Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - personally I just think we will fail but plenty of options on the table down the line from the North / North East, either way I just hope this dispels the myth that you cant get severe cold very late in season, you can - its just that in any given random year without knowing any teleconnections to know how the dice are loaded, it might be a 50-1 shot in late March as opposed to a 10-1 shot in mid February but it CAN happen.

True it shows what’s possible. 

The cold spell recently was astonishing in terms of depth of cold this late and windchill which is something unusual for the UK.

I would love to see that same set up in mid winter to see just how cold that could have been.

Normally as you head into March the best flow is from the ne or n as the continent starts to hold more warmth from the increase in solar energy unless that is you get a chunk of the PV dropping south.

Thats really key at this time of year.

 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - personally I just think we will fail but plenty of options on the table down the line from the North / North East, either way I just hope this dispels the myth that you cant get severe cold very late in season, you can - its just that in any given random year without knowing any teleconnections to know how the dice are loaded, it might be a 50-1 shot in late March as opposed to a 10-1 shot in mid February but it CAN happen.

Yer the easterly the other week was exceptional cold and like you say it proves we can still get deep cold and a proper easterly . I do think this year is a turning point for a run of colder winters . We have had a cluster of milder winters and now I think we will have a cluster of colder winters. ? 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep good until 144 . Didn't the models have it going into France on the last easterly for a good few runs and then in corrected north ?? 

Thing is, it did go to our se. The initial deep cold pool went through Switzerland into e France mon/tues but the second push struck us wed/thurs. no sign at the moment that there would be a second piece of vortex chunk on this occasion. 

[SMU]

Looking much better this eve around the 120 Mark- however still a lot of volatility post that-

We do seem to be homing in on cold though- 

Referencing 2013 again -The cold once modelled just got more significant & deeper, again im expecting more upgrades in the next 24/48 hours

Lowest modelled 850 is -14c ATM in the extreme SE..- possibly enough for an ice day or 2!!!! not far off what we had the other week..

S

Edited March 11, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Daniel*]

This cold pool is ridiculous it’s almost as if I have transported a short while back double the surrealism, truly out this world for mid March is there any prior examples of this occurring at this time of year? I do not believe there is, if this passes it would be more than exceptional, unprecedented. It definitely seems clear for sure some parts of Europe are going back into the freezer, I’d say we have a very reasonable chance. Southern England more margin of error.

[nick sussex]

Early changes to the initial low near the UK are important going forward .

The ECM and UKMO are better at T96 hrs than the GFS .

More dig se and a more negative tilt to the low at that stage increases the chances going forward.

Because of possible phasing issues upstream the more energy you can get going se before that happens again the better the chance .

[MildCarlilse]

18 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer the easterly the other week was exceptional cold and like you say it proves we can still get deep cold and a proper easterly . I do think this year is a turning point for a run of colder winters . We have had a cluster of milder winters and now I think we will have a cluster of colder winters. ? 

I do think this year is a turning point for a run of colder winters . ...It certainly is for many parts of Scotland.

Edited March 11, 2018 by MildCarlilse

[Frosty.]

Minus 13 uppers (850's) across southern uk on the Ecm 12z would be very impressive for the second half of march even though it only lasts for around 24 hours, hopefully on future runs we will see the high corrected further north and the longevity extended considerably to make it something really special but at this range, it's all about trends and certainly this run is a lot more interesting than the Ecm 00z op which was pretty dire..

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended at t168 looks to have a southeasterly

[Summer Sun]

12z ECM mean turns a bit cooler towards the end of next week but not desperately cold with the main pool of cold air staying further east out the way of the UK

Given the ever-strengthening sunshine, it would be pleasant enough if you had sunshine and light winds

 

[bluearmy]

Eps mean look impressively cold day 6/7 

the spreads show a cold pool cluster making it to s half uk days 7/8.

interestingly, they also show a potential reload of vortex into Scandi headed sw behind the deep low that heads se from e Greenland and squeezes the Scandi high out. By that stage, we should see the mid  Atlantic heights taking priority  .........

 

[Mike Poole]

The ECM ensembles look like they are supportive of  some kind of easterly flow at T168:

Still optimistic. Things have a while to run yet.

[bluearmy]

The depth of the euro trough in the extended is very impressive given the range of the forecast and time of year

the 552 dam through s Spain and kissing Algeria. One would assume this could be even lower if the upper trough verifies

a result of the Asian vortex pushing the upper trough south through Scandi coupled with some mid Atlantic ridging 

[Derecho]

I think we are getting a potential synoptic situation where the coldest possible air for the time of year looks to be getting close by in NE Europe. Will it be a direct hit? Even so the ECM is impressively cold despite the UK not being at the centre of the cold pool path.

