Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Frosty.]

Call me picky but I would like the high further north next time Ecm!!!!!

[nick sussex]

I have two questions for SM what happened to your hibernation ? 

Second I remember last week you had an easy way to work out surface temps , how much do we add to the 850 value given where we are in March ? Thanks 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I have two questions for SM what happened to your hibernation ? 

Second I remember last week you had an easy way to work out surface temps , how much do we add to the 850 value given where we are in March ? Thanks 

Hi mate

I saw the UKMO 144 yesterday & new we were coasting towards 2013 ( GFS was poor then )

Surface temps for now day max

+11/12 on full cloudy skies -

+13/14 on sunny skies...

S

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi mate

I saw the UKMO 144 yesterday & new we were coasting towards 2013 ( GFS was poor then )

Surface temps for now day max

+11/12 on full cloudy skies -

+13/14 on sunny skies...

S

Thanks Steve .  Great to see you back posting , let’s hope you have to delay your hibernation for at least a few more weeks !

Edited March 9, 2018 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

I hope no one is heading to Spain or Portugal in the next 10 days or so it looks very wet in some parts with the jet unusually far south

[SLEETY]

March 2013 produced powder snow here mid March,on the South East Coast!  and this cold blast looks colder than that.Amazing really.Are we about to see the return of proper winters again.

Edited March 9, 2018 by SLEETY

[blizzard81]

Amazing ecm run but this is not nailed on yet. Ensembles will be a must view tonight. 

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I hope no one is heading to Spain or Portugal in the next 10 days or so it looks very wet in some parts with the jet unusually far south

What a coincidence that the March I lived in Madrid was 2013 and it poured with rain all month, while the UK had prolonged cold spells. I wonder if this March will turn out the same by the end.

[nick sussex]

The best thing about tonights Euros is we won’t have to wait for long to see if the MB has a chance of arriving.

The evolution starts day 5 , the more elongation and dig south of the trough then the better the chance .

If you get to day 6 with the negative tilt the cold pool to the ne is lined up well.

You want that  pointing wsw towards the UK.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2018 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks to have an east-west split  drier in the east with the exception of NE Scotland and wetter in the west

 

[Daniel*]

At least I don’t think we can really talk of only it was mid winter, I’d see it as a lovely bonus. We have only gone out relatively speaking out a rather epic cold spell, and well that wouldn’t have been out of place in deepest, darkest winter. Certainly looks very interesting the model output the atmosphere is geared towards cold and blocking patterns into spring, this SSW has saved this winter imo if it were not for cold spell gone it would have gone down poorly here.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks to have an east-west split  drier in the east with the exception of NE Scotland and wetter in the west

 

Low sliding down into France. Easterly incoming. 

[Frosty.]

What's great is both the gfs and ecm generally agreeing about another attack from the east..hope it gathers momentum..get this forum buzzing again as it's been dead in here since the freeze ended!

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Whats next after the beast?

ANOTHER BLOODY BEAST

Edited March 9, 2018 by IPredictASnowStorm

[Rustynailer]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What's great is both the gfs and ecm generally agreeing about another attack from the east..hope it gathers momentum..get this forum buzzing again as it's been dead in here since the freeze ended!

The good model outputs noticed by , people who searched the Internet in the days before wikitube. ?

[Mr.B]

So good to suddenly see all my favourite posters again! Hello Beast No.2!

[Mike Poole]

Until today I'd only given cursory glances at the models after the Beast from the East, but interest is stirring for a possible redux next weekend.  Personal preference would normally be for a warm up by this point, but if cold is to prevail I'd prefer snow to cold rain thank you!  ECM at T168 the starting point for the interest:

Mean at same time gives some support but there are clearly other options on the table:

Going to need a few more runs I think!

Main areas of uncertainty to NE:

 

GEFS ensemble mean for comparison, the signal clearer on ECM:

Edited March 9, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z London mean shows it not dropping below -3 op well on the cold side for now around the 17th to 19th

Edited March 9, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Ice Man 85]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What's great is both the gfs and ecm generally agreeing about another attack from the east..hope it gathers momentum..get this forum buzzing again as it's been dead in here since the freeze ended!

Netweather best start drafting in the gerbils to power the servers then! was like a yoyo last time

 

[jules216]

The beast from the East was fun, why not have a repeat, Baldwin/Dunkerton study would agree  also stratosphere is undergoing final warming soon, zonal winds back in easterly again, bye bye Atlantic, welcome back Arctic 

Edited March 9, 2018 by jules216

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, jules216 said:

The beast from the East was fun, why not have a repeat, Baldwin/Dunkerton study would agree  also stratosphere is undergoing final warming soon, zonal winds back in easterly again, bye bye Atlantic, welcome back Arctic 

Agreed, let's have an encore, the 12z runs have reignited hopes of a wintry spell in less than 10 days!..fingers crossed etc

After the Beast, what next?..another Beast hopefully!!

Edited March 9, 2018 by Frosty.

[snowray]

54 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks to have an east-west split  drier in the east with the exception of NE Scotland and wetter in the west

 

It would seem to me looking at that chart that UKMO are running with the ECM at day 7. Wouldn't it be fun if the 18z were to come on board this evening?

Edited March 9, 2018 by snowray

[Purga]

Marvelous charts, if they come of - just in time for my birthday !

 

Edited March 9, 2018 by Purga

[Singularity]

So... those suspicions knocking around are bearing fruit all at once this evening. Too far out at this time to consider it a victory of course.

We'll almost certainly have a smaller prize to play for this time, but it should also be much less inclined to 'overshoot' the UK like the last one did; better chance it's followed up by blocking Greenland-Iceland as opposed to Greenland-Canada.

Usually I dislike cold spells mid-March onward, but if 850s could get to -10 or below while the high is not too close by, the large snow/hail shower potential is of interest given that even with the unusually dry imported air and weaker sun that we saw to end February, some showers did manage to initiate over land.

You see, having seen a half-foot of level snow last week, I am not so worried about whether much accumulates (more than very briefly like I saw in March 2013; gone within half an hour). For this reason chasing this 'child of the beast' will not cause me anywhere near as much tension. Very nice to take a more relaxed approach for a change .

[January Snowstorm]

Well I think the potential showing here will get most of us out of hibernation. Going by the last extraordinary spell it isn't too late either as March can and does deliver...

Roll on 18z?