Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
Other options:
Model moans, ramps and banter
Regional discussions

For more focused short-range model discussion:
Short-range Model Discussion

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

All up for grabs after Tuesday it seems

image.thumb.png.32b310c83f029b0cce6f46f50741f1e2.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

All up for grabs after Tuesday it seems

image.thumb.png.32b310c83f029b0cce6f46f50741f1e2.png

 

I think this could be described as "To be confirmed" after Tuesday. Rare to see such a bizarre level of scatter...methinks the models are...struggling somewhat post 168 hrs

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 minute ago, JeffC said:

I think this could be described as "To be confirmed" after Tuesday. Rare to see such a bizarre level of scatter...methinks the models are...struggling somewhat post 168 hrs

I would say the theme for resurgent HLB and MLB will be the front runner for some time to come.

No PV over the dreaded area and a suppressed jet

ECH1-168.GIF?13-12

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
33 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

An upper Low forecast to head w/sw from Denmark Saturday into Sunday on ECM and GFS

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

180313_0000_120.png

Knocks doing a great job on the short range discussing this.

 

Ive got a feeling the heaviest PPN will be further south than this though and miss us, the EPS mean suggests this as the low heights look a bit shallower, there's still a chance though as a lot of op runs still go for it, either way now I think its nailed on somewhere in the UK will get significant snow as the UKMO now correcting in the Northwards direction and has dropped that hideous shortwave to the West of Ireland.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ive got a feeling the heaviest PPN will be further south than this though and miss us, the EPS mean suggests this as the low heights look a bit shallower, there's still a chance though as a lot of op runs still go for it, either way now I think its nailed on somewhere in the UK will get significant snow as the UKMO now correcting in the Northwards direction and has dropped that hideous shortwave to the West of Ireland.

Yes I should have added that the GFS was further south than this so lets hope the showers bring us what we want.

Then what do I know :)Instability the key once more

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=102&mode=1&map=300

Edited by winterof79
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO has virtually all of England, Wales and perhaps southern and eastern Scotland under -12 850's on Sunday 00z

5aa79fbc1bde6_GHT850_EUROPA_120.gif.thumb.png.37bfaff0b19de87d2bfd0d444d8a5567.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
11 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Spot on Nick.

Lets look at it this way. I class a decent spell of cold weather when temps struggle to get above freezing with a decent covering of snow. Now to expect this for just one day in mid March is expecting alot. This to occur for 2-3 days is very rare indeed.

Personally I shall just enjoy whatever arrives this weekend and couldn't careless whether the cold spell extends into next week. I know my Dahlia seedlings won't be happy with this cold spell!

 

Completely agree. 

To be getting these synoptics and depth of cold in mid to late March is exceptional. Solar energy will now be our friend and our foe. It will likely instigate convection further in land but it will also rapidly thaw any exposed lying snow even if temps and dew points are sub zero. John Hammond made a comment on one of his videos yesterday that surprised me actually -  solar energy is apparently now 50% stronger than it was just 2/3 weeks ago at the onset of the last freeze and any deep cold uppers will more quickly get modified by warmer air. 

So a potentially excellent cold snap/spell coming up but unlikely to last long without a further injection of deep cold. Which at this time of year is still excellent. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Cannot believe that we are seeing another son of the original beast coming straight for us! 

The way things are going, it could well be a spring known for fire and ice style setups. A balmy 15c to potential ice days. Wasn't 1975 a good example of wild swings? 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Cannot believe that we are seeing another son of the original beast coming straight for us! 

The way things are going, it could well be a spring known for fire and ice style setups. A balmy 15c to potential ice days. Wasn't 1975 a good example of wild swings? 

Spring 1975 was quite cold overall as far as I know, culminating in the snow at the start of June. Then we had a very good summer.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Well after that cold spell a couple weeks a ago I really thought that was it for cold snowy weather. The beast is back snow showers and cold easterly flow might not last but very impressive for the time of year and we can still get snow in April..

8A9A67B5-2137-4420-8D6F-57CEEB9F54D2.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

Well after that cold spell a couple weeks a ago I really thought that was it for cold snowy weather. The beast is back snow showers and cold easterly flow might not last but very impressive for the time of year and we can still get snow in April..

8A9A67B5-2137-4420-8D6F-57CEEB9F54D2.png

6Z not as good though away from the SE, much further South

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

6Z not as good though away from the SE, much further South

We had the exact same situation on the lead up to the last cold spell, and looked what happened. 

