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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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JBMWeatherForever Aficionado

JBMWeatherForever

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man
Posted

Looks like winter hasn't finished with us yet. Certainly a significant trend today towards a return of the beast !  

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Frost HoIIow Accomplished

Frost HoIIow

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
Posted
20 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Looks like winter hasn't finished with us yet. Certainly a significant trend today towards a return of the beast !  

Let's hope so - March in my opinion is an extension of winter :good: a bit like September is an extension of summer. 

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted
1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Let's hope so - March in my opinion is an extension of winter :good: a bit like September is an extension of summer. 

yes i'm still in winter mode in march so let the snow return

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted (edited)

Day 6 ICON...

Incoming S UK-

icon-1-144.png?12-00

-16 touches Kent

icon-1-153.png?12-00

icon-0-156.png?12-00

I think if -16 isotherm hit the UK on that date, it would be the latest recorded in the modern recordable era...saw it on other forum.

Edited by CreweCold
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

GEM appears to be latching on early doors...

gem-0-102.png?00

Sending LP SE

UKMO day 5!

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Edited by CreweCold
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

IKON 00z / UKMO 00z

AWSOME

789C4985-C869-437D-B456-400B52C6DBF6.thumb.png.e27833d76d7da56a82be495bd7e7e9c8.pngA4A4F6E7-91D9-42E2-A0C5-47D3476FA7D4.thumb.png.26646b2746ee8c93687a5889c03374f1.png

By day 6 the GFS has a finger of very cold upper air directed at the UK

gfs-1-144.png?0

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

ECM a humdinger at 120 this morning

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

EC 120!!

great angle of attack!! 

Main thrust of cold much further north.

IMG_3443.thumb.PNG.d9e1e76801e4fa4a3e81666fdc67f351.PNG

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Plenty of snow for the U.K. at 144!

IMG_3444.thumb.PNG.cb89284f984e2cc51cd06a9da5eb19f3.PNG

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)

ECM a humdinger at 120 this morning and a channel low with minus 8 uppers next Sunday anyone.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

192, winds go northerly with a large Atlantic ridge in place. A very cold run.

IMG_3446.thumb.PNG.93047a96a398bb872a6dc769eb1ecbca.PNG

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted (edited)

Good that ecm op is at the northern end of the envelope - everyone  around for the 12z’s I assume ?.

strange to see the ec op give a kind of accelerated version of the last spell re the beasterly and it’s interaction with a system just to our sw. Not much goes wrong with that run. Plenty of snow around and dp’s Above zero affecting the se only for a short period prior to the n swing which is unpredictable 

whilst the detail on the cold pool is not predictable, that ec op run is straight out of its eps from yesterday - even the depth of the upper trough at day 9 with 552dam through central Spain. Very plausible with any detail to be nailed down. 

Edited by bluearmy
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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

Well there have been worse charts to wake up to. The cold pool to the east exceptional for the time of year. Snow showers from the sea and longer spells of snow pushing from the south. The easterly begins at 96 hrs staggering really

Screenshot_20180312-070036.png

Screenshot_20180312-070052.png

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ScottishSnowStorm Explorer

ScottishSnowStorm

Posted
Posted

GEFS 0z has more members than the 18z going for sub -10 uppers at 850hpa in fife scotland so a step forward on there and ECM looking better 

Screenshot_20180312-070004.thumb.png.1a293749f484d1ee70520d9addd36270.png

Screenshot_20180312-070021.thumb.png.086b8fd2c4a684626afc9a75a3c49ac1.png

Hopefully we can keep seeing upgrades and the block getting into Greenland and not collapsing as there is plenty cold uppers to tap into over russia by this point 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

UPGRADES this morning for another beast from the east and then the north on the ECM . Good few days coming on here ?

IMG_1918.PNG

IMG_1919.PNG

IMG_1921.PNG

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

UKMO has -12 850's clipping the SE at t144 -8's get to about the Midlands with the far west around 0 to -4

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.8bf9ff6cd877b77d6c72fd606deae889.GIF

The London mean has had a significant drop overnight with -8 on the 18th which looks to be the peak for the colder air. Crucially for coldies, the op is on the warm side around the peak of the cold

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.45266eed5f37464a7cecf5b2a0d15946.png

 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted

Just concentrating on the cold pool, the eps clusters show the op to be a bit far to the north with the lowest z500 heights clustered around 520 dam around se England day 6. Going on the eps , somewhere across lowland england/Wales/Ireland will get plastered over the the weekend ! 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

Decent upgrade here on the ECM eps from the 12z although the op was on the colder side 

Screenshot_20180312-075608.thumb.png.b375e58d03585aba660d12c4455d348b.png

Screenshot_20180312-075644.thumb.png.0630bf257b3f3cbe08ee35ff37e0eff3.png

Remarkable for any time in Winter, never mind the middle to end of March.

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just concentrating on the cold pool, the eps clusters show the op to be a bit far to the north with the lowest z500 heights clustered around 520 dam around se England day 6. Going on the eps , somewhere across lowland england/Wales/Ireland will get plastered over the the weekend ! 

Hopefully London!  We deserve a bit of luck in the capital!!

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted
3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

By day 6 the GFS has a finger of very cold upper air directed at the UK

gfs-1-144.png?0

The beastlet definitely looks to be nosing in on Scotland on this morning's GFS ?

S80312-080618.jpg

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