I wonder what the latest date is for the -15C isotherm to cross the UK? If the jigsaw pieces all fall into place then perhaps it cannot be ruled out.

The thing to note is though is that the Atlantic becomes much weaker at this time of the year. Easterlies are common in late March, just that the whopping cold pool to our east isn't common for the time of year. As Steve mentioned I see a lot of similarities to 2013 here but with a cold pool a bit deeper.

Now the ensembles are churning out more easterlies we can pretty much assume the ops are picking up on a valid signal for an easterly. Will the allignment fall cleanly for us though?

As long as we get a final decent cold spell and get a channel low for one last wintry hurrah I don't mind. Will be interesting to see where the March CET will end up if a cold pool gets stuck over us until the end of the month.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Frosty.]

Looking at all the current available data, a colder Ely / SEly flow from next weekend into week 2 sounds realistic, how cold and for how long is unclear at the moment.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! Perhaps after this mild blip .the freezer touches our toes again.... Strangely the ecm and gfs at this time period are singing from the same hymn sheet

[Derecho]

What is most remarkable about the ECM is that even though its not a direct hit the uppers are still really exceptional for the time of year. Only March 1853 comes close in the 2nd half of March after looking through the wetterzentrale archives.

So if the core of the cold pool hits us we could assume that many late March temperature records could tumble.

Still a long way to go though! lol

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

What is most remarkable about the ECM is that even though its not a direct hit the uppers are still really exceptional for the time of year. Only March 1853 comes close in the 2nd half of March after looking through the wetterzentrale archives.

So if the core of the cold pool hits us we could assume that many late March temperature records could tumble.

Still a long way to go though! lol

Wow.!  Thats commitment!

[Derecho]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Wow.!  Thats commitment!

I had to download the daily CET series from the Meto and sort it in excel to find what the coldest periods were, which are all pretty much in the 1800s lol.

Looking at the 100 coldest CET days in the 2nd half of March 77 occurred before 1950 and 68 before 1910. However there are 6 days from 2013 thrown in there.

Looking through the ECM ensembles it has a lot of support 

A few members have the -15C isotherm close to or over the UK around next Monday morning.

Impressive.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I had to download the daily CET series from the Meto and sort it in excel to find what the coldest periods were, which are all pretty much in the 1800s lol.

Looking at the 100 coldest CET days in the 2nd half of March 77 occurred before 1950 and 68 before 1910. However there are 6 days from 2013 thrown in there.

There is a way to look at these without downloading using a spreadsheet, or was back in 2011 anyway , I ve got the whole lot printed out somewhere but cant remember where, in rank order for every month.

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I had to download the daily CET series from the Meto and sort it in excel to find what the coldest periods were, which are all pretty much in the 1800s lol.

Looking at the 100 coldest CET days in the 2nd half of March 77 occurred before 1950 and 68 before 1910. However there are 6 days from 2013 thrown in there.

Looking through the ECM ensembles it has a lot of support 

A few members have the -15C isotherm close to or over the UK around next Monday morning.

Impressive.

Weather stations were different in the Victorian period .. do you really believe that data ???and weather stations have appeared in urban areas over recent years . demographics  and a growing population , Weather stations are in the wrong place , put the bloody weather station far away from civiliseation

[johnholmes]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Weather stations were different in the Victorian period .. do you really believe that data ???and weather stations have appeared in urban areas over recent years . demographics  and a growing population , Weather stations are in the wrong place , put the bloody weather station far away from civiliseation

And who pays for them?

 

[Derecho]

11 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Weather stations were different in the Victorian period .. do you really believe that data ???and weather stations have appeared in urban areas over recent years . demographics  and a growing population , Weather stations are in the wrong place , put the bloody weather station far away from civiliseation

lol this has been studied many times and the CET is considered the best daily temperature record in the world. Anyhow this paper should prove useful reading.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/Parker_etalIJOC1992_dailyCET.pdf

and if the variability ties in with SLP patterns, is SLP data also wrong as well? 

Anyhow I shan't digress any further as it's for another thread. Lets keep our eyes on what could be quite a notable cold wave coming up for some lucky areas of Europe.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[chionomaniac]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! Perhaps after this mild blip .the freezer touches our toes again.... Strangely the ecm and gfs at this time period are singing from the same hymn sheet

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze.

It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading for the troposphere

Who remembers the last 'dry' easterly? Now with a stronger sun...

 

Edited March 11, 2018 by chionomaniac

[ICE COLD]

-9 850s in next Sunday ??