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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Please only post model discussion in here! 
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

No, starting to look like a non event (snow wise) for northern England if GFS and UKMO are anywhere near correct.

UW96-21.GIF?13-16gfs-0-96.png?12


GFS a non event? Even the rather poor ability of the GFS is gunning for a streamer over NE England on Sunday.

Have people learnt nothing from the last 'dry easterly' we had at the start of the month?

You wouldn't think -15Chpa would be over SE England in late March going by the tone of some posts....

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Low a bit further north at t120 on UKMO might increase the snow chances for the south

UW120-21.thumb.GIF.2c2df066ef6d261ec5157d7ff6569933.GIF

Always the risk of the High sinking with that much energy over the top of Scandi.

Southern areas still looking beastly, northern areas, well, a lot of ensembles went north with the main cold pool this morning so I don't think we're done on the detail yet

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Signs of some kinks in the flow on he models

statements such as ‘further south so snow chance gone for the north’ are innacurate

last time the closest area to the ridge was Scotland ...............

I know the cold pool struck there but nevertheless one can’t assume anything 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

By the time we get to T114 the differences between the 06z and 12z run are even less.

gfs-0-114.png?12gfs-0-120.png?6

A lot of bed wetting going on in here! :rofl:

No, its just commenting on the output, theres nothing wrong with that, also look at the changes since the 0z GFS, its doing its usual inch by inch southward correction, Icon and GEM still possible - within the envelope but at the Northern end of the spread.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Just now, frosty ground said:

By the time we get to T114 the differences between the 06z and 12z run are even less.

gfs-0-114.png?12gfs-0-120.png?6

A lot of bed wetting going on in here! :rofl:

What are you talking about?

The 06z was already a correction South and a non event for Northern England, the 12z is no better.

The UKMO is much worse.

UN120-21.GIF?13-17 

I don't know about bed wetting but plenty of verbal diarrhoea coming from your end.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO 12z 850's have -8s up to about northern England on Sunday with -12s more restricted to the south

UW96-7.thumb.GIF.8113f578d767de72563ea711aba3b6c0.GIFUW120-7.thumb.GIF.2700d858ca02adfe5d3c76c03e9cb4c0.GIF

Coldest air has gone south by Monday

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.51bcb73abb5bdeeb8501bb6325986f2b.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:


GFS a non event? Even the rather poor ability of the GFS is gunning for a streamer over NE England on Sunday.

Have people learnt nothing from the last 'dry easterly' we had at the start of the month?

You wouldn't think -15Chpa would be over SE England in late March going by the tone of some posts....

It was essentially a dry Easterly for my region.

I am just calling what the charts show, it isn't  my problem if people can't read them or have reading comprehension issues.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

Seem to remember UKMO managed to scare us a few times by overblowing the high in the run up to Beast 1. Time for corrections/upgrades next few days. GFS meanwhile looks awful. :rofl:

12_114_ukthickness850.thumb.png.de4d03dea1a6b14475beae2f5514a2e7.png 

Case in point, GFS has moved the high slightly further north in the latest run. 06 vs 12z.

gfs-0-156.thumb.png.ba61775282401094ae0b421d188e07cb.pnggfs-0-150.thumb.png.2adde17eaab8b0566032f23dbe9e726a.png

Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

What are you talking about?

The 06z was already a correction South and a non event for Northern England, the 12z is no better.

The UKMO is much worse.

UN120-21.GIF?13-17 

I don't know about bed wetting but plenty of verbal diarrhoea coming from your end.

That's a bit strong :rofl:

I am commenting on the GFS, the GFS has moved north by T126 when compared to the 06z..... So it's not moving inch by inch is it?

The Raw UKM data has light snow for my northern location all day saturday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well my missus will be happy if we see nowt over the weekend so folk in the south enjoy!!

Sunday is my ( and my Son's) birthday so we can have some pretty showers then if you like?

As it is I think we will see things shifted ever more South as we near T zero?

Just a question of wrapping up from the raw winds for the North!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

That's a bit strong :rofl:

I am commenting on the GFS, the GFS has moved north by T126 when compared to the 06z..... So it's not moving inch by inch is it?