Until Thursday earliest we won't know for sure what will happen and even then we won't be looking at snow until Friday early Saturday morning a lot to get through before then 

The GFS is keen to have things further south but the run before was more north of that. The normal backwards and forwards needs to be expected across all models

 

Edited by Surrey
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

As always, wouldn’t take the precipitation charts too seriously this far out, particularly given some differences between GFS, EC and UKMO over track of 500mb low moving W or SW over the weekend and how quickly it does so, this upper low will likely be the trigger for more widespread snow showers or longer spells of snow moving west at some point, as it provides steeper lapse rates and large scale ascent.

00z EC quicker with the upper low than 00z/06z GFS, UKMO keeps the upper low over France

For 00z Sunday, 00z EC and 06z GFS

596C5E85-40D2-4011-AE26-F244F94C9256.thumb.png.c5bafa01aa2f07762b1eea75f06a98f0.png10ED2ABD-E354-4BE7-BECD-EEAEE5D54CC5.thumb.png.53e82f3b137ce6e200d9d0d13315f710.png

00z EC has widespread snow showers spreading west across parts of England and Wales Saturday night as the upper low moves through earlier and is across the SW by 00z Sun.

D89D7F86-DE73-4099-BB9E-9C76E2CE0C16.thumb.jpeg.db79afcc6837a467757c36801acef39a.jpeg

06z still has the upper low over the Low Countries at 00z Sunday, and doesn’t get the snow showers going inland until the afternoon 

5DE3B09D-95D9-41A0-8DF8-80643C511DD5.thumb.png.e6853de2a34358031aca8a2e70851ec5.png72EBAD24-8201-4BE6-B76A-F37A8A77698C.thumb.png.f89454bcebb551ec1fb5f9ab55854a0a.png

A look at the EPS spreads vs standard deviation for 00z EC high res suggests greater uncertainty surrounding the upper low 00z Sunday

FEFE9AB5-1D7C-4BCF-98F9-196E5AF1EF3A.thumb.png.6eb9313bf789f2534efd41d1c406a7f0.png

 

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Classic example here of how its nonsense to suggest you cant get potent continental feeds late in season, wouldn't take much change to deliver a big dumping of snow for Inland southern areas of the UK in - YES - nearly April.

gfsnh-1-384_xnx4.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

So it looks almost certain that the "beast" will hit this weekend.

But the unresolved question is - "where"?

The ECM ensembles this morning are split on the microdetail of this.

As a very rough estimate -

30% of runs emphasise the coldest weather for the north (we talking uppers of minus 12 to minus 16) - thought many of these drop the cold slowly south over the following 48 hours

40% have the coldest weather for the southern half

20% have deep cold just for the SE

10% miss altogether to the south

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Classic example here of how its nonsense to suggest you cant get potent continental feeds late in season, wouldn't take much change to deliver a big dumping of snow for Inland southern areas of the UK in - YES - nearly April.

gfsnh-1-384_xnx4.png

Crazy chart. If you looked at this chart not knowing the date, you would think it's mid winter not almost April! :cold-emoji:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Let's not forget NASA - carrying the freeze blaster torch for us!

image.thumb.png.8f612116e27414d651cff61064ed69a6.png

Anyway, the 06z GFS shows a good cold run pushing the v cold uppers a bit further south this time.

Thereafter a bit of a warm up and THEN - back into the freezer...

image.thumb.png.cff141bbc2f85e9d04afbeeedee3eec6.pngimage.thumb.png.497fec4dbe432a14c5b8a284f3d0730b.png

For a bitterly cold start to April??

:yahoo:

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 hours ago, bradythemole said:

Slightly stronger signal in EPS this morning for something to perhaps build out west day 10 and beyond? 

Now the clusters are out, they look far more amplified in the extended period that the mean/anomolys as these are skewed by a troughy Atlantic cluster and differing timings 

so, I would now agree that a notable mid Atlantic upper ridge is still a well supported extended period option 

the shorter term eps show that there is probably a 50/50 split around the op and something closer to ukmo 

thereafter, so many variations on a theme that you wouldn’t want to be anything other than vague - ie. staying cold with a continuing chance of wintry precip though more likely rain to lower levels and further south 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Perbatation 18 on the GFS in the best outcome for nationwide snowfall with a direct hit and very unstable air. All in all the GEFS is a mixed bag with some members having the coldest air just clipping the south.

Screenshot_20180313-112750.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Classic example here of how its nonsense to suggest you cant get potent continental feeds late in season, wouldn't take much change to deliver a big dumping of snow for Inland southern areas of the UK in - YES - nearly April.

gfsnh-1-384_xnx4.png

The USA is also well below average. A demonstration that you can get cold in North America and the UK at the same time!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...