Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[nick sussex]

Shame the UKMO had to spoil things with an underwhelming output not just for the easterly but moving forward that could phase energy and stop any northerly aswell.

I really would hold off any early celebrations as the UKMO is just about  the worst outcome possible from the set up.

Five star ingredients and the UKMO manages to deliver a spam fritter !

 

[Purga]

Seconds away - round 2!

Nick - UKMO isn't too bad though is it really...

Edited March 12, 2018 by Purga

[bluearmy]

i make it around 30% gefs are decent re the cold pool strike. whilst other members would be adequate re surface wintry conitions in jan/feb, mid march onwards requires something a bit more extreme.  I'm really not sure what to expect from the 12z ec. anything akin to its previous run or the 12z icon would be great but you could easily see it spew out something like the ukmo which would empty this place faster than a fart in a lift ! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Spring on hold!!!

control out in FL

The ecm coming up

Edited March 12, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, Purga said:

Nick - UKMO isn't too bad though is it really...

You can put lipstick on a spam fritter but it’s still a spam fritter! 

The UKMO compared to the others so far is poor. The cold pool diluted before it even gets to the UK and worries over shortwave energy to the nw phasing.

Let’s hope the ECM stays on board and the UKMO drops its output in the morning .

Edited March 12, 2018 by nick sussex

[feb1991blizzard]

We should have an idea about ECM direction of movement in about 4 minutes.

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We should have an idea about ECM direction of movement in about 4 minutes.

Looking good

better than the ukmo in comparison

Edited March 12, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

No issues with ECM so far.

[WalsallWeather123]

ECM T96 will not verify. Colder air will go further south into Europe if anything, not north like it's showing

[bluearmy]

sqeaky bum time but seems to be on accelerated timescale and close to icon for pattern at day 4

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh my word

it does look like a ducks backside though

 

 

Edited March 12, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Purga]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You can put lipstick on a spam fritter but it’s still a spam fritter! 

The UKMO compared to the others so far is poor. The cold pool diluted before it even gets to the UK and worries over shortwave energy to the nw phasing.

Let’s hope the ECM stays on board and the UKMO drops its output in the morning .

OK - this is more like it Nick

[SMU]

boom its a bullseye !

[Mike Poole]

ECM at T120 looks well on board to me, I think March 2018 will be remembered for a long time.  It does seem a bit unbelievable that we could get a cold pool direct hit twice in two weeks but hey you can get lucky like that on roulette too

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the ECM Saturday is looking very cold for the time of year

Temperatures will be barely above freezing for many. 

[ICE COLD]

ECM 120 = WALLOP ?

[bluearmy]

I reckon about 512 dam into lincs is the lowest at day 5. not too shabby for 17 march !

ends up with 516 dam cornwall to sw eire T138.  must be close to records if that were to verify ! 

Edited March 12, 2018 by bluearmy

[Nick L]

This evening's EC brings a snow event for the entirety of England and Wales on Saturday night. Good grief.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think if the ECM eps mean backs the op tonight then I'm going to call it nailed without the UKMO 0z, at least wrt snowy and bitter from Birmingham South and Eastwards anyhow and maybe still dryER for NW but bitterly cold for the most if not all of England - Brave I know but day 4 on ECM to really be significantly too far North - really???

[ICE COLD]

ECM 144 - that will do I suppose ?

[Allseasons-Si]

Trough ready to pounce from the north,great stuff this

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think if the ECM eps mean backs the op tonight then I'm going to call it nailed without the UKMO 0z, at least wrt snowy and bitter from Birmingham South and Eastwards anyhow and maybe still dryER for NW but bitterly cold for the most if not all of England - Brave I know but day 4 on ECM to really be significantly too far North - really???

That’s brave! Until the UKMO is on board then I’d be very cautious given its past history .

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM 144 - that will do I suppose ?

And a cheeky channel low for good measure 

[ICE COLD]

ECM 168 could be better ?

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That’s brave! Until the UKMO is on board then I’d be very cautious given its past history .

Yes I know but with the caveat that it might be 100 or so miles further south and that it has eps support I think is the sensible play. looks to me now that to not have a very cold and snowy 24 hours for the SE corner now would be impossible.