The Raw UKM data has light snow for my northern location all day saturday. 

How do you know that ??

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

It was essentially a dry Easterly for my region.

I am just calling what the charts show, it isn't  my problem if people can't read them or have reading comprehension issues.

 

Well you are calling it incorrectly, it was hardly a dry easterly for nothern England was it? try telling people in Scotland or Northern England that. Yes with streamers you are going to see variations but NIMBY variations shouldn't be used to extrpolate a picture for a whole broad region.

To call the GFS a non event snow wise for the north is just plain wrong. Especially when troughs and instability in the flow haven't been picked out yet. Maybe add more detail and stats to back up your claims?

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It was essentially a dry Easterly for my region.

I am just calling what the charts show, it isn't  my problem if people can't read them or have reading comprehension issues.

 

That's because you live directly to the west of the Pennines aka one of the most protected areas from an easterly. Areas much further North than you got tonnes of snow.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It was essentially a dry Easterly for my region.

I am just calling what the charts show, it isn't  my problem if people can't read them or have reading comprehension issues.

 

You said north not north west
gfs-2-120.png?12

GFS PPN chart to be taken with a lorry load of salt 06z 0z and 18z also.

gfs-2-126.pnggfs-2-132.png
gfs-2-138.png

looks like the 0z was a  little out of kilter with the last 4 runs. 

Maybe its just standar variation 

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, its just commenting on the output, theres nothing wrong with that, also look at the changes since the 0z GFS, its doing its usual inch by inch southward correction, Icon and GEM still possible - within the envelope but at the Northern end of the spread.

Your comment was it is a bad start to the 12z..... at that point the GFS was only out to 90 hours. The GFS has corrected northwards as i have shown on some other posts.

Now the Cold may well end up in France, but guess what? the GFS does not show that yet, it doesn't even show it moving south in comparison to to 06z run. So you are not commenting on what you see, you where guessing and you guessed wrong. 

We had this on the last easterly, the high is sinking south run after run, when in actual fact it wasn't. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
17 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That's a bit strong :rofl:

I am commenting on the GFS, the GFS has moved north by T126 when compared to the 06z..... So it's not moving inch by inch is it?

The Raw UKM data has light snow for my northern location all day saturday. 

 

It was but if you are going to call a reasonable analysis bed wetting what can you expect in return?

Where did I say it was worse than the 06z?

I commented that if. and it's still a big if, UKMO and GFS are on the right track then it will be a non event for Northern England as far as snow is concerned.

I didn't say it won't be cold, it certainly will be and it is an amazing synoptic for time of year but other than a very short window of opportunity in the NE there is very little chance of lying snow for anywhere away from the SE half of Britain, extending into some central regions.

I really wouldn't expect NE England to get lying snow form UKMO and unlikely even with GFS but that is arguable, North Western areas would have virtually no chance of lying snow.

Basically the further N and W you are away from the SE then the less likely you will see any snow falling let alone lying.

We can't compare this

AVN_1_2018030100_1.png

with this.

GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

When making assumptions about snowfall.

If I were in the SE I would be less bothered as there is far more wiggle room.

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.0b14aefea0c9ff9f289f07d0f49d774b.png

A high pressure dominated GEM if T108 is anything to go by :rofl:

We seem to have a bit of a stand off with the ICON, ARPEGE and GEM going for an easterly heading straight through the UK. The UKMO is less keen with high pressure slowly sinking SW whereas the GFS is a halfway house. The key is to get an extra bit of energy sinking south at around the T72 mark to nudge it slightly further north.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Your comment was it is a bad start to the 12z..... at that point the GFS was only out to 90 hours. The GFS has corrected northwards as i have shown on some other posts.

Now the Cold may well end up in France, but guess what? the GFS does not show that yet, it doesn't even show it moving south in comparison to to 06z run. So you are not commenting on what you see, you where guessing and you guessed wrong. 

We had this on the last easterly, the high is sinking south run after run, when in actual fact it wasn't:hi:

Look at last nights 18z, then the 0z, then the 6z, it is.

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