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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The eps clusters would be wintry Dec/jan/Feb but as we head into second half march, latitude and elevation will be even more relevant if you are looking for a final snowy hurrah. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.

Could just end up being a Brief from the East. High pressure from the South looking a strong influence on anything full-on Easterly, in the reliable.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Wrong thread. 

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

06z GFS London mean again doesn't drop below -3 through-out

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.2dd0571f03a6b62e7dd026564f00ba42.png

Edinburgh mean also doesn't drop all that low maybe down to -4 for a day or so next week and again in la la land but on the whole never far from the long-term average after this milder spell eases

gefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.ba1b054059c47a7ca913ce0c1c44c4bd.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I was going to say it's a surprisingly wintry update today but having just seen the Gfs 6z operational it's not surprising at all as it shows some unseasonably wintry weather at times, especially further north!:D:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I was going to say it's a surprisingly wintry update today but having just seen the Gfs 6z operational it's not surprising at all as it shows some unseasonably wintry weather at times, especially further north!:D:cold:

Is the beast from the east still showing

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
34 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I was going to say it's a surprisingly wintry update today but having just seen the Gfs 6z operational it's not surprising at all as it shows some unseasonably wintry weather at times, especially further north!:D:cold:

Clearly either mogreps or glosea is seeing blocking to our north or northeast 

A Griceland high anomoly or wedge is pretty much assured days 6/8 - if only it was  etc etc ....

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In 2013 it took the GFS down to about T72-96 to fathom it out - where as UKMO 96/120-

So if its going to happen expect a biggish swing this afternoon....

Expect the models to move the wedge further west as we go through 120->96

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

The reason no one has posted the 12s I expect is because they look like this, in the reliable:

UKMO T120

UW120-21.GIF?10-17

GFS

gfs-0-120.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Further reaches  of gfs 12z looking very wintry, ties in with the wintry updated met office outlook in the medium to long range. Mogreps sniffing out something similar perhaps.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

I'm liking the UKMO at 144, the flow gets forced under the developing wedge of high pressure to the north pushing through into Scandi. 

In turn,  with a stronger signal beyond this stage for an Atlantic/Greenland ridge and sceuro trough (going on info posted in here regarding the spreads etc) we could well drag in some very cold air.

It seems the eventual pattern will be with some kind of Atlantic ridge it's just how we get there that could potentially inlvove another beast of sorts.

but as I said UKMO 144 looking quite good if you read the potential developments from here

IMG_3428.thumb.PNG.c2d9e9491b2b010361aae0a0b1b818c0.PNG

I know we are not seeing any WAA to inflate the high at our longitude, like the ICON shows,  but in a way this could well help in the longer term with the WAA well to the west.....we shall see eh.

 

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM doing its own thing at T120, undercut here we come at T144. This could be a fantastic run, lets see.

ECM1-120.gif

ECM0-120.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM looking very interesting at T144:

ECM1-144.GIF?10-0

Clear divergence from UKMO and GFS from T120.

I wonder if there's a twist in this winter come spring?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

ECM chilly at T240 ?

IMG_1894.PNG

With some really cold air waiting to come in from the North East .IMG_1895.thumb.PNG.c992e0fa8f705a9762c2571d7880dd36.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Great to see the Ecm 12z eventually going cold and not forgetting the Gfs 12z which becomes very cold during low res!...hopefully winter isn't finished with us yet!:cold::)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Easterly from UKMO extended?

ukm2.2018031712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.55ae0e480f2f6831476b930e1a63f209.png

Yes, although anything falling from that would be rain I would have thought, based on the 144.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Definite downward trend with the 12z GEFS

image.thumb.png.51e28a0189c11a04902920fdbe5cdd4c.png

The Op run is at the bottom of the pack but it does have considerable support.

So, firming up on cold snap / spell towards 19th & onwards.:good:

Edited by Purga
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