this over the next couple of days to see what transpires at the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
6 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Life in the middle of the snow IMG_0467.thumb.PNG.faeb9d07642070bce30356edb344d45d.PNG

Arpege 12z shows a gap as well obviously impossible to take this overly seriosuly this far out

snowdepth_102.thumb.jpg.c23d4489b06f4f418c65279c683ea4e2.jpg

 

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