Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[ICE COLD]

Make that -12 850s in ?

[Daniel*]

Upgrades ahoy better orientated block thus a more consolidated beast on course..

[SMU]

The 18 GFS & IKON both upgrading tonight-

The 18z GFS has a distinct upper air cold pool @168 - The Allignment & depth & windflow almost identical to Feb 2009....

[blizzard81]

Why do these modern day easterlies always seem to have saggy bottoms? They need to do more glute exercises! 

[ICE COLD]

Really cold for the south and east 

[Daniel*]

Cold pool seems to keep upgrading.. quite extraordinary -16C uppers getting as west as France.

v

Edited March 11, 2018 by Daniel*

[ICE COLD]

The cold is spreading west and north over the uk at T207 ?

[Bobby93]

Things beginning to look very interesting now regarding another beast/easterly.

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The 18 GFS & IKON both upgrading tonight-

The 18z GFS has a distinct upper air cold pool @168 - The Allignment & depth & windflow almost identical to Feb 2009....

Yes the shape is very similar although 09 a bit further North I would say, remember feb 09 was an big event for the Eastern half of the North as well as the SE.

Edited March 11, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[blizzard81]

Fax charts are late tonight - always are when at a crucial stage! 

[SLEETY]

This is just crazy if you think about it.For years we have been chasing the -10 hpa line in the winter months ,yet in the space of a few weeks  we are chasing the -15c almost,again,in spring,and ice days AGAIN

Cant imagine how cold this winter might have been,had this occurred early January,next winter looking mighty interesting.

[cold snap]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

This is just crazy if you think about it.For years we have been chasing the -10 hpa line in the winter months ,yet in the space of a few weeks  we are chasing the -15c almost,again,in spring,and ice days AGAIN

Cant imagine how cold this winter might have been,had this occurred early January,next winter looking mighty interesting.

My thoughts exactly.

 

Probably the coldest winter in living memory

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

This is just crazy if you think about it.For years we have been chasing the -10 hpa line in the winter months ,yet in the space of a few weeks  we are chasing the -15c almost,again,in spring,and ice days AGAIN

Cant imagine how cold this winter might have been,had this occurred early January,next winter looking mighty interesting.

Indeed! It does bode very well with regards to the prospects for next winter. I am very excited about those prospects

Edited March 11, 2018 by blizzard81

[Wilxy]

18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The 18 GFS & IKON both upgrading tonight-

The 18z GFS has a distinct upper air cold pool @168 - The Allignment & depth & windflow almost identical to Feb 2009....

Thought you signed out a week ago!

I guess the weather has other idea's!

[Nick F]

Pretty good support from the 12z EPS for a 500mb ridge centred to the north or just NE of the UK next Sunday, the surface high displaced further east over Scandinavia. Cold air escaping west underneath, though how cold uncertain this far out

 

I can't say this month has been boring weather-wise, the BFTE to start the month, bringing a wind so cold I that's I don't think I've experience since Jan 1987, thunderstorm this afternoon in London, now prospect of the BFTE part 2 the sequel. Many month's pass without interest weatherwise, but this month certainly bucking the trend.

 

Edited March 11, 2018 by Nick F

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze.

It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading for the troposphere

Who remembers the last 'dry' easterly? Now with a stronger sun...

 

Yes it was commented on the last easterly with the models not showing much PPN and we know what happened and with some moisture bumping into the flow from the east and a system pushing in from the SW like storm Ellen proved can provide the perfect scenario,now if we get this easterly number 2 we could be in for a better convective type easterly given the suns strength as we move on towards spring

now for some model info,will we get heights to our NE or NW,the innitial push of heights to our NE looks favourable to start with then a retrograde to shift heights to our NW in ten days time

ecm mean at 144 then at 240

gefs at the same time

both show a retrograde to Greenland with a marked trough dropping SW out of NE russia/Scandinavia

the CPC reflects this

De-built temps,dewpoint and wind direction shows a cooldown from around the 17th and the control and op have been showing this since yesterday and now have more support from the ens

i would like one last hurrah before spring sets in but i don't know when that will be.

 

Edited March 11, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Daniel*]

According to clusters at day seven too there is 100% support for a great push of deep cold will head well west into Western Europe. So we have a fighting chance!  

Only smallest cluster keeps cold air displaced to our south, could be rather wintry for the south - madness.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

According to clusters at day seven too there is 100% support for a great push of deep cold will head well west into Western Europe. So we have a fighting chance!  

Only smallest cluster keeps cold air displaced to our south, could be rather wintry for the south - madness.

Slight improvement in GEFS mean at 126 as well, cold push further west at a stage where its further North than on last run, tiny adjustment but right direction.

[SMU]

P3 is the 2009 redux

[Paul_1978]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

12z ECM mean turns a bit cooler towards the end of next week but not desperately cold with the main pool of cold air staying further east out the way of the UK

Given the ever-strengthening sunshine, it would be pleasant enough if you had sunshine and light winds

 

I really have no idea why people rate SS’s posts like this as “funny”. 

[Paul_1978]

38 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed! It does bode very well with regards to the prospects for next winter. I am very excited about those prospects

Been off the forum for a few days so apologies if I have missed something, but how does what is happening now in March bode well for next winter which is 9 months away?

[Derecho]

Swingometer updated again, a further subtle swing to easterlies so game on. A few of the mild/average members still bring the easterly close to the UK.

P3 is the star candidate though P18 is also very good. P3 actually brings the really cold air in on saturday! Wouldn't mind if the output swang to that member tomorrow 

[Man With Beard]

26 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Pretty good support from the 12z EPS for a 500mb ridge centred to the north or just NE of the UK next Sunday, the surface high displaced further east over Scandinavia. Cold air escaping west underneath, though how cold uncertain this far out

 

 

Yes some potentially very tasty clusters in there. I'm feeling a bit more positive today than yesterday on getting "deep" cold to the UK. I would caution though that energy is still going over the top into Northern Scandinavia, so the beast from the east will need to be sharpish as this type of ridge is prone to getting flattened.

But also of interest for me is a possible attempt at a northerly immediately after. Several clusters are interested in this.

A couple of these show strong troughing towards our east, which is often accompanied by a ridge to the west. 

If a northerly could follow immediately on from an easterly, there's the chance a snow bearing "mild sector" in the transition between the two with an Atlantic front affected by cold from both sides, as a couple of these clusters show could happen.

Also, for me it is the northerly that could have the longevity, not the easterly.

Not a done deal of course, there are some runs promoting a stronger Azores High by the end of March but I think the odds have shifted tonight towards a continuation of weather more akin to winter than spring.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I really have no idea why people rate SS’s posts like this as “funny”. 

Indeed, it's actually a good accurate description of what tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows..nothing funny about it..anyway, another very interesting period, at least for the south is looking increasingly likely from next weekend or soon after. 

[Bottled Snow]

lets' see what the morning runs bring but as we stand right now, the chance of another cold easterly outbreak is increasing significantly .....